2020 season · final
Los Angeles Rams, 2020: game by game
The Rams went 10–6 in 2020; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 11.2 wins. Luck cost them 1.2: the 11th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 4–4.
Playoffs: 1–1, replay wins 0.7.
Every game
How often the Rams win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Cowboys | W 20–17 | 54% | +46 |
| Week 2 | @ Eagles | W 37–19 | 92% | +8 |
| Week 3 | @ Bills | L 32–35 | 78% | −78 |
| Week 4 | vs Giants | W 17–9 | 66% | +34 |
| Week 5 | @ Washington | W 30–10 | 99% | +1 |
| Week 6 | @ 49ers | L 16–24 | 45% | −45 |
| Week 7 | vs Bears | W 24–10 | 79% | +21 |
| Week 8 | @ Dolphins | L 17–28 | 95% | −95 |
| Week 10 | vs Seahawks | W 23–16 | 58% | +42 |
| Week 11 | @ Buccaneers | W 27–24 | 64% | +36 |
| Week 12 | vs 49ers | L 20–23 | 58% | −58 |
| Week 13 | @ Cardinals | W 38–28 | 91% | +9 |
| Week 14 | vs Patriots | W 24–3 | 78% | +22 |
| Week 15 | vs Jets | L 20–23 | 81% | −81 |
| Week 16 | @ Seahawks | L 9–20 | 35% | −35 |
| Week 17 | vs Cardinals | W 18–7 | 47% | +53 |
| Wild Card | @ Seahawks | W 30–20 | 61% | +39 |
| Divisional round | @ Packers | L 18–32 | 12% | −12 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Rams’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Judgment calls | +0.48 | −0.9 |
| Injuries | +0.22 | +9.0 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.17 | +10.4 |
| Rest | −0.04 | −1.0 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.07 | −4.3 |
| Kicks | −0.29 | −14.3 |