luckadjusted

Week 11 2020 · November 22, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Patriots at Texans, Week 11 2020: who deserved to win?

The Texans beat the Patriots 27–20, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Texans win 6 of 10.

Before kickoff the Patriots were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:18 left): the Patriots were stopped on 4th & 4, worth 14 points of win probability to the Texans.

Final

New England Patriots 20
Houston Texans 27

November 22, 2020 · NRG Stadium · Closing line: Patriots −2.5

Luck index +44 Texans lucky · −44 Patriots

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Patriots win 4, Texans win 6.

  1. 1 NE 28 HOU 10
  2. 2 NE 24 HOU 16
  3. 3 NE 31 HOU 27
  4. 4 NE 14 HOU 12
  5. 5 NE 21 HOU 23
  6. 6 NE 30 HOU 35
  7. 7 NE 14 HOU 22
  8. 8 NE 17 HOU 27
  9. 9 NE 6 HOU 23
  10. 10 NE 13 HOU 35

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Patriots win 44% of them, Texans 56%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texans by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Patriots by 17+7.4%
Patriots by 9–1613.4%
Patriots by 1–822.6%
Level after regulation6.4%
Texans by 1–823.1%
Texans by 9–1614.8%
Texans by 17+12.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Texans by 7. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Texans by 10.6.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • N. Folk, 45 yds made · 80% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 36 yds made · 92% expected
  • N. Folk, 36 yds made · 93% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 46 yds made · 77% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Texans’ chance of winning

As low as 32% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Texans were ahead in it, below while the Patriots were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 4:26 The Texans converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +10% HOU HOU: Touchdown
2 Q2 14:18 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +8% NE NE: Field goal
3 Q2 5:28 The Texans converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +11% HOU HOU: Touchdown
4 Q2 1:03 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Texans, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +9% NE NE: End of half
5 Q3 6:33 The Texans converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +7% HOU HOU: Field goal
6 Q4 11:52 The Patriots converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +9% NE NE: Field goal
7 Q4 6:19 The Texans converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +7% HOU HOU: Field goal
8 Q4 1:18 The Patriots were stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +14% HOU NE: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Laremy Tunsil (HOU T), out · 1.1 pts
  • Benardrick McKinney (HOU ILB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • David Johnson (HOU RB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Senio Kelemete (HOU G), out · 0.2 pts
  • Julian Edelman (NE WR), out (IR) · 0.7 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Patriots 8% · Texans 92%

Final margin
Texans by 7
Luck in points
3.6 for the Patriots
Luck-adjusted margin
Texans by 10.6
Replay with same day's form
Patriots 44% · Texans 56% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2020 games · Patriots · Texans

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