luckadjusted

One-score games · decided by 8 points or fewer

The Cardinals in one-score games

The Cardinals are 0–0 in one-score games in 2026 so far, after 2–8 in 2025. Replayed with the same day’s form, they win 0.0 of those 0. Since 2019: 19–38–1 in 58 one-score games, 26.8 wins in replays.

A good record in close games looks like clutch. It rarely lasts: from 2019 to 2025, a team’s win rate in one-score games carried into the next season at a correlation of 0.12, against 0.39 for its overall record. How often a team wins those games in replays says what its play was worth.

Close-game luck by season

One-score wins minus how many of those games the Cardinals win in replays (regular season).

SeasonOne-score recordReplay wins in those gamesClose-game luckOverall record
20260–00.0 of 0 0.01–1
20252–84.7 of 10 −2.73–14
20243–54.9 of 8 −1.98–9
20232–52.5 of 7 −0.54–13
20222–62.8 of 8 −0.84–13
20213–43.3 of 7 −0.311–6
20204–54.6 of 9 −0.68–8
20193–5–14.1 of 9 −0.65–10–1

Every team’s one-score record, 2026 · Arizona Cardinals, every season