Week 16 2020 · December 27, 2020
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Rams at Seahawks, Week 16 2020: who deserved to win?
The Seahawks beat the Rams 20–9 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 6 of 10. The Rams had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 1.6 points to the Rams.
Before kickoff the Seahawks were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 13:35 left): the Seahawks converted 3rd & 8, worth 16 points of win probability to the Seahawks.
Final
 Los Angeles Rams | 9 |
|---|---|
 Seattle Seahawks | 20 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +39 Seahawks lucky · −39 Rams
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Rams win 4, Seahawks win 6.
- 1 LA 19 SEA 0
- 2 LA 33 SEA 20
- 3 LA 31 SEA 25
- 4 LA 26 SEA 24
- 5 LA 17 SEA 19
- 6 LA 23 SEA 28
- 7 LA 24 SEA 33
- 8 LA 12 SEA 24
- 9 LA 13 SEA 29
- 10 LA 10 SEA 34
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Rams win 39% of them, Seahawks 61%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 11.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Rams by 17+ | 5.8% |
| Rams by 9–16 | 12.0% |
| Rams by 1–8 | 20.2% |
| Level after regulation | 2.9% |
| Seahawks by 1–8 | 28.8% |
| Seahawks by 9–16 | 16.4% |
| Seahawks by 17+ | 13.9% |
Where the luck was
Take the luck out
The final margin was Seahawks by 11. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Seahawks by 11.7.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- M. Gay, 44 yds made · 82% expected
- J. Myers, 45 yds made · 81% expected
- M. Gay, 51 yds made · 72% expected
- J. Myers, 49 yds made · 75% expected
- M. Gay, 33 yds made · 94% expected
When it happened
Seahawks’ chance of winning
As low as 37% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 6:41 | Roughing the Kicker on the Seahawks, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +9% LA | LA: Turnover |
| 2 | Q2 1:16 | The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +9% LA | SEA: Field goal |
| 3 | Q3 13:35 | The Seahawks converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +16% SEA | SEA: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q3 11:27 | The Seahawks converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +8% SEA | SEA: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q3 3:58 | The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 66% expected | +8% SEA | LA: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | Q3 2:16 | The Rams fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +10% LA | LA: Field goal |
| 7 | Q4 11:52 | The Seahawks converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +7% SEA | SEA: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 2:56 | The Seahawks converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +8% SEA | SEA: Touchdown |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Brandon Shell (SEA T), out · 0.8 pts
- Quinton Dunbar (SEA CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Tre Flowers (SEA CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Mike Iupati (SEA G), out · 0.4 pts
- Andrew Whitworth (LA OL), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
- Taylor Rapp (LA S), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Kai Forbath (LA K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Micah Kiser (LA ILB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Rams 3% · Seahawks 97%
- Final margin
- Seahawks by 11
- Luck in points
- 0.7 for the Rams
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Seahawks by 11.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Rams 39% · Seahawks 61% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2020 games · 
Rams · 
Seahawks
More from Week 16 2020
- Vikings at Saints NO 52–33 · replay 96% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Lions TB 47–7 · replay 99% for the winner
- 49ers at Cardinals SF 20–12 · replay 95% for the winner
- Dolphins at Raiders MIA 26–25 · replay 9% for the winner
- Falcons at Chiefs KC 17–14 · replay 87% for the winner
- Bears at Jaguars CHI 41–17 · replay 88% for the winner
- Bengals at Texans CIN 37–31 · replay 37% for the winner
- Browns at Jets NYJ 23–16 · replay 61% for the winner
- Colts at Steelers PIT 28–24 · replay 53% for the winner
- Giants at Ravens BAL 27–13 · replay 92% for the winner
- Panthers at Washington CAR 20–13 · replay 54% for the winner
- Broncos at Chargers LAC 19–16 · replay 27% for the winner
- Eagles at Cowboys DAL 37–17 · replay 86% for the winner
- Titans at Packers GB 40–14 · replay 95% for the winner
- Bills at Patriots BUF 38–9 · replay 93% for the winner