luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 7 2020 · October 26, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Bears at Rams, Week 7 2020: who deserved to win?

The Rams beat the Bears 24–10, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Rams were 68% favorites.

Final

Chicago Bears 10
Los Angeles Rams 24

October 26, 2020 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Rams −6.5

Luck index +21 Rams about even · −21 Bears

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bears win 2, Rams win 8.

  1. 1 CHI 30 LA 17
  2. 2 CHI 33 LA 30
  3. 3 CHI 22 LA 24
  4. 4 CHI 15 LA 20
  5. 5 CHI 3 LA 10
  6. 6 CHI 13 LA 24
  7. 7 CHI 24 LA 38
  8. 8 CHI 20 LA 38
  9. 9 CHI 14 LA 37
  10. 10 CHI 17 LA 47

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bears win 21% of them, Rams 79%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Rams by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bears by 17+2.9%
Bears by 9–166.4%
Bears by 1–811.1%
Level after regulation1.9%
Rams by 1–824.1%
Rams by 9–1619.4%
Rams by 17+34.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.0 points to the Bears: the final margin was Rams by 14, without the luck Rams by 16. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Santos, 42 yds made · 86% expected
  • S. Sloman, 22 yds made · 98% expected
  • S. Sloman, 48 yds blocked · 76% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bears 6 for 46 yards, Rams 4 for 46 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:37 Offensive Holding on the Bears, 10 yards +6% LA +1.8 pts
Q1 9:23 Defensive Holding on the Bears, 5 yards +2% LA +0.8 pts
Q2 14:05 Intentional Grounding on the Rams (Jared Goff), 10 yards +1% CHI +0.8 pts
Q2 8:26 False Start on the Bears, 4 yards · pre-snap +2% LA +0.7 pts
Q3 14:16 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bears (Jaylon Johnson), 22 yards +4% LA +1.9 pts
Q3 13:16 Offensive Offside on the Rams, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% CHI +1.2 pts
Q3 12:54 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Bears (Akiem Hicks), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% LA +0.6 pts
Q3 8:39 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Bears (Akiem Hicks), 0 yards +1% LA +0.3 pts
Q3 6:04 Defensive Pass Interference on the Rams, 26 yards +4% CHI +1.8 pts
Q3 0:07 Offensive Offside on the Rams (Gerald Everett), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CHI +1.1 pts

Bears penalties, every game · Rams penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Rams’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Rams were ahead in it, below while the Bears were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:28 The Bears converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +4% CHI CHI: Punt
2 Q1 12:37 Offensive Holding on the Bears, 10 yardsJudgment calls +6% LA LA: Punt
3 Q1 8:36 The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +4% CHI LA: Punt
4 Q2 15:00 The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +4% LA CHI: Field goal
5 Q2 13:20 The Rams converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +6% LA LA: Punt
6 Q3 14:16 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bears (Jaylon Johnson), 22 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 428 snaps before, position avg 1 per 237 +4% LA LA: Punt
7 Q3 10:45 The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +5% LA CHI: Punt
8 Q3 6:04 Defensive Pass Interference on the Rams, 26 yardsJudgment calls +4% CHI CHI: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tyler Higbee (LA TE), out · 0.8 pts
  • Jordan Fuller (LA S), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • James Daniels (CHI OL), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • James Daniels (CHI C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bears 0% · Rams 100%

Final margin
Rams by 14
Luck in points
2.0 for the Bears
Luck-adjusted margin
Rams by 16.0
Replay with same day's form
Bears 21% · Rams 79% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2020 games · Bears · Rams

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