luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 11 2020 · November 22, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Cowboys at Vikings, Week 11 2020: who deserved to win?

The Cowboys beat the Vikings 31–28, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Cowboys win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 13 points of win probability to the Cowboys.

Before kickoff the Vikings were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:05 left): the Cowboys converted 4th & 6, worth 24 points of win probability to the Cowboys.

Final

Dallas Cowboys 31
Minnesota Vikings 28

November 22, 2020 · U.S. Bank Stadium · Closing line: Vikings −7

Luck index +45 Cowboys lucky · −45 Vikings

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cowboys win 5, Vikings win 5.

  1. 1 DAL 36 MIN 13
  2. 2 DAL 36 MIN 23
  3. 3 DAL 33 MIN 24
  4. 4 DAL 28 MIN 23
  5. 5 DAL 38 MIN 36
  6. 6 DAL 27 MIN 29
  7. 7 DAL 26 MIN 31
  8. 8 DAL 21 MIN 31
  9. 9 DAL 30 MIN 45
  10. 10 DAL 16 MIN 39

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cowboys win 55% of them, Vikings 45%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cowboys by 17+12.9%
Cowboys by 9–1615.8%
Cowboys by 1–821.3%
Level after regulation4.8%
Vikings by 1–820.3%
Vikings by 9–1613.3%
Vikings by 17+11.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.6 points to the Vikings: the final margin was Cowboys by 3, without the luck Cowboys by 3.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Zuerlein, 19 yds made · 98% expected
  • Extra point missed · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Cowboys 4 for 30 yards, Vikings 8 for 80 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 7:34 Defensive Holding on the Cowboys (Chidobe Awuzie), 5 yards +2% MIN +0.4 pts
Q1 6:32 Chop Block on the Vikings, 15 yards +7% DAL +2.1 pts
Q2 11:25 False Start on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DAL +0.6 pts
Q2 10:27 Illegal Shift on the Vikings (Kris Boyd), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +7% DAL +2.2 pts
Q2 10:06 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Vikings (Kris Boyd), 10 yards +3% DAL +0.8 pts
Q2 4:51 Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% DAL +1.6 pts
Q2 3:42 Unnecessary Roughness on the Vikings (Harrison Smith), 15 yards +4% DAL +0.7 pts
Q3 8:27 Defensive Holding on the Vikings (Jaleel Johnson), 5 yards +4% DAL +0.9 pts
Q3 5:06 Face Mask on the Vikings (Olabisi Johnson), 15 yards +4% DAL +1.4 pts
Q4 14:57 Roughing the Kicker on the Cowboys (Rashard Robinson), 15 yards +7% MIN +1.4 pts
Q4 9:37 Defensive Offside on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MIN 0.0 pts
Q4 2:33 False Start on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% MIN +0.7 pts

Cowboys penalties, every game · Vikings penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Vikings’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 81%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Vikings were ahead in it, below while the Cowboys were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:01 The Vikings fumbled and the Cowboys recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% DAL MIN: Touchdown
2 Q2 10:27 Illegal Shift on the Vikings (Kris Boyd), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 5 flags in 743 snaps before, position avg 1 per 207 +7% DAL DAL: Touchdown
3 Q2 1:55 The Cowboys were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +13% MIN DAL: Field goal
4 Q2 1:03 The Vikings fumbled and the Cowboys recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% DAL MIN: End of half
5 Q4 12:02 The Cowboys’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +7% DAL DAL: Punt
6 Q4 2:05 The Cowboys converted 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +24% DAL DAL: Touchdown
7 Q4 1:43 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +9% DAL DAL: Touchdown
8 Q4 1:24 The Vikings were stopped on 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +12% DAL –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Holton Hill (MIN CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Mike Hughes (MIN CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Dru Samia (MIN G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Dak Prescott (DAL QB), out (IR), replaced by a.dalton · 6.3 pts
  • Trevon Diggs (DAL CB), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Tyler Biadasz (DAL C), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Chris Jones (DAL P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Trysten Hill (DAL DT), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cowboys 47% · Vikings 53%

Final margin
Cowboys by 3
Luck in points
0.6 for the Vikings
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 3.6
Replay with same day's form
Cowboys 55% · Vikings 45% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2020 games · Cowboys · Vikings

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