luckadjusted

Week 11 2020 · November 22, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Dolphins at Broncos, Week 11 2020: who deserved to win?

The Broncos beat the Dolphins 20–13, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Broncos win 9 of 10. The Dolphins had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 2.5 points to the Dolphins.

An off day for the Dolphins: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Broncos they would win 55% of the time; with this day’s form, 13%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Dolphins were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:10 left): the Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 8, worth 16 points of win probability to the Broncos.

Final

Miami Dolphins 13
Denver Broncos 20

November 22, 2020 · Empower Field at Mile High · Closing line: Dolphins −4

Luck index +13 Broncos about even · −13 Dolphins

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Dolphins win 1, Broncos win 9.

  1. 1 MIA 23 DEN 17
  2. 2 MIA 18 DEN 20
  3. 3 MIA 19 DEN 24
  4. 4 MIA 10 DEN 17
  5. 5 MIA 20 DEN 31
  6. 6 MIA 17 DEN 30
  7. 7 MIA 21 DEN 37
  8. 8 MIA 20 DEN 38
  9. 9 MIA 13 DEN 35
  10. 10 MIA 6 DEN 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Dolphins

Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Broncos they would win 55% of the time; with this day’s form, 13%.

42 points apart for the Dolphins: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Dolphins offenseEPA per play gained −0.10 +0.10 worse by 0.20
Dolphins defenseEPA per play allowed +0.11 +0.14 better by 0.03
Broncos offenseEPA per play gained +0.11 +0.04 better by 0.07
Broncos defenseEPA per play allowed −0.10 +0.08 better by 0.18

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Dolphins win 13% of them, Broncos 87%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Broncos by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Dolphins by 17+1.0%
Dolphins by 9–162.5%
Dolphins by 1–88.1%
Level after regulation1.8%
Broncos by 1–820.6%
Broncos by 9–1624.3%
Broncos by 17+41.6%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Broncos by 7. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Broncos by 13.6.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. McManus, 29 yds made · 98% expected
  • J. Sanders, 41 yds made · 86% expected
  • B. McManus, 47 yds made · 79% expected
  • J. Sanders, 53 yds made · 66% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Broncos’ chance of winning

As low as 33% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Broncos were ahead in it, below while the Dolphins were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:15 The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +12% MIA DEN: Punt
2 Q1 12:25 Defensive Holding on the Broncos, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +13% MIA MIA: Touchdown
3 Q1 3:43 The Broncos converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +9% DEN DEN: Touchdown
4 Q2 3:23 The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +8% DEN MIA: Field goal
5 Q2 1:43 The Broncos converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +11% DEN DEN: Field goal
6 Q3 9:30 The Broncos were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +9% MIA DEN: Touchdown
7 Q4 2:50 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +12% MIA MIA: Turnover
8 Q4 1:10 The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +16% DEN –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Elijah Wilkinson (DEN T), out · 0.6 pts
  • Shelby Harris (DEN DE), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Mike Purcell (DEN DL), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Christian Wilkins (MIA DT), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Preston Williams (MIA WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Myles Gaskin (MIA RB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Dolphins 4% · Broncos 96%

Final margin
Broncos by 7
Luck in points
6.6 for the Dolphins
Luck-adjusted margin
Broncos by 13.6
Replay with same day's form
Dolphins 13% · Broncos 87% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2020 games · Dolphins · Broncos

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