luckadjusted

Week 11 2020 · November 22, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Falcons at Saints, Week 11 2020: who deserved to win?

The Saints beat the Falcons 24–9, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Saints win 9 of 10. The Falcons had the bounces: injuries alone were worth 8.0 points to the Falcons.

Before kickoff the Saints were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 7:01 left): Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 12 points of win probability to the Falcons.

Final

Atlanta Falcons 9
New Orleans Saints 24

November 22, 2020 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome · Closing line: Saints −3.5

Luck index +8 Saints about even · −8 Falcons

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Falcons win 1, Saints win 9.

  1. 1 ATL 24 NO 19
  2. 2 ATL 20 NO 23
  3. 3 ATL 17 NO 23
  4. 4 ATL 16 NO 24
  5. 5 ATL 13 NO 25
  6. 6 ATL 23 NO 37
  7. 7 ATL 27 NO 44
  8. 8 ATL 14 NO 34
  9. 9 ATL 20 NO 44
  10. 10 ATL 3 NO 35

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Falcons win 8% of them, Saints 92%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Saints by 15.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Falcons by 17+0.5%
Falcons by 9–161.8%
Falcons by 1–84.7%
Level after regulation1.8%
Saints by 1–816.1%
Saints by 9–1621.7%
Saints by 17+53.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Saints by 15. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Saints by 35.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • Y. Koo, 28 yds made · 98% expected
  • W. Lutz, 22 yds made · 99% expected
  • Y. Koo, 51 yds made · 75% expected
  • W. Lutz, 53 yds missed · 72% expected
  • Y. Koo, 52 yds made · 74% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Saints’ chance of winning

As low as 36% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Saints were ahead in it, below while the Falcons were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:05 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +8% ATL NO: Punt
2 Q2 14:56 Defensive Holding on the Saints (Malcolm Jenkins), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 6 flags in 1821 snaps before, position avg 1 per 510 +7% ATL ATL: Field goal
3 Q2 14:01 Y. Koo made 51-yard field goalKicks · 75% expected for him, 11 of 12 from 45+ before +6% ATL ATL: Punt
4 Q2 11:14 W. Lutz missed 53-yard field goalKicks · 72% expected for him, 15 of 18 from 45+ before +10% ATL NO: Punt
5 Q2 9:51 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +10% NO ATL: Punt
6 Q2 0:33 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected +9% NO ATL: Turnover
7 Q3 9:14 The Saints converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +9% NO NO: Touchdown
8 Q3 7:01 Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +12% ATL ATL: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Drew Brees (NO QB), out (IR), replaced by t.hill · 7.3 pts
  • Marshon Lattimore (NO CB), out · 1.0 pts
  • Sheldon Rankins (NO DT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Dante Fowler (ATL DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Damontae Kazee (ATL S), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Falcons 0% · Saints 100%

Final margin
Saints by 15
Luck in points
20.4 for the Falcons
Luck-adjusted margin
Saints by 35.4
Replay with same day's form
Falcons 8% · Saints 92% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2020 games · Falcons · Saints

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