luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 2 2022 · September 18, 2022

Texans at Broncos, Week 2 2022: who deserved to win?

The Broncos beat the Texans 16–9, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Broncos win 10 of 10. The Texans had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 19 points of win probability to the Texans.

Before kickoff the Broncos were 78% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:31 left): B. Cooks dropped a catchable pass, worth 27 points of win probability to the Broncos.

Final

Houston Texans 9
Denver Broncos 16

September 18, 2022 · Empower Field at Mile High · Closing line: Broncos −10.5

Luck index +5 Broncos about even · −5 Texans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Texans win 0, Broncos win 10.

  1. 1 HOU 17 DEN 19
  2. 2 HOU 17 DEN 22
  3. 3 HOU 27 DEN 35
  4. 4 HOU 9 DEN 20
  5. 5 HOU 10 DEN 24
  6. 6 HOU 10 DEN 26
  7. 7 HOU 9 DEN 28
  8. 8 HOU 9 DEN 31
  9. 9 HOU 7 DEN 33
  10. 10 HOU 3 DEN 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Texans win 5% of them, Broncos 95%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Broncos by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Texans by 17+0.1%
Texans by 9–160.9%
Texans by 1–83.7%
Level after regulation0.8%
Broncos by 1–810.3%
Broncos by 9–1621.4%
Broncos by 17+62.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.7 points to the Texans: the final margin was Broncos by 7, without the luck Broncos by 9.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. McManus, 20 yds made · 99% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 40 yds made · 87% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 44 yds made · 81% expected
  • B. McManus, 24 yds made · 99% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 24 yds made · 97% expected
  • B. McManus, 50 yds made · 71% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Texans 8 for 94 yards, Broncos 13 for 100 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:43 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Broncos, 10 yards +1% HOU +0.9 pts
Q1 12:59 Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans, 10 yards +2% HOU +0.5 pts
Q1 7:09 Offensive Holding on the Broncos (Melvin Gordon), 10 yards +2% HOU +0.9 pts
Q1 5:53 Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans, 42 yards +10% DEN +3.6 pts
Q1 2:28 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% HOU +0.6 pts
Q1 1:39 Defensive Offside on the Texans (Ogbonnia Okoronkwo), 4 yards · pre-snap +4% DEN +1.4 pts
Q1 1:06 Defensive Holding on the Texans (Desmond King), 6 yards +2% DEN +0.6 pts
Q2 9:05 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards, wiping out the play +9% DEN +2.5 pts
Q2 4:58 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DEN +0.4 pts
Q2 3:25 Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Kevin Pierre-Louis), 12 yards 0% HOU +0.4 pts
Q2 3:19 Unnecessary Roughness on the Broncos (Courtland Sutton), 15 yards +5% HOU +1.2 pts
Q2 2:55 False Start on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% HOU +0.1 pts
Q2 0:23 Delay of Game on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% HOU +1.1 pts
Q3 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Broncos, 10 yards +3% HOU +1.3 pts
Q3 9:48 Face Mask on the Broncos (Dre'Mont Jones), 5 yards +1% HOU +0.7 pts
Q3 6:04 False Start on the Broncos (Javonte Williams), 5 yards · pre-snap +6% HOU +0.6 pts
Q3 3:24 Delay of Game on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% HOU +1.2 pts
Q3 0:58 Chop Block on the Broncos (Melvin Gordon), 15 yards, wiping out the play +10% HOU +2.2 pts
Q4 11:46 Illegal Contact on the Broncos, 5 yards, wiping out the play +1% HOU +0.2 pts
Q4 7:38 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Texans (Jerry Hughes), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DEN +0.4 pts
Q4 1:16 False Start on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% HOU +0.4 pts

Texans penalties, every game · Broncos penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Broncos’ chance of winning

As low as 34% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Broncos were ahead in it, below while the Texans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 5:53 Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans, 42 yardsJudgment calls +10% DEN DEN: Field goal
2 Q2 9:05 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +9% DEN DEN: Punt
3 Q2 2:00 The Broncos converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +9% DEN DEN: Field goal
4 Q3 6:35 The Broncos converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected +9% DEN DEN: Punt
5 Q3 0:58 Chop Block on the Broncos (Melvin Gordon), 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 1 flag in 1595 snaps before, position avg 1 per 821 +10% HOU HOU: Punt
6 Q4 15:00 The Broncos converted 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +13% DEN DEN: Touchdown
7 Q4 2:38 The Texans fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +11% HOU HOU: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 1:31 B. Cooks dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 13 catchable balls before this +27% DEN HOU: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Justin Simmons (DEN FS), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Tim Patrick (DEN WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Quinn Meinerz (DEN G), out · 0.5 pts
  • Michael Ojemudia (DEN CB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Justin Britt (HOU C), out · 0.5 pts
  • Tavierre Thomas (HOU CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Demone Harris (HOU DE), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Texans 8% · Broncos 92%

Final margin
Broncos by 7
Luck in points
2.7 for the Texans
Luck-adjusted margin
Broncos by 9.7
Replay with same day's form
Texans 5% · Broncos 95% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2022 games · Texans · Broncos

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