luckadjusted

Week 2 2022 · September 18, 2022

Panthers at Giants, Week 2 2022: who deserved to win?

The Giants beat the Panthers 19–16 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Panthers had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 5.0 points to the Panthers.

An off day for the Panthers: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Giants they would win 56% of the time; with this day’s form, 26%. The numbers

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q4, 3:38 left): G. Gano made 56-yard field goal, worth 13 points of win probability to the Giants.

Final

Carolina Panthers 16
New York Giants 19

September 18, 2022 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Panthers −1

Luck index +26 Giants lucky · −26 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Panthers win 3, Giants win 7.

  1. 1 CAR 20 NYG 6
  2. 2 CAR 17 NYG 10
  3. 3 CAR 15 NYG 13
  4. 4 CAR 25 NYG 27
  5. 5 CAR 16 NYG 20
  6. 6 CAR 21 NYG 29
  7. 7 CAR 3 NYG 14
  8. 8 CAR 7 NYG 21
  9. 9 CAR 7 NYG 25
  10. 10 CAR 10 NYG 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Panthers

They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Giants they would win 56% of the time; with this day’s form, 26%.

30 points apart for the Panthers: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Panthers offenseEPA per play gained +0.02 +0.05 worse by 0.03
Panthers defenseEPA per play allowed −0.13 +0.07 better by 0.19
Giants offenseEPA per play gained −0.13 +0.03 worse by 0.16
Giants defenseEPA per play allowed +0.02 +0.12 better by 0.11

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Panthers win 26% of them, Giants 74%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Giants by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Panthers by 17+2.6%
Panthers by 9–167.4%
Panthers by 1–814.0%
Level after regulation3.5%
Giants by 1–826.5%
Giants by 9–1621.8%
Giants by 17+24.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Giants by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Panthers by 0.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Gano, 36 yds made · 93% expected
  • G. Gano, 33 yds made · 95% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 31 yds made · 95% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 32 yds made · 95% expected
  • G. Gano, 52 yds made · 71% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 38 yds made · 89% expected
  • G. Gano, 56 yds made · 65% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Giants’ chance of winning

As low as 26% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Giants were ahead in it, below while the Panthers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:16 The Giants converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +8% NYG NYG: Field goal
2 Q2 12:23 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expectedS. Smith dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 1 catchable balls before this +9% NYG CAR: Field goal
3 Q2 10:11 Offensive Pass Interference on the Giants, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +12% CAR CAR: Punt
4 Q3 1:24 The Panthers got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +9% CAR CAR: Punt
5 Q4 14:44 The Giants converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +10% NYG NYG: Field goal
6 Q4 4:25 Offensive Holding on the Giants, 10 yardsJudgment calls +9% CAR CAR: Punt
7 Q4 3:38 G. Gano made 56-yard field goalKicks · 65% expected for him, 20 of 24 from 45+ before +13% NYG NYG: End of game
8 Q4 2:42 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +11% NYG CAR: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Aaron Robinson (NYG CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Azeez Ojulari (NYG LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Zane Gonzalez (CAR K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Panthers 54% · Giants 46%

Final margin
Giants by 3
Luck in points
3.4 for the Giants
Luck-adjusted margin
Panthers by 0.4
Replay with same day's form
Panthers 26% · Giants 74% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2022 games · Panthers · Giants

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