luckadjusted

Week 7 2020 · October 25, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Packers at Texans, Week 7 2020: who deserved to win?

The Packers beat the Texans 35–20, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Packers win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Packers were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 4:27 left): Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 8 points of win probability to the Packers.

Final

Green Bay Packers 35
Houston Texans 20

October 25, 2020 · NRG Stadium · Closing line: Packers −2.5

Luck index +13 Packers about even · −13 Texans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Packers win 9, Texans win 1.

  1. 1 GB 45 HOU 10
  2. 2 GB 48 HOU 20
  3. 3 GB 29 HOU 7
  4. 4 GB 37 HOU 20
  5. 5 GB 42 HOU 27
  6. 6 GB 36 HOU 24
  7. 7 GB 40 HOU 30
  8. 8 GB 20 HOU 13
  9. 9 GB 41 HOU 38
  10. 10 GB 30 HOU 35

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Packers win 87% of them, Texans 13%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 15.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Packers by 17+44.6%
Packers by 9–1622.8%
Packers by 1–819.0%
Level after regulation1.2%
Texans by 1–88.1%
Texans by 9–162.9%
Texans by 17+1.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Packers by 15. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Packers by 1.2.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • K. Fairbairn, 41 yds missed · 87% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 38 yds made · 90% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 29 yds made · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Texans’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 58%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Texans were ahead in it, below while the Packers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:39 Illegal Use of Hands on the Texans (Eric Murray), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 4 flags in 861 snaps before, position avg 1 per 510 +5% GB GB: Touchdown
2 Q1 12:34 Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact on the Texans (Justin Reid), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 1563 snaps before, position avg 1 per 510 +5% GB GB: Touchdown
3 Q1 11:31 The Packers converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected +4% GB GB: Touchdown
4 Q1 9:26 The Packers converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +4% GB GB: Touchdown
5 Q1 8:10 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +4% GB HOU: Punt
6 Q1 0:50 The Packers converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +7% GB GB: Touchdown
7 Q2 4:27 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +8% GB GB: Touchdown
8 Q2 2:41 K. Fairbairn missed 41-yard field goalKicks · 87% expected for him +7% GB HOU: End of half

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Gareon Conley (HOU CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Jordan Akins (HOU TE), out · 0.6 pts
  • Benardrick McKinney (HOU LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Benardrick McKinney (HOU ILB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • David Bakhtiari (GB T), out · 1.4 pts
  • Allen Lazard (GB WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Kevin King (GB CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Christian Kirksey (GB LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Aaron Jones (GB RB), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Packers 52% · Texans 48%

Final margin
Packers by 15
Luck in points
13.8 for the Packers
Luck-adjusted margin
Packers by 1.2
Replay with same day's form
Packers 87% · Texans 13% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2020 games · Packers · Texans

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