luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 11 2020 · November 22, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Packers at Colts, Week 11 2020: who deserved to win?

The Colts beat the Packers 34–31, but the replays lean toward the Packers: they take 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 35 points of win probability to the Colts.

Before kickoff the Colts were 54% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (OT, 9:20 left): the Packers fumbled and the Colts recovered, worth 23 points of win probability to the Colts. The biggest single swing (Q4, 9:40 left): Offensive Holding on the Colts (Zach Pascal), 10 yards, wiping out the play.

Final (OT)

Green Bay Packers 31
Indianapolis Colts 34

November 22, 2020 · Lucas Oil Stadium · Closing line: Colts −1.5

Luck index +68 Colts very lucky · −68 Packers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Packers win 7, Colts win 3.

  1. 1 GB 48 IND 19
  2. 2 GB 44 IND 24
  3. 3 GB 42 IND 27
  4. 4 GB 34 IND 23
  5. 5 GB 38 IND 29
  6. 6 GB 29 IND 24
  7. 7 GB 22 IND 20
  8. 8 GB 35 IND 37
  9. 9 GB 20 IND 30
  10. 10 GB 16 IND 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Packers win 68% of them, Colts 32%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Colts by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Packers by 17+25.3%
Packers by 9–1618.8%
Packers by 1–823.3%
Level after regulation3.5%
Colts by 1–814.3%
Colts by 9–168.5%
Colts by 17+6.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.1 points to the Colts: the final margin was Colts by 3, without the luck Colts by 2.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Blankenship, 50 yds missed · 73% expected
  • R. Blankenship, 37 yds made · 92% expected
  • R. Blankenship, 32 yds made · 95% expected
  • R. Blankenship, 43 yds made · 86% expected
  • M. Crosby, 26 yds made · 99% expected
  • R. Blankenship, 39 yds made · 90% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Packers 7 for 45 yards, Colts 8 for 116 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:43 Offensive Holding on the Colts, 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% GB +2.1 pts
Q1 3:02 Offensive Holding on the Colts, 10 yards +3% GB +1.3 pts
Q1 0:35 Offensive Holding on the Packers, 10 yards +5% IND +1.5 pts
Q2 11:08 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Colts (Grover Stewart), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% GB +0.4 pts
Q2 0:27 Defensive Pass Interference on the Colts (Rock Ya-Sin), 51 yards +10% GB +3.8 pts
Q3 1:59 Defensive Offside on the Packers (Za'Darius Smith), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% IND +0.3 pts
Q3 0:21 False Start on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% IND +0.8 pts
Q4 9:40 Offensive Holding on the Colts (Zach Pascal), 10 yards, wiping out the play +26% GB +4.2 pts
Q4 9:34 Defensive Offside on the Packers (Preston Smith), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +1% GB 0.0 pts
Q4 5:14 Offensive Holding on the Packers (Marcedes Lewis), 10 yards, wiping out the play +21% IND +2.2 pts
Q4 2:22 Defensive Offside on the Packers (Preston Smith), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% IND +0.3 pts
Q4 2:17 Offensive Holding on the Colts (Michael Pittman Jr.), 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% GB +1.0 pts
Q4 2:17 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% IND +0.1 pts
Q4 1:55 Offensive Holding on the Colts, 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% GB +1.6 pts
Q4 1:47 Offensive Holding on the Colts, 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% GB +1.7 pts

Packers penalties, every game · Colts penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Colts’ chance of winning

As low as 13% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Colts were ahead in it, below while the Packers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:48 The Packers fumbled and the Colts recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% IND GB: Touchdown
2 Q2 0:27 Defensive Pass Interference on the Colts (Rock Ya-Sin), 51 yardsJudgment calls · 11 flags in 1379 snaps before, position avg 1 per 207 +10% GB GB: Touchdown
3 Q4 9:40 Offensive Holding on the Colts (Zach Pascal), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 4 flags in 1388 snaps before, position avg 1 per 385 +26% GB GB: Turnover on downs
4 Q4 5:14 Offensive Holding on the Packers (Marcedes Lewis), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 3 flags in 822 snaps before, position avg 1 per 276 +21% IND IND: Punt
5 Q4 3:11 The Packers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected +16% IND GB: Field goal
6 Q4 1:17 The Packers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +22% GB GB: Field goal
7 Q4 0:12 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +11% IND GB: Field goal
8 OT 9:20 The game turned hereThe Packers fumbled and the Colts recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +23% IND –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Braden Smith (IND T/G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Denico Autry (IND DT/D), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Packers 33% · Colts 67%

Final margin
Colts by 3
Luck in points
0.1 for the Colts
Luck-adjusted margin
Colts by 2.9
Replay with same day's form
Packers 68% · Colts 32% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2020 games · Packers · Colts

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