luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 16 2020 · December 27, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Browns at Jets, Week 16 2020: who deserved to win?

The Jets beat the Browns 23–16, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Jets win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 10 points of win probability to the Jets.

Before kickoff the Browns were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:25 left): the Browns were stopped on 4th & 1, worth 13 points of win probability to the Jets.

Final

Cleveland Browns 16
New York Jets 23

December 27, 2020 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Browns −6.5

Luck index +43 Jets lucky · −43 Browns

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Browns win 4, Jets win 6.

  1. 1 CLE 35 NYJ 16
  2. 2 CLE 30 NYJ 17
  3. 3 CLE 21 NYJ 13
  4. 4 CLE 17 NYJ 14
  5. 5 CLE 20 NYJ 22
  6. 6 CLE 25 NYJ 30
  7. 7 CLE 19 NYJ 27
  8. 8 CLE 17 NYJ 30
  9. 9 CLE 3 NYJ 19
  10. 10 CLE 6 NYJ 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Browns win 43% of them, Jets 57%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jets by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Browns by 17+8.8%
Browns by 9–1613.5%
Browns by 1–818.4%
Level after regulation3.0%
Jets by 1–825.9%
Jets by 9–1616.4%
Jets by 17+14.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.6 points to the Jets: the final margin was Jets by 7, without the luck Jets by 2.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Parkey, 44 yds made · 80% expected
  • J. Gillan, 61 yds missed · 49% expected
  • S. Ficken, 50 yds blocked · 62% expected
  • S. Ficken, 34 yds made · 92% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Browns 6 for 51 yards, Jets 7 for 58 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:35 False Start on the Browns (Baker Mayfield), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NYJ +0.5 pts
Q1 0:34 Defensive Offside on the Browns (Vincent Taylor), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYJ +0.4 pts
Q2 10:11 Roughing the Passer on the Jets (Folorunso Fatukasi), 15 yards +3% CLE +1.0 pts
Q2 0:58 False Start on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CLE +0.3 pts
Q3 10:21 Clipping on the Browns, 11 yards +1% NYJ +1.1 pts
Q3 8:39 False Start on the Browns (Elijah Lee), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYJ +0.6 pts
Q3 6:44 Roughing the Kicker on the Browns, 15 yards +3% NYJ +3.9 pts
Q3 3:03 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Jets, 2 yards · pre-snap +1% CLE +0.5 pts
Q4 14:18 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Blessuan Austin), 11 yards +6% CLE +1.7 pts
Q4 8:53 False Start on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CLE +0.7 pts
Q4 7:12 Roughing the Passer on the Jets (Folorunso Fatukasi), 15 yards +4% CLE +1.0 pts
Q4 7:01 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Browns, 10 yards, wiping out the play +9% NYJ +1.7 pts
Q4 2:56 Delay of Game on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CLE +0.1 pts

Browns penalties, every game · Jets penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Jets’ chance of winning

As low as 44% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jets were ahead in it, below while the Browns were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:35 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 22% expectedFalse Start on the Browns (Baker Mayfield), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 7 flags in 1937 snaps before, position avg 1 per 669 +7% NYJ CLE: Field goal
2 Q1 7:58 The Jets converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +8% NYJ NYJ: Punt
3 Q2 15:00 The Browns fumbled and the Jets recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% NYJ CLE: Punt
4 Q4 14:18 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Blessuan Austin), 11 yardsJudgment calls · 6 flags in 1012 snaps before, position avg 1 per 207 +6% CLE CLE: Touchdown
5 Q4 7:01 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Browns, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +9% NYJ NYJ: Punt
6 Q4 5:35 The Jets converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +6% NYJ NYJ: Punt
7 Q4 3:24 The Browns fumbled and the Jets recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% NYJ CLE: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 1:25 The Browns were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expectedThe Browns fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +13% NYJ –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Quinnen Williams (NYJ DL), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Brian Poole (NYJ CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Jordan Jenkins (NYJ LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Alex Lewis (NYJ OL), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Greg Van Roten (NYJ G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Harvey Langi (NYJ LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Ashtyn Davis (NYJ S), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jarvis Landry (CLE WR), out · 0.9 pts
  • Wyatt Teller (CLE G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Rashard Higgins (CLE WR), out · 0.3 pts
  • B.J. Goodson (CLE LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Ronnie Harrison (CLE S), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Browns 37% · Jets 63%

Final margin
Jets by 7
Luck in points
4.6 for the Jets
Luck-adjusted margin
Jets by 2.4
Replay with same day's form
Browns 43% · Jets 57% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2020 games · Browns · Jets

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