2020 season · final

Jacksonville Jaguars, 2020: game by game

The Jaguars went 1–15 in 2020; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 3.3 wins. Luck cost them 2.3: the 4th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 1–6.

Every game

How often the Jaguars win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Colts	W 27–20	34%	+66
Week 2	@ Titans	L 30–33	32%	−32
Week 3	vs Dolphins	L 13–31	36%	−36
Week 4	@ Bengals	L 25–33	30%	−30
Week 5	@ Texans	L 14–30	8%	−8
Week 6	vs Lions	L 16–34	16%	−16
Week 7	@ Chargers	L 29–39	19%	−19
Week 9	vs Texans	L 25–27	37%	−37
Week 10	@ Packers	L 20–24	12%	−12
Week 11	vs Steelers	L 3–27	5%	−5
Week 12	vs Browns	L 25–27	27%	−27
Week 13	@ Vikings	L 24–27	26%	−26
Week 14	vs Titans	L 10–31	9%	−9
Week 15	@ Ravens	L 14–40	24%	−24
Week 16	vs Bears	L 17–41	13%	−13
Week 17	@ Colts	L 14–28	3%	−3

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 +66 vs IND

Wk 2 −32 @ TEN

Wk 3 −36 vs MIA

Wk 4 −30 @ CIN

Wk 5 −8 @ HOU

Wk 6 −16 vs DET

Wk 7 −19 @ LAC

Wk 9 −37 vs HOU

Wk 10 −12 @ GB

Wk 11 −5 vs PIT

Wk 12 −27 vs CLE

Wk 13 −26 @ MIN

Wk 14 −9 vs TEN

Wk 15 −24 @ BAL

Wk 16 −13 vs CHI

Wk 17 −3 @ IND

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Jaguars’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

Kind	Wins	Points
Rest	−0.05	−2.2
Injuries	−0.07	−3.5
Kicks	−0.08	−1.9
Judgment calls	−0.26	−10.2
3rd & 4th downs	−0.32	−6.1