luckadjusted

Week 7 2020 · October 25, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

49ers at Patriots, Week 7 2020: who deserved to win?

The 49ers beat the Patriots 33–6, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the 49ers win 8 of 10. The Patriots had the bounces: injuries alone were worth 5.9 points to the Patriots.

Before kickoff the Patriots were 59% favorites.

Final

San Francisco 49ers 33
New England Patriots 6

October 25, 2020 · Gillette Stadium · Closing line: Patriots −3

Luck index +17 49ers about even · −17 Patriots

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. 49ers win 8, Patriots win 2.

  1. 1 SF 44 NE 16
  2. 2 SF 29 NE 10
  3. 3 SF 39 NE 24
  4. 4 SF 24 NE 12
  5. 5 SF 30 NE 20
  6. 6 SF 16 NE 9
  7. 7 SF 16 NE 12
  8. 8 SF 33 NE 31
  9. 9 SF 17 NE 20
  10. 10 SF 20 NE 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

49ers win 83% of them, Patriots 17%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: 49ers by 27.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
49ers by 17+31.8%
49ers by 9–1621.9%
49ers by 1–827.4%
Level after regulation2.5%
Patriots by 1–811.0%
Patriots by 9–164.0%
Patriots by 17+1.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was 49ers by 27. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes 49ers by 39.1.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • N. Folk, 40 yds made · 87% expected
  • R. Gould, 41 yds made · 85% expected
  • N. Folk, 41 yds made · 85% expected
  • R. Gould, 32 yds made · 94% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Patriots’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 58%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Patriots were ahead in it, below while the 49ers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:45 The 49ers converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +4% SF SF: Touchdown
2 Q1 5:58 The 49ers converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +6% SF SF: Turnover
3 Q1 2:41 Offensive Holding on the 49ers (George Kittle), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 3 flags in 1252 snaps before, position avg 1 per 276 +5% NE NE: Field goal
4 Q1 0:06 The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +4% SF NE: Field goal
5 Q2 10:18 Offensive Holding on the 49ers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +5% NE NE: Turnover
6 Q2 9:09 The 49ers were stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +5% NE SF: Field goal
7 Q2 5:39 The Patriots fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% NE NE: Punt
8 Q2 0:54 Offensive Holding on the Patriots, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +4% SF SF: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jermaine Eluemunor (NE OL), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Richard Sherman (SF CB), out (IR) · 1.6 pts
  • Nick Bosa (SF DE), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Jimmie Ward (SF DB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Jaquiski Tartt (SF SS), out · 0.4 pts
  • K'Waun Williams (SF CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Ben Garland (SF C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Ben Garland (SF OL), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Kwon Alexander (SF LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Jimmie Ward (SF FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Jaquiski Tartt (SF S), out · 0.4 pts
  • Raheem Mostert (SF RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Dee Ford (SF LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

49ers 100% · Patriots 0%

Final margin
49ers by 27
Luck in points
12.1 for the Patriots
Luck-adjusted margin
49ers by 39.1
Replay with same day's form
49ers 83% · Patriots 17% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2020 games · 49ers · Patriots

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