luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 16 2020 · December 27, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Panthers at Washington, Week 16 2020: who deserved to win?

The Panthers beat Washington 20–13, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Panthers win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 21 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q1, 1:53 left): Return touchdown by the Panthers, worth 34 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Final

Carolina Panthers 20
Washington Football Team 13

December 27, 2020 · FedExField · Closing line: Panthers −1

Luck index +44 Panthers lucky · −44 Washington

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Panthers win 6, Washington wins 4.

  1. 1 CAR 31 WAS 7
  2. 2 CAR 23 WAS 9
  3. 3 CAR 24 WAS 13
  4. 4 CAR 27 WAS 19
  5. 5 CAR 19 WAS 14
  6. 6 CAR 22 WAS 20
  7. 7 CAR 24 WAS 27
  8. 8 CAR 16 WAS 23
  9. 9 CAR 5 WAS 16
  10. 10 CAR 6 WAS 24

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Panthers win 56% of them, Washington 44%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Panthers by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Panthers by 17+14.6%
Panthers by 9–1615.9%
Panthers by 1–825.1%
Level after regulation2.6%
Washington by 1–820.7%
Washington by 9–1613.5%
Washington by 17+7.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.0 points to the Panthers: the final margin was Panthers by 7, without the luck Panthers by 2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Hopkins, 48 yds made · 73% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 26 yds made · 97% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Panthers 3 for 35 yards, Washington 5 for 26 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:55 Neutral Zone Infraction on Washington (Montez Sweat), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CAR +0.4 pts
Q2 12:13 Illegal Use of Hands on Washington (Daron Payne), 5 yards +1% CAR +0.9 pts
Q2 9:27 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on Washington, 1 yard · pre-snap +1% CAR +0.7 pts
Q2 3:06 Defensive Offside on Washington (Jimmy Moreland), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CAR +0.4 pts
Q4 12:19 Defensive Holding on the Panthers (Jeremy Chinn), 5 yards +2% WAS +1.1 pts
Q4 8:40 Unnecessary Roughness on the Panthers (Brian Burns), 15 yards +1% WAS +1.6 pts
Q4 3:50 Offensive Holding on Washington, 10 yards, wiping out the play +10% CAR +4.6 pts
Q4 2:00 Roughing the Passer on the Panthers (Yetur Gross-Matos), 15 yards 0% WAS +1.3 pts

Panthers penalties, every game · Washington penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Washington’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 63%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while Washington was ahead in it, below while the Panthers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:21 The Panthers were stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +7% WAS CAR: Punt
2 Q1 8:03 Washington fumbled and the Panthers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% CAR WAS: Punt
3 Q1 1:53 Washington fumbled and the Panthers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the PanthersSpecial teams +34% CAR WAS: Punt
4 Q1 0:32 Washington was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +4% CAR WAS: Punt
5 Q2 13:33 The Panthers converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +4% CAR CAR: Touchdown
6 Q2 7:20 Washington converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +5% WAS WAS: Turnover
7 Q3 13:43 The Panthers converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expectedThe Panthers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% CAR CAR: Turnover
8 Q4 3:50 Offensive Holding on Washington, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +10% CAR CAR: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Terry McLaurin (WAS WR), out · 1.2 pts
  • Deshazor Everett (WAS S), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Alex Smith (WAS QB), out, replaced by d.haskins · 0.2 pts
  • Russell Okung (CAR T), out · 0.6 pts
  • Stephen Weatherly (CAR DE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Panthers 69% · Washington 31%

Final margin
Panthers by 7
Luck in points
5.0 for the Panthers
Luck-adjusted margin
Panthers by 2.0
Replay with same day's form
Panthers 56% · Washington 44% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2020 games · Panthers · Washington

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