Week 11 2020 · November 22, 2020
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Titans at Ravens, Week 11 2020: who deserved to win?
The Titans beat the Ravens 30–24 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10. The Ravens had the bounces: injuries alone were worth 3.1 points to the Ravens.
An off day for the Ravens: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Titans they would win 65% of the time; with this day’s form, 25%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Ravens were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 14:18 left): the Titans were stopped on 3rd & 4, worth 17 points of win probability to the Ravens.
Final (OT)
 Tennessee Titans | 30 |
|---|---|
 Baltimore Ravens | 24 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +25 Titans about even · −25 Ravens
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Titans win 8, Ravens win 2.
- 1 TEN 31 BAL 3
- 2 TEN 44 BAL 23
- 3 TEN 31 BAL 16
- 4 TEN 31 BAL 19
- 5 TEN 37 BAL 27
- 6 TEN 20 BAL 13
- 7 TEN 24 BAL 20
- 8 TEN 19 BAL 17
- 9 TEN 26 BAL 30
- 10 TEN 22 BAL 36
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Ravens
Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Titans they would win 65% of the time; with this day’s form, 25%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
41 points apart for the Ravens: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Titans offenseEPA per play gained | +0.26 | +0.14 | better by 0.12 |
| Titans defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.16 | +0.15 | worse by 0.01 |
| Ravens offenseEPA per play gained | +0.16 | +0.18 | worse by 0.02 |
| Ravens defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.26 | +0.07 | worse by 0.20 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Titans win 75% of them, Ravens 25%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Titans by 6.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Titans by 17+ | 25.6% |
| Titans by 9–16 | 21.8% |
| Titans by 1–8 | 24.4% |
| Level after regulation | 4.2% |
| Ravens by 1–8 | 13.2% |
| Ravens by 9–16 | 7.3% |
| Ravens by 17+ | 3.6% |
Where the luck was
Take the luck out
The final margin was Titans by 6. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Titans by 5.0.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- J. Tucker, 30 yds made · 98% expected
- J. Tucker, 27 yds made · 99% expected
- S. Gostkowski, 40 yds made · 86% expected
- S. Gostkowski, 40 yds made · 86% expected
- S. Gostkowski, 22 yds made · 98% expected
- J. Tucker, 29 yds made · 98% expected
When it happened
Ravens’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 89%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:53 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Marlon Humphrey), 39 yardsJudgment calls · 12 flags in 1610 snaps before, position avg 1 per 237 | +9% TEN | TEN: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 12:28 | The Titans converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +10% TEN | TEN: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 14:18 | The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +17% BAL | TEN: Punt |
| 4 | Q4 11:19 | The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 53% expected | +9% BAL | TEN: Field goal |
| 5 | Q4 3:12 | The Titans fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +11% TEN | TEN: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 2:26 | The Titans converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +17% TEN | TEN: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 2:18 | The Titans’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +9% TEN | TEN: End of game |
| 8 | Q4 0:28 | The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +16% TEN | BAL: Field goal |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Ronnie Stanley (BAL T), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
- Calais Campbell (BAL DE), out · 0.7 pts
- Nick Boyle (BAL TE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Tyre Phillips (BAL G/T), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
- Rodger Saffold (TEN T), out · 1.0 pts
- Jadeveon Clowney (TEN DE), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
- Kenny Vaccaro (TEN DB), out · 0.7 pts
- Taylor Lewan (TEN T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Jadeveon Clowney (TEN OLB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Kenny Vaccaro (TEN S), out · 0.5 pts
- Adam Humphries (TEN WR), out · 0.4 pts
- Kristian Fulton (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Rodger Saffold (TEN G), out · 0.3 pts
- Brett Kern (TEN P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Titans 68% · Ravens 32%
- Final margin
- Titans by 6
- Luck in points
- 1.0 for the Titans
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Titans by 5.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Titans 75% · Ravens 25% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2020 games · 
Titans · 
Ravens
More from Week 11 2020
- Cardinals at Seahawks SEA 28–21 · replay 43% for the winner
- Falcons at Saints NO 24–9 · replay 92% for the winner
- Bengals at Washington WAS 20–9 · replay 88% for the winner
- Lions at Panthers CAR 20–0 · replay 87% for the winner
- Patriots at Texans HOU 27–20 · replay 56% for the winner
- Eagles at Browns CLE 22–17 · replay 71% for the winner
- Steelers at Jaguars PIT 27–3 · replay 95% for the winner
- Dolphins at Broncos DEN 20–13 · replay 87% for the winner
- Jets at Chargers LAC 34–28 · replay 75% for the winner
- Cowboys at Vikings DAL 31–28 · replay 56% for the winner
- Packers at Colts IND 34–31 · replay 30% for the winner
- Chiefs at Raiders KC 35–31 · replay 43% for the winner
- Rams at Buccaneers LA 27–24 · replay 64% for the winner