luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 16 2020 · December 27, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Broncos at Chargers, Week 16 2020: who deserved to win?

The Chargers beat the Broncos 19–16, but the replays lean toward the Broncos: they take 7 of 10 with the same day's form.

Before kickoff the Chargers were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:20 left): the Broncos converted 4th & 10, worth 12 points of win probability to the Broncos.

Final

Denver Broncos 16
Los Angeles Chargers 19

December 27, 2020 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Chargers −2.5

Luck index +72 Chargers very lucky · −72 Broncos

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Broncos win 7, Chargers win 3.

  1. 1 DEN 29 LAC 3
  2. 2 DEN 44 LAC 26
  3. 3 DEN 22 LAC 7
  4. 4 DEN 25 LAC 13
  5. 5 DEN 29 LAC 21
  6. 6 DEN 22 LAC 17
  7. 7 DEN 26 LAC 24
  8. 8 DEN 14 LAC 17
  9. 9 DEN 20 LAC 27
  10. 10 DEN 2 LAC 19

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Broncos win 72% of them, Chargers 28%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chargers by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Broncos by 17+23.6%
Broncos by 9–1620.3%
Broncos by 1–827.2%
Level after regulation3.9%
Chargers by 1–814.5%
Chargers by 9–167.3%
Chargers by 17+3.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.3 points to the Chargers: the final margin was Chargers by 3, without the luck Chargers by 0.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Badgley, 37 yds made · 91% expected
  • B. McManus, 37 yds missed · 94% expected
  • M. Badgley, 43 yds made · 84% expected
  • B. McManus, 30 yds made · 97% expected
  • M. Badgley, 25 yds made · 97% expected
  • B. McManus, 50 yds made · 76% expected
  • B. McManus, 52 yds made · 74% expected
  • M. Badgley, 37 yds made · 91% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Broncos 6 for 44 yards, Chargers 6 for 45 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:53 Offensive Holding on the Broncos, 10 yards +2% LAC +0.9 pts
Q1 3:51 Illegal Contact on the Broncos, 5 yards +4% LAC +1.5 pts
Q2 13:29 Defensive Offside on the Chargers (Justin Jones), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DEN +0.3 pts
Q2 7:39 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Broncos, 10 yards +2% LAC +0.9 pts
Q2 6:32 Player Out of Bounds on Kick on the Broncos, 5 yards +1% LAC +0.5 pts
Q2 4:23 Face Mask on the Chargers, 15 yards +2% DEN +1.7 pts
Q3 12:19 Intentional Grounding on the Broncos (Drew Lock), 9 yards +1% LAC +0.8 pts
Q3 10:02 False Start on the Chargers (Tyron Johnson), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DEN +0.8 pts
Q4 14:54 Delay of Game on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DEN +0.3 pts
Q4 6:31 Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards +3% DEN +0.9 pts
Q4 6:26 False Start on the Chargers (Jalen Guyton), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% DEN +0.7 pts
Q4 4:14 False Start on the Broncos (Noah Fant), 5 yards · pre-snap +6% LAC +0.5 pts

Broncos penalties, every game · Chargers penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Chargers’ chance of winning

As low as 46% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chargers were ahead in it, below while the Broncos were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 15:00 The Broncos converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +8% DEN DEN: Missed field goal
2 Q2 13:25 B. McManus missed a 37-yard field goalKicks · 94% expected for him +11% LAC DEN: Punt
3 Q4 8:19 The Broncos converted 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +7% DEN DEN: Touchdown
4 Q4 5:40 The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +7% DEN LAC: Punt
5 Q4 2:52 The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +7% LAC DEN: Field goal
6 Q4 2:47 B. McManus made a 52-yard field goalKicks · 74% expected for him, 21 of 27 from 45+ before +10% DEN DEN: Turnover
7 Q4 0:29 The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +8% LAC DEN: Turnover
8 Q4 0:20 The Broncos converted 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +12% DEN DEN: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Keenan Allen (LAC WR), out · 1.1 pts
  • Hunter Henry (LAC TE), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Joey Bosa (LAC DE), out · 1.0 pts
  • Melvin Ingram (LAC DE), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Kyzir White (LAC LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Demar Dotson (DEN T), out · 0.6 pts
  • Bryce Callahan (DEN CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • A.J. Bouye (DEN CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Bradley Chubb (DEN OLB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Essang Bassey (DEN CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Broncos 49% · Chargers 51%

Final margin
Chargers by 3
Luck in points
2.3 for the Chargers
Luck-adjusted margin
Chargers by 0.7
Replay with same day's form
Broncos 72% · Chargers 28% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2020 games · Broncos · Chargers

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