luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 2 2022 · September 18, 2022

Cardinals at Raiders, Week 2 2022: who deserved to win?

The Cardinals beat the Raiders 29–23, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10. The Raiders had the bounces: drops alone were worth 13 points of win probability to the Raiders.

An off day for the Raiders: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Cardinals they would win 66% of the time; with this day’s form, 31%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Raiders were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (OT, 4:05 left): Return touchdown by the Cardinals, worth 73 points of win probability to the Cardinals.

Final (OT)

Arizona Cardinals 29
Las Vegas Raiders 23

September 18, 2022 · Allegiant Stadium · Closing line: Raiders −5.5

Luck index +31 Cardinals lucky · −31 Raiders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cardinals win 7, Raiders win 3.

  1. 1 ARI 24 LV 3
  2. 2 ARI 26 LV 10
  3. 3 ARI 29 LV 17
  4. 4 ARI 29 LV 19
  5. 5 ARI 27 LV 20
  6. 6 ARI 14 LV 10
  7. 7 ARI 26 LV 24
  8. 8 ARI 17 LV 19
  9. 9 ARI 9 LV 17
  10. 10 ARI 14 LV 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Raiders

They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Cardinals they would win 66% of the time; with this day’s form, 31%.

34 points apart for the Raiders: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Cardinals offenseEPA per play gained −0.11 +0.12 worse by 0.24
Cardinals defenseEPA per play allowed +0.22 +0.14 worse by 0.08
Raiders offenseEPA per play gained +0.22 +0.11 better by 0.12
Raiders defenseEPA per play allowed −0.11 +0.08 better by 0.20

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cardinals win 69% of them, Raiders 31%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cardinals by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cardinals by 17+15.3%
Cardinals by 9–1620.5%
Cardinals by 1–831.1%
Level after regulation1.8%
Raiders by 1–818.8%
Raiders by 9–168.9%
Raiders by 17+3.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +7.3 points to the Raiders: the final margin was Cardinals by 6, without the luck Cardinals by 13.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Carlson, 32 yds made · 96% expected
  • D. Carlson, 55 yds made · 71% expected
  • D. Carlson, 25 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Cardinals 12 for 120 yards, Raiders 10 for 68 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:17 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Cardinals (Michael Dogbe), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% LV +0.5 pts
Q1 9:41 Illegal Formation on the Raiders, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% ARI +1.2 pts
Q1 6:15 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals, 3 yards +5% LV +1.7 pts
Q1 1:21 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Cardinals (J.J. Watt), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LV +0.6 pts
Q2 15:00 False Start on the Raiders, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% ARI +0.6 pts
Q2 13:33 Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yards +4% ARI +1.5 pts
Q2 9:35 Intentional Grounding on the Cardinals (Kyler Murray), 15 yards +3% LV +1.2 pts
Q2 7:00 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Cardinals, 10 yards +1% LV +0.9 pts
Q2 4:57 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Cardinals, 5 yards, wiping out the play +3% LV +1.5 pts
Q2 3:36 Defensive Holding on the Raiders, 5 yards, wiping out the play +8% ARI +5.3 pts
Q2 1:51 Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yards +1% ARI +0.9 pts
Q2 0:36 Illegal Formation on the Raiders, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +2% ARI +1.6 pts
Q3 14:26 Face Mask on the Raiders (Bilal Nichols), 15 yards, wiping out the play +2% ARI +2.3 pts
Q3 11:30 Illegal Formation on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LV +1.0 pts
Q3 10:05 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals (A.J. Green), 10 yards +1% LV +0.7 pts
Q3 4:41 Illegal Formation on the Raiders (Mack Hollins), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ARI +0.7 pts
Q3 4:15 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals (Marco Wilson), 47 yards +1% LV +2.6 pts
Q4 9:56 Offensive Too Many Men on Field on the Cardinals, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +2% LV +1.9 pts
Q4 2:20 Defensive Holding on the Raiders (Rock Ya-Sin), 5 yards, wiping out the play +4% ARI +0.6 pts
Q4 0:30 Defensive Holding on the Raiders, 3 yards +3% ARI +2.7 pts
Q4 0:00 Delay of Game on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LV 0.0 pts
OT 7:40 False Start on the Cardinals (Zach Ertz), 5 yards · pre-snap +4% LV +0.6 pts

Cardinals penalties, every game · Raiders penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Raiders’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 98%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Raiders were ahead in it, below while the Cardinals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:39 The Raiders converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +8% LV LV: Touchdown
2 Q1 7:45 The Raiders converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +9% LV LV: Touchdown
3 Q4 0:05 The Cardinals converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +16% ARI ARI: Touchdown
4 Q4 0:00 The Cardinals’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedDelay of Game on the Cardinals, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +20% ARI ARI: Turnover on downs
5 OT 5:36 M. Brown dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 13 catchable balls before this +8% LV –
6 OT 4:45 The Raiders converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expectedThe Raiders fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +37% LV LV: Opp touchdown
7 OT 4:11 The Raiders got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throws +16% LV LV: Opp touchdown
8 OT 4:05 The Raiders fumbled and the Cardinals recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the CardinalsSpecial teams +73% ARI –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Brandon Parker (LV T), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Andre James (LV C), out · 0.4 pts
  • Denzel Perryman (LV LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • DeAndre Hopkins (ARI WR), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Antoine Wesley (ARI WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cardinals 98% · Raiders 2%

Final margin
Cardinals by 6
Luck in points
7.3 for the Raiders
Luck-adjusted margin
Cardinals by 13.3
Replay with same day's form
Cardinals 69% · Raiders 31% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2022 games · Cardinals · Raiders

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