luckadjusted

Week 16 2020 · December 26, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Dolphins at Raiders, Week 16 2020: who deserved to win?

The Dolphins stole one. They beat the Raiders 26–25, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Raiders win 9 of 10. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 3.2 points to the Dolphins.

The Dolphins won on an off day: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Raiders they would win 55% of the time; with this day’s form, 9%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Dolphins were 56% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:19 left): Roughing the Passer on the Raiders (Arden Key), 15 yards, worth 31 points of win probability to the Dolphins.

Final

Miami Dolphins 26
Las Vegas Raiders 25

December 26, 2020 · Allegiant Stadium · Closing line: Dolphins −2

Luck index +91 Dolphins very lucky · −91 Raiders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Dolphins win 1, Raiders win 9.

  1. 1 MIA 32 LV 26
  2. 2 MIA 27 LV 30
  3. 3 MIA 27 LV 33
  4. 4 MIA 26 LV 34
  5. 5 MIA 29 LV 41
  6. 6 MIA 30 LV 45
  7. 7 MIA 22 LV 41
  8. 8 MIA 33 LV 55
  9. 9 MIA 20 LV 48
  10. 10 MIA 16 LV 52

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

The Dolphins won on an off day

They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Raiders they would win 55% of the time; with this day’s form, 9%.

45 points apart for the Dolphins: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Dolphins offenseEPA per play gained +0.11 +0.09 better by 0.02
Dolphins defenseEPA per play allowed +0.01 +0.13 better by 0.12
Raiders offenseEPA per play gained +0.01 +0.17 worse by 0.15
Raiders defenseEPA per play allowed +0.11 +0.19 better by 0.07

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Dolphins win 9% of them, Raiders 91%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Dolphins by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Dolphins by 17+0.9%
Dolphins by 9–162.1%
Dolphins by 1–85.8%
Level after regulation0.9%
Raiders by 1–815.0%
Raiders by 9–1618.8%
Raiders by 17+56.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Dolphins by 1. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Raiders by 2.6.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Sanders, 37 yds made · 92% expected
  • D. Carlson, 23 yds made · 98% expected
  • J. Sanders, 39 yds made · 90% expected
  • D. Carlson, 38 yds made · 90% expected
  • D. Carlson, 20 yds made · 99% expected
  • J. Sanders, 22 yds made · 99% expected
  • D. Carlson, 22 yds made · 98% expected
  • J. Sanders, 44 yds made · 84% expected
  • Extra point missed · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Raiders’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 87%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Raiders were ahead in it, below while the Dolphins were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 3:38 The Dolphins converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +9% MIA MIA: Field goal
2 Q4 6:09 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +11% MIA MIA: Field goal
3 Q4 4:08 The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +8% LV MIA: Field goal
4 Q4 2:28 Defensive Pass Interference on the Dolphins (Byron Jones), 49 yardsJudgment calls · 4 flags in 1800 snaps before, position avg 1 per 207 +19% LV LV: Field goal
5 Q4 0:23 D. Carlson made 22-yard field goalKicks · 98% expected for him +28% LV LV: Turnover
6 Q4 0:19 Roughing the Passer on the Raiders (Arden Key), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 4 flags in 595 snaps before, position avg 1 per 259 +31% MIA MIA: Field goal
7 Q4 0:06 J. Sanders made 44-yard field goalKicks · 84% expected for him +9% MIA –
8 Q4 0:01 The Raiders fumbled and the Dolphins recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +16% MIA –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Brandon Parker (LV T), out · 0.5 pts
  • Clelin Ferrell (LV DE), out · 0.4 pts
  • Erik Harris (LV S), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Nicholas Morrow (LV LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Nick Kwiatkoski (LV LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Jeff Heath (LV S), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • DeVante Parker (MIA WR), out · 0.7 pts
  • Preston Williams (MIA WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Shaq Lawson (MIA DE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Solomon Kindley (MIA G), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Dolphins 32% · Raiders 68%

Final margin
Dolphins by 1
Luck in points
3.6 for the Dolphins
Luck-adjusted margin
Raiders by 2.6
Replay with same day's form
Dolphins 9% · Raiders 91% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2020 games · Dolphins · Raiders

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