luckadjusted

Week 2 2022 · September 18, 2022

Falcons at Rams, Week 2 2022: who deserved to win?

The Rams beat the Falcons 31–27, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Rams win 8 of 10. The Falcons had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 5.8 points to the Falcons.

Before kickoff the Rams were 78% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:18 left): the Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 13, worth 35 points of win probability to the Rams.

Final

Atlanta Falcons 27
Los Angeles Rams 31

September 18, 2022 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Rams −10.5

Luck index +18 Rams about even · −18 Falcons

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Falcons win 2, Rams win 8.

  1. 1 ATL 34 LA 21
  2. 2 ATL 31 LA 28
  3. 3 ATL 23 LA 26
  4. 4 ATL 17 LA 23
  5. 5 ATL 16 LA 24
  6. 6 ATL 19 LA 31
  7. 7 ATL 13 LA 27
  8. 8 ATL 13 LA 31
  9. 9 ATL 12 LA 33
  10. 10 ATL 10 LA 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Falcons win 18% of them, Rams 82%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Rams by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Falcons by 17+1.9%
Falcons by 9–164.9%
Falcons by 1–810.3%
Level after regulation1.3%
Rams by 1–823.4%
Rams by 9–1622.2%
Rams by 17+36.0%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Rams by 4. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Rams by 6.5.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • Y. Koo, 44 yds missed · 85% expected
  • Y. Koo, 26 yds made · 99% expected
  • M. Gay, 20 yds made · 99% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Rams’ chance of winning

As low as 44% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Rams were ahead in it, below while the Falcons were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:32 The Falcons converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +8% ATL ATL: Missed field goal
2 Q1 6:59 Y. Koo missed 44-yard field goalKicks · 85% expected for him +10% LA ATL: Turnover on downs
3 Q1 1:02 Defensive Pass Interference on the Rams (Jalen Ramsey), 20 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 15 flags in 3295 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +15% ATL ATL: Turnover on downs
4 Q2 0:39 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedThe Falcons were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +11% LA ATL: End of half
5 Q4 5:06 Blocked punt by the FalconsSpecial teams +7% ATL ATL: Opp touchdown
6 Q4 3:32 The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedThe Rams fumbled and the Falcons recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +21% ATL LA: Safety
7 Q4 1:18 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 23% expectedThe Falcons threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +35% LA ATL: Turnover
8 Q4 0:06 The Falcons fumbled and the Rams recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% LA –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Van Jefferson (LA WR), out · 0.6 pts
  • Brian Allen (LA C), out · 0.3 pts
  • Deion Jones (ATL LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jalen Mayfield (ATL G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Falcons 25% · Rams 75%

Final margin
Rams by 4
Luck in points
2.5 for the Falcons
Luck-adjusted margin
Rams by 6.5
Replay with same day's form
Falcons 18% · Rams 82% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2022 games · Falcons · Rams

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