2020 season · final
Arizona Cardinals, 2020: game by game
The Cardinals went 8–8 in 2020; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 9.0 wins. Luck cost them 1.0: the 13th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 4–5.
Every game
How often the Cardinals win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ 49ers | W 24–20 | 23% | +77 |
| Week 2 | vs Washington | W 30–15 | 79% | +21 |
| Week 3 | vs Lions | L 23–26 | 68% | −68 |
| Week 4 | @ Panthers | L 21–31 | 22% | −22 |
| Week 5 | @ Jets | W 30–10 | 98% | +2 |
| Week 6 | @ Cowboys | W 38–10 | 86% | +14 |
| Week 7 | vs Seahawks | W 37–34 | 13% | +87 |
| Week 9 | vs Dolphins | L 31–34 | 68% | −68 |
| Week 10 | vs Bills | W 32–30 | 68% | +32 |
| Week 11 | @ Seahawks | L 21–28 | 58% | −58 |
| Week 12 | @ Patriots | L 17–20 | 65% | −65 |
| Week 13 | vs Rams | L 28–38 | 9% | −9 |
| Week 14 | @ Giants | W 26–7 | 96% | +4 |
| Week 15 | vs Eagles | W 33–26 | 85% | +15 |
| Week 16 | vs 49ers | L 12–20 | 5% | −5 |
| Week 17 | @ Rams | L 7–18 | 53% | −53 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Cardinals’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Fumble bounces | +0.47 | +12.4 |
| Injuries | +0.33 | +11.4 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.09 | −3.8 |
| Judgment calls | +0.06 | +0.6 |
| Kicks | −1.02 | −5.4 |