luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 2 2022 · September 18, 2022

Panthers at Giants, Week 2 2022: who deserved to win?

The Giants beat the Panthers 19–16, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10. The Panthers had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 10 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q4, 3:38 left): G. Gano made a 56-yard field goal, worth 12 points of win probability to the Giants.

Final

Carolina Panthers 16
New York Giants 19

September 18, 2022 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Panthers −1

Luck index +29 Giants lucky · −29 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Panthers win 3, Giants win 7.

  1. 1 CAR 21 NYG 7
  2. 2 CAR 24 NYG 16
  3. 3 CAR 13 NYG 10
  4. 4 CAR 26 NYG 28
  5. 5 CAR 10 NYG 13
  6. 6 CAR 6 NYG 13
  7. 7 CAR 27 NYG 37
  8. 8 CAR 20 NYG 33
  9. 9 CAR 3 NYG 20
  10. 10 CAR 10 NYG 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Panthers win 29% of them, Giants 71%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Giants by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Panthers by 17+3.4%
Panthers by 9–168.1%
Panthers by 1–815.8%
Level after regulation4.0%
Giants by 1–824.1%
Giants by 9–1622.6%
Giants by 17+22.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +8.2 points to the Giants: the final margin was Giants by 3, without the luck Panthers by 5.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Gano, 36 yds made · 93% expected
  • G. Gano, 33 yds made · 96% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 31 yds made · 95% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 32 yds made · 95% expected
  • G. Gano, 52 yds made · 70% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 38 yds made · 90% expected
  • G. Gano, 56 yds made · 67% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Panthers 5 for 38 yards, Giants 8 for 62 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:07 Face Mask on the Giants (Jihad Ward), 15 yards +5% CAR +1.8 pts
Q1 10:54 Offensive Pass Interference on the Panthers (Shi Smith), 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% NYG +1.7 pts
Q2 10:11 Offensive Pass Interference on the Giants, 10 yards, wiping out the play +12% CAR +4.1 pts
Q2 6:13 False Start on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% NYG +0.7 pts
Q2 5:28 Player Out of Bounds on Kick on the Giants (Matt Breida), 5 yards +2% CAR +0.5 pts
Q3 12:59 Illegal Contact on the Giants (Julian Love), 5 yards +2% CAR +0.9 pts
Q3 5:03 False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CAR +0.8 pts
Q4 15:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Panthers (Jaycee Horn), 13 yards +7% NYG +1.7 pts
Q4 11:48 Illegal Contact on the Giants (Adoree' Jackson), 5 yards +1% CAR +0.3 pts
Q4 11:03 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Panthers, 5 yards +1% NYG +0.8 pts
Q4 4:25 Offensive Holding on the Giants, 10 yards +9% CAR +1.2 pts
Q4 2:57 Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Darnay Holmes), 7 yards +1% CAR +0.2 pts
Q4 2:00 Encroachment on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NYG +0.4 pts

Panthers penalties, every game · Giants penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Giants’ chance of winning

As low as 26% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Giants were ahead in it, below while the Panthers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 10:11 Offensive Pass Interference on the Giants, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +12% CAR CAR: Punt
2 Q3 1:24 The Panthers got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throws +8% CAR CAR: Punt
3 Q4 14:44 The Giants converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +9% NYG NYG: Field goal
4 Q4 12:35 G. Gano made a 52-yard field goalKicks · 70% expected for him, 19 of 23 from 45+ before +8% NYG NYG: Field goal
5 Q4 4:25 Offensive Holding on the Giants, 10 yardsJudgment calls +9% CAR CAR: Punt
6 Q4 3:38 G. Gano made a 56-yard field goalKicks · 67% expected for him, 20 of 24 from 45+ before +12% NYG NYG: End of game
7 Q4 2:42 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +9% NYG CAR: Punt
8 Q4 1:50 The Giants converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +8% NYG NYG: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Aaron Robinson (NYG CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Azeez Ojulari (NYG LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Zane Gonzalez (CAR K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Panthers 82% · Giants 18%

Final margin
Giants by 3
Luck in points
8.2 for the Giants
Luck-adjusted margin
Panthers by 5.2
Replay with same day's form
Panthers 29% · Giants 71% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2022 games · Panthers · Giants

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