luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 11 2020 · November 22, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Steelers at Jaguars, Week 11 2020: who deserved to win?

The Steelers beat the Jaguars 27–3, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Steelers win 10 of 10. The Jaguars had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 11 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

Before kickoff the Steelers were 79% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 8:51 left): C. Boswell missed a 45-yard field goal, worth 14 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

Final

Pittsburgh Steelers 27
Jacksonville Jaguars 3

November 22, 2020 · TIAA Bank Stadium · Closing line: Steelers −11

Luck index +5 Steelers about even · −5 Jaguars

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Steelers win 10, Jaguars win 0.

  1. 1 PIT 45 JAX 10
  2. 2 PIT 42 JAX 13
  3. 3 PIT 48 JAX 23
  4. 4 PIT 41 JAX 21
  5. 5 PIT 34 JAX 17
  6. 6 PIT 28 JAX 14
  7. 7 PIT 32 JAX 20
  8. 8 PIT 23 JAX 14
  9. 9 PIT 23 JAX 17
  10. 10 PIT 15 JAX 13

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Steelers win 95% of them, Jaguars 5%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 24.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Steelers by 17+62.8%
Steelers by 9–1621.3%
Steelers by 1–810.8%
Level after regulation0.6%
Jaguars by 1–83.5%
Jaguars by 9–160.8%
Jaguars by 17+0.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.4 points to the Steelers: the final margin was Steelers by 24, without the luck Steelers by 23.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. McLaughlin, 41 yds made · 87% expected
  • C. Boswell, 45 yds missed · 84% expected
  • C. Boswell, 44 yds made · 84% expected
  • C. Boswell, 47 yds made · 79% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Steelers 6 for 42 yards, Jaguars 8 for 105 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 9:49 Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact on the Jaguars (Myles Jack), 15 yards +7% PIT +1.1 pts
Q2 6:19 Unnecessary Roughness on the Steelers (Steven Nelson), 15 yards +4% JAX +1.8 pts
Q2 0:15 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars (Chris Claybrooks), 29 yards +1% PIT +1.3 pts
Q3 10:54 Defensive Offside on the Steelers (Bud Dupree), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% JAX +0.6 pts
Q3 10:37 False Start on the Jaguars (James Robinson), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% PIT +0.7 pts
Q3 10:13 False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PIT +0.9 pts
Q3 5:07 Delay of Game on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PIT +1.2 pts
Q3 1:52 False Start on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% JAX +0.7 pts
Q3 0:04 Defensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Terrell Edmunds), 7 yards +1% JAX +0.3 pts
Q4 12:39 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars (D.J. Hayden), 21 yards +1% PIT +2.6 pts
Q4 11:48 False Start on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% JAX +0.7 pts
Q4 9:06 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% PIT +2.1 pts
Q4 7:06 Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact on the Jaguars (Josiah Scott), 15 yards 0% PIT +1.8 pts
Q4 3:37 Delay of Game on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% JAX +0.6 pts

Steelers penalties, every game · Jaguars penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Jaguars’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 67%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jaguars were ahead in it, below while the Steelers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:02 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected +5% JAX JAX: Field goal
2 Q1 8:51 C. Boswell missed a 45-yard field goalKicks · 84% expected for him, 8 of 9 from 45+ before +14% JAX PIT: Punt
3 Q1 3:10 The Steelers converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +7% PIT PIT: Punt
4 Q1 0:18 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +4% PIT JAX: Punt
5 Q2 9:49 Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact on the Jaguars (Myles Jack), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 9 flags in 1041 snaps before, position avg 1 per 395 +7% PIT PIT: Touchdown
6 Q2 8:17 The Steelers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +8% PIT PIT: Touchdown
7 Q2 6:19 Unnecessary Roughness on the Steelers (Steven Nelson), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 1665 snaps before, position avg 1 per 207 +4% JAX JAX: Turnover
8 Q2 1:17 The Steelers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +6% PIT PIT: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • C.J. Henderson (JAX CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Josh Lambo (JAX K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Sidney Jones (JAX CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Josh Jones (JAX S), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Abry Jones (JAX DT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Vance McDonald (PIT TE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Steelers 100% · Jaguars 0%

Final margin
Steelers by 24
Luck in points
0.4 for the Steelers
Luck-adjusted margin
Steelers by 23.6
Replay with same day's form
Steelers 95% · Jaguars 5% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2020 games · Steelers · Jaguars

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