luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 11 2020 · November 22, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Bengals at Washington, Week 11 2020: who deserved to win?

Washington beat the Bengals 20–9, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Washington wins 9 of 10.

An off day for the Bengals: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Washington they would win 42% of the time; with this day’s form, 11%. The numbers

Before kickoff Washington was a 56% favorite. The biggest swing (Q1, 5:47 left): R. Bullock missed a 34-yard field goal, worth 10 points of win probability to the Washington.

Final

Cincinnati Bengals 9
Washington Football Team 20

November 22, 2020 · FedExField · Closing line: Washington −2

Luck index +11 Washington about even · −11 Bengals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bengals win 1, Washington wins 9.

  1. 1 CIN 23 WAS 17
  2. 2 CIN 17 WAS 19
  3. 3 CIN 14 WAS 19
  4. 4 CIN 22 WAS 30
  5. 5 CIN 19 WAS 30
  6. 6 CIN 13 WAS 26
  7. 7 CIN 13 WAS 30
  8. 8 CIN 31 WAS 51
  9. 9 CIN 3 WAS 27
  10. 10 CIN 0 WAS 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Bengals

Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Washington they would win 42% of the time; with this day’s form, 11%.

31 points apart for the Bengals: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Bengals offenseEPA per play gained −0.02 +0.08 worse by 0.11
Bengals defenseEPA per play allowed +0.07 +0.17 better by 0.11
Washington offenseEPA per play gained +0.07 +0.04 better by 0.03
Washington defenseEPA per play allowed −0.02 +0.14 better by 0.16

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bengals win 11% of them, Washington 89%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Washington by 11.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bengals by 17+1.0%
Bengals by 9–162.2%
Bengals by 1–87.4%
Level after regulation1.8%
Washington by 1–817.8%
Washington by 9–1620.4%
Washington by 17+49.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.7 points to Washington: the final margin was Washington by 11, without the luck Washington by 6.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Bullock, 34 yds missed · 94% expected
  • R. Bullock, 53 yds made · 66% expected
  • R. Bullock, 58 yds missed · 61% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 32 yds made · 94% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 50 yds made · 66% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 38 yds missed · 89% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bengals 3 for 31 yards, Washington 6 for 49 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 0:02 Neutral Zone Infraction on Washington (Ryan Kerrigan), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% CIN +0.6 pts
Q2 9:30 Face Mask on Washington (Daron Payne), 15 yards, wiping out the play +5% CIN +2.0 pts
Q2 5:55 Delay of Game on Washington, 4 yards · pre-snap +5% CIN +0.6 pts
Q2 2:02 Defensive Offside on Washington (Montez Sweat), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% WAS +0.3 pts
Q2 1:57 False Start on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% WAS +0.6 pts
Q3 5:45 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bengals (LeShaun Sims), 21 yards +3% WAS +1.3 pts
Q4 11:42 Clipping on Washington, 15 yards +1% CIN +1.4 pts
Q4 3:07 Delay of Game on Washington, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CIN +0.4 pts
Q4 2:22 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Bengals (Geno Atkins), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WAS +0.5 pts

Bengals penalties, every game · Washington penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Washington’s chance of winning

As low as 30% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while Washington was ahead in it, below while the Bengals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:28 Washington was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +5% CIN WAS: Punt
2 Q1 7:43 The Bengals converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +6% CIN CIN: Missed field goal
3 Q1 5:47 R. Bullock missed a 34-yard field goalKicks · 94% expected for him +10% WAS CIN: Turnover
4 Q2 9:30 Face Mask on Washington (Daron Payne), 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 4 flags in 1291 snaps before, position avg 1 per 262 +5% CIN CIN: Touchdown
5 Q2 7:32 The Bengals missed an extra pointKicks · extra points are made about 94% of the time +6% WAS CIN: Field goal
6 Q2 1:44 R. Bullock made a 53-yard field goalKicks · 66% expected for him, 12 of 17 from 45+ before +6% CIN CIN: Missed field goal
7 Q2 0:04 R. Bullock missed a 58-yard field goalKicks · 61% expected for him, 13 of 18 from 45+ before +10% WAS CIN: Punt
8 Q3 4:00 The Bengals converted 3rd & 183rd & 4th downs · 19% expected +5% CIN CIN: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Kyle Allen (WAS QB), out (IR), replaced by a.smith · 1.4 pts
  • Landon Collins (WAS S), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Dontrelle Inman (WAS WR), out · 0.5 pts
  • Geron Christian (WAS T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • D.J. Reader (CIN DT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Darius Phillips (CIN CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Joe Mixon (CIN HB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Alex Redmond (CIN G), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bengals 17% · Washington 83%

Final margin
Washington by 11
Luck in points
4.7 for the Washington
Luck-adjusted margin
Washington by 6.3
Replay with same day's form
Bengals 11% · Washington 89% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2020 games · Bengals · Washington

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