luckadjusted

Week 11 2020 · November 22, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Packers at Colts, Week 11 2020: who deserved to win?

The Colts beat the Packers 34–31, but the Packers played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 3.4 points to the Colts.

Before kickoff the Colts were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 9:40 left): Offensive Holding on the Colts (Zach Pascal), 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 26 points of win probability to the Packers.

Final (OT)

Green Bay Packers 31
Indianapolis Colts 34

November 22, 2020 · Lucas Oil Stadium · Closing line: Colts −1.5

Luck index +70 Colts very lucky · −70 Packers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Packers win 7, Colts win 3.

  1. 1 GB 61 IND 31
  2. 2 GB 48 IND 27
  3. 3 GB 40 IND 24
  4. 4 GB 37 IND 26
  5. 5 GB 43 IND 34
  6. 6 GB 55 IND 49
  7. 7 GB 26 IND 23
  8. 8 GB 29 IND 32
  9. 9 GB 27 IND 36
  10. 10 GB 10 IND 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Packers win 70% of them, Colts 30%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Colts by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Packers by 17+25.9%
Packers by 9–1619.4%
Packers by 1–823.5%
Level after regulation2.9%
Colts by 1–814.4%
Colts by 9–168.1%
Colts by 17+5.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Colts by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Colts by 10.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Blankenship, 50 yds missed · 74% expected
  • R. Blankenship, 37 yds made · 92% expected
  • R. Blankenship, 32 yds made · 95% expected
  • R. Blankenship, 43 yds made · 85% expected
  • M. Crosby, 26 yds made · 99% expected
  • R. Blankenship, 39 yds made · 90% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Colts’ chance of winning

As low as 13% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Colts were ahead in it, below while the Packers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:33 The Colts were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expectedThe Colts fumbled and the Packers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +14% GB IND: Touchdown
2 Q4 12:02 The Colts were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected +10% GB IND: Field goal
3 Q4 9:40 Offensive Holding on the Colts (Zach Pascal), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 4 flags in 1388 snaps before, position avg 1 per 385 +26% GB GB: Turnover on downs
4 Q4 5:14 Offensive Holding on the Packers (Marcedes Lewis), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 3 flags in 822 snaps before, position avg 1 per 276 +21% IND IND: Punt
5 Q4 3:11 The Packers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +16% IND GB: Field goal
6 Q4 1:17 The Packers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +26% GB GB: Field goal
7 Q4 0:12 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +11% IND GB: Field goal
8 QOT 9:20 The Packers fumbled and the Colts recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +22% IND –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Braden Smith (IND T/G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Denico Autry (IND DT/D), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Packers 13% · Colts 87%

Final margin
Colts by 3
Luck in points
7.4 for the Packers
Luck-adjusted margin
Colts by 10.4
Replay with same day's form
Packers 70% · Colts 30% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2020 games · Packers · Colts

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