luckadjusted

2022 season · final

Jacksonville Jaguars, 2022: game by game

The Jaguars went 9–8 in 2022; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 9.7 wins. Luck cost them 0.7: the 13th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 4–6.

Playoffs: 1–1, replay wins 0.7.

Every game

How often the Jaguars win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 @ Commanders L 22–28 54% −54
Week 2 vs Colts W 24–0 99% +1
Week 3 @ Chargers W 38–10 86% +14
Week 4 @ Eagles L 21–29 3% −3
Week 5 vs Texans L 6–13 69% −69
Week 6 @ Colts L 27–34 75% −75
Week 7 vs Giants L 17–23 21% −21
Week 8 vs Broncos L 17–21 63% −63
Week 9 vs Raiders W 27–20 90% +10
Week 10 @ Chiefs L 17–27 6% −6
Week 12 vs Ravens W 28–27 20% +80
Week 13 @ Lions L 14–40 10% −10
Week 14 @ Titans W 36–22 93% +7
Week 15 vs Cowboys W 40–34 36% +64
Week 16 @ Jets W 19–3 92% +8
Week 17 @ Texans W 31–3 83% +17
Week 18 vs Titans W 20–16 73% +27
Wild Card vs Chargers W 31–30 67% +33
Divisional round @ Chiefs L 20–27 5% −5

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Jaguars’ favor.

KindPointsPer game
Injuries+23.5+1.38
Judgment calls+8.9+0.53
Rest−0.6−0.03
3rd & 4th downs−0.7−0.04
Fumble bounces−3.1−0.19
Drops−9.7−0.57
Kicks−16.0−0.94