2020 season · final

Arizona Cardinals, 2020: game by game

The Cardinals went 8–8 in 2020; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 9.0 wins. Luck cost them 1.0: the 13th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 4–5.

Every game

How often the Cardinals win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ 49ers	W 24–20	26%	+74
Week 2	vs Washington	W 30–15	76%	+24
Week 3	vs Lions	L 23–26	70%	−70
Week 4	@ Panthers	L 21–31	20%	−20
Week 5	@ Jets	W 30–10	98%	+2
Week 6	@ Cowboys	W 38–10	85%	+15
Week 7	vs Seahawks	W 37–34	14%	+86
Week 9	vs Dolphins	L 31–34	69%	−69
Week 10	vs Bills	W 32–30	69%	+31
Week 11	@ Seahawks	L 21–28	57%	−57
Week 12	@ Patriots	L 17–20	65%	−65
Week 13	vs Rams	L 28–38	9%	−9
Week 14	@ Giants	W 26–7	96%	+4
Week 15	vs Eagles	W 33–26	85%	+15
Week 16	vs 49ers	L 12–20	5%	−5
Week 17	@ Rams	L 7–18	54%	−54

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 +74 @ SF

Wk 2 +24 vs WAS

Wk 3 −70 vs DET

Wk 4 −20 @ CAR

Wk 5 +2 @ NYJ

Wk 6 +15 @ DAL

Wk 7 +86 vs SEA

Wk 9 −69 vs MIA

Wk 10 +31 vs BUF

Wk 11 −57 @ SEA

Wk 12 −65 @ NE

Wk 13 −9 vs LA

Wk 14 +4 @ NYG

Wk 15 +15 vs PHI

Wk 16 −5 vs SF

Wk 17 −54 @ LA

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Cardinals’ favor.

Kind	Points	Per game
Injuries	+15.3	+0.96
Fumble bounces	+9.4	+0.59
Judgment calls	+2.5	+0.16
Rest	+0.2	+0.01
3rd & 4th downs	−5.4	−0.34
Kicks	−5.6	−0.35