luckadjusted

2020 season · final

Los Angeles Rams, 2020: game by game

The Rams went 10–6 in 2020; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 11.2 wins. Luck cost them 1.2: the 11th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 4–4.

Playoffs: 1–1, replay wins 0.8.

Every game

How often the Rams win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 vs Cowboys W 20–17 55% +45
Week 2 @ Eagles W 37–19 90% +10
Week 3 @ Bills L 32–35 75% −75
Week 4 vs Giants W 17–9 68% +32
Week 5 @ Washington W 30–10 99% +1
Week 6 @ 49ers L 16–24 45% −45
Week 7 vs Bears W 24–10 78% +22
Week 8 @ Dolphins L 17–28 95% −95
Week 10 vs Seahawks W 23–16 60% +40
Week 11 @ Buccaneers W 27–24 64% +36
Week 12 vs 49ers L 20–23 57% −57
Week 13 @ Cardinals W 38–28 91% +9
Week 14 vs Patriots W 24–3 81% +19
Week 15 vs Jets L 20–23 79% −79
Week 16 @ Seahawks L 9–20 39% −39
Week 17 vs Cardinals W 18–7 46% +54
Wild Card @ Seahawks W 30–20 63% +37
Divisional round @ Packers L 18–32 14% −14

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Rams’ favor.

KindPointsPer game
Injuries+12.1+0.76
3rd & 4th downs+9.5+0.59
Rest−1.0−0.06
Judgment calls−1.9−0.12
Fumble bounces−3.1−0.20
Kicks−14.0−0.88