luckadjusted

Week 11 2020 · November 19, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Cardinals at Seahawks, Week 11 2020: who deserved to win?

The Seahawks beat the Cardinals 28–21, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Seahawks win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 3.1 points to the Seahawks.

Before kickoff the Seahawks were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 2:35 left): Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 13 points of win probability to the Cardinals.

Final

Arizona Cardinals 21
Seattle Seahawks 28

November 19, 2020 · Lumen Field · Closing line: Seahawks −3

Luck index +57 Seahawks lucky · −57 Cardinals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cardinals win 6, Seahawks win 4.

  1. 1 ARI 32 SEA 6
  2. 2 ARI 34 SEA 17
  3. 3 ARI 27 SEA 14
  4. 4 ARI 17 SEA 10
  5. 5 ARI 35 SEA 31
  6. 6 ARI 22 SEA 20
  7. 7 ARI 33 SEA 35
  8. 8 ARI 28 SEA 34
  9. 9 ARI 19 SEA 31
  10. 10 ARI 17 SEA 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cardinals win 57% of them, Seahawks 43%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cardinals by 17+14.2%
Cardinals by 9–1616.1%
Cardinals by 1–826.2%
Level after regulation3.0%
Seahawks by 1–820.3%
Seahawks by 9–1612.5%
Seahawks by 17+7.7%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Seahawks by 7. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Seahawks by 8.2.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Myers, 27 yds made · 97% expected
  • J. Myers, 41 yds made · 84% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Seahawks’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Seahawks were ahead in it, below while the Cardinals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 6:45 The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +6% ARI SEA: Punt
2 Q1 2:35 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +13% ARI ARI: Touchdown
3 Q2 5:03 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +6% ARI ARI: Punt
4 Q2 0:20 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals (Patrick Peterson), 46 yardsJudgment calls · 7 flags in 1444 snaps before, position avg 1 per 207 +9% SEA SEA: Field goal
5 Q3 6:31 Taunting on the Cardinals (Dre Kirkpatrick), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 5 flags in 751 snaps before, position avg 1 per 207 +5% SEA SEA: Touchdown
6 Q4 11:48 Illegal Shift on the Seahawks, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +6% ARI ARI: Safety
7 Q4 9:18 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals (J.R. Sweezy), 2 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 9 flags in 1485 snaps before, position avg 1 per 210 +12% SEA SEA: Field goal
8 Q4 0:38 The Cardinals were stopped on 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +8% SEA –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Shaquill Griffin (SEA CB), out · 0.7 pts
  • Quinton Dunbar (SEA CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Chris Carson (SEA RB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Jordan Simmons (SEA G), out · 0.3 pts
  • Ethan Pocic (SEA G/C), out · 0.2 pts
  • Chandler Jones (ARI LB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Corey Peters (ARI DL), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Darrell Daniels (ARI TE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Justin Murray (ARI OL), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cardinals 20% · Seahawks 80%

Final margin
Seahawks by 7
Luck in points
1.2 for the Cardinals
Luck-adjusted margin
Seahawks by 8.2
Replay with same day's form
Cardinals 57% · Seahawks 43% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2020 games · Cardinals · Seahawks

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