luckadjusted

Week 11 2020 · November 22, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Cowboys at Vikings, Week 11 2020: who deserved to win?

The Cowboys beat the Vikings 31–28, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Cowboys win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 6.1 points to the Cowboys.

Before kickoff the Vikings were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 0:05 left): G. Zuerlein made 19-yard field goal, worth 29 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Final

Dallas Cowboys 31
Minnesota Vikings 28

November 22, 2020 · U.S. Bank Stadium · Closing line: Vikings −7

Luck index +44 Cowboys lucky · −44 Vikings

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cowboys win 6, Vikings win 4.

  1. 1 DAL 34 MIN 7
  2. 2 DAL 38 MIN 20
  3. 3 DAL 26 MIN 13
  4. 4 DAL 32 MIN 22
  5. 5 DAL 31 MIN 26
  6. 6 DAL 30 MIN 28
  7. 7 DAL 23 MIN 26
  8. 8 DAL 23 MIN 30
  9. 9 DAL 38 MIN 51
  10. 10 DAL 20 MIN 43

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cowboys win 56% of them, Vikings 44%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cowboys by 17+14.5%
Cowboys by 9–1616.6%
Cowboys by 1–824.3%
Level after regulation2.4%
Vikings by 1–819.7%
Vikings by 9–1612.0%
Vikings by 17+10.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Cowboys by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Cowboys by 3.0.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Zuerlein, 19 yds made · 99% expected
  • Extra point missed · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Vikings’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 81%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Vikings were ahead in it, below while the Cowboys were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 13:48 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +8% DAL DAL: Turnover
2 Q2 6:44 The Cowboys converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +9% DAL DAL: Touchdown
3 Q2 1:55 The Cowboys were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +13% MIN DAL: Field goal
4 Q2 1:03 The Vikings fumbled and the Cowboys recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% DAL MIN: End of half
5 Q2 0:05 G. Zuerlein made 19-yard field goalKicks · 99% expected for him +29% MIN DAL: Punt
6 Q4 2:05 The Cowboys converted 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +24% DAL DAL: Touchdown
7 Q4 1:43 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +14% DAL DAL: Touchdown
8 Q4 1:24 The Vikings were stopped on 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +18% DAL –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Holton Hill (MIN CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Mike Hughes (MIN CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Dru Samia (MIN G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Dak Prescott (DAL QB), out (IR), replaced by a.dalton · 6.3 pts
  • Trevon Diggs (DAL CB), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Tyler Biadasz (DAL C), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Chris Jones (DAL P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Trysten Hill (DAL DT), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cowboys 29% · Vikings 71%

Final margin
Cowboys by 3
Luck in points
none
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 3.0
Replay with same day's form
Cowboys 56% · Vikings 44% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2020 games · Cowboys · Vikings

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