luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 2 2022 · September 15, 2022

Chargers at Chiefs, Week 2 2022: who deserved to win?

The Chiefs beat the Chargers 27–24, but the replays lean toward the Chargers: they take 6 of 10 with the same day's form.

Before kickoff the Chiefs were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 10:43 left): Return touchdown by the Chiefs, worth 58 points of win probability to the Chiefs.

Final

Los Angeles Chargers 24
Kansas City Chiefs 27

September 15, 2022 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · Closing line: Chiefs −4

Luck index +64 Chiefs very lucky · −64 Chargers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Chargers win 6, Chiefs win 4.

  1. 1 LAC 50 KC 24
  2. 2 LAC 19 KC 0
  3. 3 LAC 37 KC 23
  4. 4 LAC 24 KC 14
  5. 5 LAC 27 KC 21
  6. 6 LAC 23 KC 21
  7. 7 LAC 21 KC 24
  8. 8 LAC 34 KC 41
  9. 9 LAC 24 KC 34
  10. 10 LAC 10 KC 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Chargers win 63% of them, Chiefs 37%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chiefs by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Chargers by 17+18.3%
Chargers by 9–1618.8%
Chargers by 1–826.1%
Level after regulation1.9%
Chiefs by 1–818.3%
Chiefs by 9–169.7%
Chiefs by 17+7.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.9 points to the Chargers: the final margin was Chiefs by 3, without the luck Chiefs by 4.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Hopkins, 31 yds made · 95% expected
  • M. Ammendola, 19 yds made · 98% expected
  • M. Ammendola, 31 yds made · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Chargers 3 for 25 yards, Chiefs 6 for 54 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 7:40 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chiefs (Rashad Fenton), 8 yards +4% LAC +1.3 pts
Q2 13:38 Illegal Contact on the Chargers, 5 yards, wiping out the play +14% KC +4.9 pts
Q2 11:38 Delay of Kickoff on the Chiefs, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LAC 0.0 pts
Q2 0:53 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs, 6 yards +4% LAC +0.3 pts
Q3 2:28 Delay of Game on the Chiefs, 5 yards · pre-snap +6% LAC +0.8 pts
Q4 14:58 Unnecessary Roughness on the Chiefs, 15 yards +4% LAC +1.4 pts
Q4 8:28 Unnecessary Roughness on the Chiefs, 15 yards +3% LAC +1.4 pts
Q4 8:28 False Start on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% KC +0.4 pts
Q4 3:55 Face Mask on the Chargers (Derwin James), 15 yards +1% KC +1.6 pts

Chargers penalties, every game · Chiefs penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Chiefs’ chance of winning

As low as 19% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chiefs were ahead in it, below while the Chargers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:03 The Chargers converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +6% LAC LAC: Field goal
2 Q2 13:38 Illegal Contact on the Chargers, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +14% KC KC: Touchdown
3 Q2 6:10 The Chiefs were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 80% expected +6% LAC KC: Punt
4 Q3 7:28 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +8% KC KC: Touchdown
5 Q3 3:16 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +9% KC KC: Field goal
6 Q3 2:28 Delay of Game on the Chiefs, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +6% LAC LAC: Opp touchdown
7 Q3 0:34 The Chiefs got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throws +8% KC KC: Field goal
8 Q4 10:43 The Chargers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throwsReturn touchdown by the ChiefsSpecial teams +58% KC LAC: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Harrison Butker (KC K), out · 0.5 pts
  • Lucas Niang (KC T), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Keenan Allen (LAC WR), out · 1.0 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Chargers 16% · Chiefs 84%

Final margin
Chiefs by 3
Luck in points
1.9 for the Chargers
Luck-adjusted margin
Chiefs by 4.9
Replay with same day's form
Chargers 63% · Chiefs 37% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2022 games · Chargers · Chiefs

More from Week 2 2022