One-score games · decided by 8 points or fewer

The Cardinals in one-score games

The Cardinals are 2–1 in one-score games in 2026 so far, after 2–8 in 2025. Replayed with the same day’s form, they win 0.8 of those 3. Since 2019: 21–39–1 in 61 one-score games, 27.4 wins in replays.

A good record in close games looks like clutch. It rarely lasts: from 2019 to 2025, a team’s win rate in one-score games carried into the next season at a correlation of 0.12, against 0.39 for its overall record. How often a team wins those games in replays says what its play was worth.

Close-game luck by season

One-score wins minus how many of those games the Cardinals win in replays (regular season).

2026 +1.2 2–1

2025 −2.9 2–8

2024 −1.4 3–5

2023 −0.5 2–5

2022 −0.9 2–6

2021 −0.3 3–4

2020 −0.5 4–5

2019 −0.6 3–5–1

Season	One-score record	Replay wins in those games	Close-game luck	Overall record
2026	2–1	0.8 of 3	+1.2	3–6
2025	2–8	4.9 of 10	−2.9	3–14
2024	3–5	4.4 of 8	−1.4	8–9
2023	2–5	2.5 of 7	−0.5	4–13
2022	2–6	2.9 of 8	−0.9	4–13
2021	3–4	3.3 of 7	−0.3	11–6
2020	4–5	4.5 of 9	−0.5	8–8
2019	3–5–1	4.1 of 9	−0.6	5–10–1

2026 one-score games

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 3	@ 49ers	L 30–36	8%	−8
Week 6	@ Rams	W 18–16	35%	+65
Week 8	@ Cowboys	W 33–30	36%	+64

Every team’s one-score record, 2026 · Arizona Cardinals, every season