luckadjusted

Week 16 2020 · December 27, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Panthers at Washington, Week 16 2020: who deserved to win?

The Panthers beat Washington 20–13, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Panthers win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 3.1 points to the Panthers.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q1, 1:53 left): Return touchdown by the Panthers, worth 33 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Final

Carolina Panthers 20
Washington Football Team 13

December 27, 2020 · FedExField · Closing line: Panthers −1

Luck index +46 Panthers lucky · −46 Washington

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Panthers win 5, Washington win 5.

  1. 1 CAR 47 WAS 23
  2. 2 CAR 33 WAS 16
  3. 3 CAR 30 WAS 19
  4. 4 CAR 17 WAS 10
  5. 5 CAR 16 WAS 13
  6. 6 CAR 25 WAS 27
  7. 7 CAR 20 WAS 24
  8. 8 CAR 20 WAS 29
  9. 9 CAR 20 WAS 34
  10. 10 CAR 7 WAS 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Panthers win 54% of them, Washington 46%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Panthers by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Panthers by 17+11.3%
Panthers by 9–1615.3%
Panthers by 1–822.8%
Level after regulation5.7%
Washington by 1–820.6%
Washington by 9–1613.7%
Washington by 17+10.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Panthers by 7. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Panthers by 2.1.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Hopkins, 48 yds made · 73% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 26 yds made · 97% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Washington’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 63%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Washington were ahead in it, below while the Panthers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:21 The Panthers were stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +10% WAS CAR: Punt
2 Q1 8:03 Washington fumbled and the Panthers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% CAR WAS: Punt
3 Q1 1:53 Washington fumbled and the Panthers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the PanthersSpecial teams +33% CAR WAS: Punt
4 Q2 8:39 The Panthers converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 64% expected +4% CAR CAR: Touchdown
5 Q2 7:20 Washington converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +5% WAS WAS: Turnover
6 Q2 5:16 The Panthers converted 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 18% expected +5% CAR CAR: Touchdown
7 Q3 13:43 The Panthers converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expectedThe Panthers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% CAR CAR: Turnover
8 Q4 3:50 Offensive Holding on Washington, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +10% CAR CAR: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Terry McLaurin (WAS WR), out · 1.2 pts
  • Deshazor Everett (WAS S), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Alex Smith (WAS QB), out, replaced by d.haskins · 0.2 pts
  • Russell Okung (CAR T), out · 0.6 pts
  • Stephen Weatherly (CAR DE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Panthers 66% · Washington 34%

Final margin
Panthers by 7
Luck in points
4.9 for the Panthers
Luck-adjusted margin
Panthers by 2.1
Replay with same day's form
Panthers 54% · Washington 46% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2020 games · Panthers · Washington

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