luckadjusted

Week 2 2022 · September 18, 2022

Colts at Jaguars, Week 2 2022: who deserved to win?

The Jaguars beat the Colts 24–0, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Jaguars win 10 of 10. The Colts had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 1.6 points to the Colts.

An off day for the Colts: their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Jaguars they would win 46% of the time; with this day’s form, 1%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Colts were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 11:41 left): the Colts were stopped on 3rd & 10, worth 14 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

Final

Indianapolis Colts 0
Jacksonville Jaguars 24

September 18, 2022 · TIAA Bank Stadium · Closing line: Colts −3

Luck index +1 Jaguars about even · −1 Colts

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Colts win 0, Jaguars win 10.

  1. 1 IND 10 JAX 13
  2. 2 IND 21 JAX 28
  3. 3 IND 6 JAX 16
  4. 4 IND 7 JAX 21
  5. 5 IND 3 JAX 20
  6. 6 IND 7 JAX 26
  7. 7 IND 7 JAX 29
  8. 8 IND 7 JAX 32
  9. 9 IND 7 JAX 36
  10. 10 IND 0 JAX 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Colts

Their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Jaguars they would win 46% of the time; with this day’s form, 1%.

44 points apart for the Colts: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Colts offenseEPA per play gained −0.28 +0.13 worse by 0.40
Colts defenseEPA per play allowed +0.25 +0.10 worse by 0.14
Jaguars offenseEPA per play gained +0.25 +0.06 better by 0.19
Jaguars defenseEPA per play allowed −0.28 +0.17 better by 0.44

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Colts win 1% of them, Jaguars 99%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jaguars by 24.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Colts by 17+0.1%
Colts by 9–160.2%
Colts by 1–81.1%
Level after regulation0.7%
Jaguars by 1–84.3%
Jaguars by 9–1613.0%
Jaguars by 17+80.7%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Jaguars by 24. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Jaguars by 17.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

When it happened

Jaguars’ chance of winning

As low as 49% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jaguars were ahead in it, below while the Colts were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:05 The Colts converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +6% IND IND: Turnover
2 Q1 12:26 N. Hines dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 8 catchable balls before this +4% JAX IND: Turnover
3 Q1 11:41 The Colts were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expectedThe Colts threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +14% JAX IND: Punt
4 Q1 10:19 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +5% JAX JAX: Touchdown
5 Q1 8:05 The Jaguars converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +10% JAX JAX: Touchdown
6 Q1 2:27 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +6% JAX JAX: Touchdown
7 Q1 1:39 The Colts fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +4% IND IND: Punt
8 Q2 12:21 The Colts were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +4% JAX IND: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Shaquille Leonard (IND LB), out · 0.8 pts
  • Rigoberto Sanchez (IND P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Colts 0% · Jaguars 100%

Final margin
Jaguars by 24
Luck in points
6.3 for the Jaguars
Luck-adjusted margin
Jaguars by 17.7
Replay with same day's form
Colts 1% · Jaguars 99% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2022 games · Colts · Jaguars

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