luckadjusted

Week 16 2020 · December 27, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Broncos at Chargers, Week 16 2020: who deserved to win?

The Chargers beat the Broncos 19–16, but the Broncos played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 3.0 points to the Chargers.

Before kickoff the Chargers were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 5:20 left): the Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 6, worth 14 points of win probability to the Chargers.

Final

Denver Broncos 16
Los Angeles Chargers 19

December 27, 2020 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Chargers −2.5

Luck index +73 Chargers very lucky · −73 Broncos

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Broncos win 7, Chargers win 3.

  1. 1 DEN 43 LAC 16
  2. 2 DEN 34 LAC 14
  3. 3 DEN 27 LAC 12
  4. 4 DEN 23 LAC 12
  5. 5 DEN 17 LAC 10
  6. 6 DEN 35 LAC 31
  7. 7 DEN 16 LAC 14
  8. 8 DEN 21 LAC 23
  9. 9 DEN 30 LAC 38
  10. 10 DEN 12 LAC 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Broncos win 73% of them, Chargers 27%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chargers by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Broncos by 17+23.1%
Broncos by 9–1620.8%
Broncos by 1–827.5%
Level after regulation3.5%
Chargers by 1–814.4%
Chargers by 9–167.0%
Chargers by 17+3.6%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Chargers by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Chargers by 0.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Badgley, 37 yds made · 90% expected
  • B. McManus, 37 yds missed · 93% expected
  • M. Badgley, 43 yds made · 84% expected
  • B. McManus, 30 yds made · 98% expected
  • M. Badgley, 25 yds made · 97% expected
  • B. McManus, 50 yds made · 78% expected
  • B. McManus, 52 yds made · 75% expected
  • M. Badgley, 37 yds made · 91% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Chargers’ chance of winning

As low as 46% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chargers were ahead in it, below while the Broncos were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 5:20 The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +14% LAC DEN: Missed field goal
2 Q2 15:00 The Broncos converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +9% DEN DEN: Missed field goal
3 Q2 13:25 B. McManus missed 37-yard field goalKicks · 93% expected for him +11% LAC DEN: Punt
4 Q4 8:19 The Broncos converted 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +9% DEN DEN: Touchdown
5 Q4 5:40 The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +7% DEN LAC: Punt
6 Q4 2:47 B. McManus made 52-yard field goalKicks · 75% expected for him, 21 of 27 from 45+ before +9% DEN DEN: Turnover
7 Q4 0:29 The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +8% LAC DEN: Turnover
8 Q4 0:20 The Broncos converted 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +12% DEN DEN: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Keenan Allen (LAC WR), out · 1.1 pts
  • Hunter Henry (LAC TE), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Joey Bosa (LAC DE), out · 1.0 pts
  • Melvin Ingram (LAC DE), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Kyzir White (LAC LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Demar Dotson (DEN T), out · 0.6 pts
  • Bryce Callahan (DEN CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • A.J. Bouye (DEN CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Bradley Chubb (DEN OLB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Essang Bassey (DEN CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Broncos 55% · Chargers 45%

Final margin
Chargers by 3
Luck in points
2.7 for the Chargers
Luck-adjusted margin
Chargers by 0.3
Replay with same day's form
Broncos 73% · Chargers 27% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2020 games · Broncos · Chargers

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