luckadjusted

Week 11 2020 · November 22, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Chiefs at Raiders, Week 11 2020: who deserved to win?

The Chiefs beat the Raiders 35–31, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Chiefs win 4 of 10.

Before kickoff the Chiefs were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:29 left): Defensive Offside on the Chiefs (Chris Jones), 6 yards, wiping out the play, worth 45 points of win probability to the Raiders.

Final

Kansas City Chiefs 35
Las Vegas Raiders 31

November 22, 2020 · Allegiant Stadium · Closing line: Chiefs −7.5

Luck index +57 Chiefs lucky · −57 Raiders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Chiefs win 4, Raiders win 6.

  1. 1 KC 49 LV 31
  2. 2 KC 31 LV 21
  3. 3 KC 31 LV 24
  4. 4 KC 30 LV 27
  5. 5 KC 27 LV 29
  6. 6 KC 22 LV 26
  7. 7 KC 20 LV 27
  8. 8 KC 27 LV 38
  9. 9 KC 19 LV 36
  10. 10 KC 17 LV 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Chiefs win 43% of them, Raiders 57%, counting the 7% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chiefs by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Chiefs by 17+7.2%
Chiefs by 9–1612.0%
Chiefs by 1–823.5%
Level after regulation6.9%
Raiders by 1–825.2%
Raiders by 9–1614.6%
Raiders by 17+10.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Chiefs by 4. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Chiefs by 7.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

When it happened

Raiders’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 77%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Raiders were ahead in it, below while the Chiefs were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 4:46 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expectedUnsportsmanlike Conduct on the Raiders, 15 yardsJudgment calls +17% KC LV: Field goal
2 Q3 5:13 The Raiders converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +7% LV LV: Touchdown
3 Q3 0:53 The Raiders converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +10% LV LV: Touchdown
4 Q4 8:36 The Chiefs converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 66% expected +12% KC KC: Touchdown
5 Q4 2:29 Defensive Offside on the Chiefs (Chris Jones), 6 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 14 flags in 1202 snaps before, position avg 1 per 262 +45% LV LV: Touchdown
6 Q4 2:16 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chiefs (Bashaud Breeland), 22 yardsJudgment calls · 13 flags in 1421 snaps before, position avg 1 per 207 +18% LV LV: Touchdown
7 Q4 1:53 The Raiders converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected +11% LV LV: Touchdown
8 Q4 1:14 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expected +10% KC KC: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Lamarcus Joyner (LV CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Clelin Ferrell (LV DE), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Cory Littleton (LV LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Lamarcus Joyner (LV S), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Sam Young (LV T), out · 0.2 pts
  • Mitchell Schwartz (KC T), out (IR) · 1.5 pts
  • Sammy Watkins (KC WR), out · 0.7 pts
  • Kelechi Osemele (KC G), out (IR) · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Chiefs 94% · Raiders 6%

Final margin
Chiefs by 4
Luck in points
3.4 for the Raiders
Luck-adjusted margin
Chiefs by 7.4
Replay with same day's form
Chiefs 43% · Raiders 57% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2020 games · Chiefs · Raiders

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