luckadjusted

Week 11 2020 · November 23, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Rams at Buccaneers, Week 11 2020: who deserved to win?

The Rams beat the Buccaneers 27–24 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 6 of 10. The Buccaneers had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 7.6 points to the Buccaneers.

Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 8:52 left): Defensive Pass Interference on the Rams (Jordan Fuller), 25 yards, worth 13 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.

Final

Los Angeles Rams 27
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24

November 23, 2020 · Raymond James Stadium · Closing line: Buccaneers −4

Luck index +36 Rams lucky · −36 Buccaneers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Rams win 6, Buccaneers win 4.

  1. 1 LA 41 TB 16
  2. 2 LA 44 TB 27
  3. 3 LA 25 TB 13
  4. 4 LA 15 TB 7
  5. 5 LA 30 TB 25
  6. 6 LA 27 TB 25
  7. 7 LA 20 TB 22
  8. 8 LA 21 TB 27
  9. 9 LA 14 TB 27
  10. 10 LA 27 TB 48

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Rams win 64% of them, Buccaneers 36%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Rams by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Rams by 17+19.4%
Rams by 9–1618.5%
Rams by 1–825.3%
Level after regulation2.5%
Buccaneers by 1–818.4%
Buccaneers by 9–169.5%
Buccaneers by 17+6.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Rams by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Rams by 11.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Gay, 38 yds made · 89% expected
  • R. Succop, 38 yds made · 89% expected
  • M. Gay, 44 yds missed · 81% expected
  • M. Gay, 40 yds made · 87% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Buccaneers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 72%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Buccaneers were ahead in it, below while the Rams were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:01 The Rams converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +12% LA LA: Touchdown
2 Q1 3:44 Defensive Pass Interference on the Rams (Jalen Ramsey), 20 yardsJudgment calls · 5 flags in 1325 snaps before, position avg 1 per 207 +7% TB TB: Touchdown
3 Q2 8:52 Defensive Pass Interference on the Rams (Jordan Fuller), 25 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 278 snaps before, position avg 1 per 510 +13% TB TB: Touchdown
4 Q3 8:30 M. Gay missed 44-yard field goalKicks · 81% expected for him +10% TB LA: Touchdown
5 Q4 8:21 The Buccaneers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +7% LA TB: Touchdown
6 Q4 3:01 The Rams converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +12% LA LA: Field goal
7 Q4 2:40 M. Gay made 40-yard field goalKicks · 87% expected for him +11% LA LA: Punt
8 Q4 0:56 The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +6% TB LA: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Vita Vea (TB DL), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Ali Marpet (TB G), out · 0.6 pts
  • Andrew Whitworth (LA OL), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Taylor Rapp (LA S), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Kai Forbath (LA K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Rams 97% · Buccaneers 3%

Final margin
Rams by 3
Luck in points
8.6 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Rams by 11.6
Replay with same day's form
Rams 64% · Buccaneers 36% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2020 games · Rams · Buccaneers

More from Week 11 2020