2022 season · final

Arizona Cardinals, 2022: game by game

The Cardinals went 4–13 in 2022; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 5.3 wins. Luck cost them 1.3: the 7th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 2–6.

Every game

How often the Cardinals win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Chiefs	L 21–44	6%	−6
Week 2	@ Raiders	W 29–23	69%	+31
Week 3	vs Rams	L 12–20	20%	−20
Week 4	@ Panthers	W 26–16	96%	+4
Week 5	vs Eagles	L 17–20	59%	−59
Week 6	@ Seahawks	L 9–19	9%	−9
Week 7	vs Saints	W 42–34	14%	+86
Week 8	@ Vikings	L 26–34	7%	−7
Week 9	vs Seahawks	L 21–31	1%	−1
Week 10	@ Rams	W 27–17	88%	+12
Week 11	vs 49ers	L 10–38	1%	−1
Week 12	vs Chargers	L 24–25	54%	−54
Week 14	vs Patriots	L 13–27	19%	−19
Week 15	@ Broncos	L 15–24	13%	−13
Week 16	vs Buccaneers	L 16–19	9%	−9
Week 17	@ Falcons	L 19–20	57%	−57
Week 18	@ 49ers	L 13–38	5%	−5

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 −6 vs KC

Wk 2 +31 @ LV

Wk 3 −20 vs LA

Wk 4 +4 @ CAR

Wk 5 −59 vs PHI

Wk 6 −9 @ SEA

Wk 7 +86 vs NO

Wk 8 −7 @ MIN

Wk 9 −1 vs SEA

Wk 10 +12 @ LA

Wk 11 −1 vs SF

Wk 12 −54 vs LAC

Wk 14 −19 vs NE

Wk 15 −13 @ DEN

Wk 16 −9 vs TB

Wk 17 −57 @ ATL

Wk 18 −5 @ SF

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Cardinals’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

Kind	Wins	Points
Judgment calls	+0.15	+0.7
Fumble bounces	−0.04	+4.2
Kicks	−0.22	−5.7
3rd & 4th downs	−0.31	−8.0
Drops	−0.34	−19.8
Injuries	−0.63	−28.0