2022 season · final
Jacksonville Jaguars, 2022: game by game
The Jaguars went 9–8 in 2022; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 10.0 wins. Luck cost them 1.0: the 13th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 4–6.
Playoffs: 1–1, replay wins 0.8.
Every game
How often the Jaguars win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Commanders | L 22–28 | 52% | −52 |
| Week 2 | vs Colts | W 24–0 | 97% | +3 |
| Week 3 | @ Chargers | W 38–10 | 85% | +15 |
| Week 4 | @ Eagles | L 21–29 | 3% | −3 |
| Week 5 | vs Texans | L 6–13 | 72% | −72 |
| Week 6 | @ Colts | L 27–34 | 86% | −86 |
| Week 7 | vs Giants | L 17–23 | 21% | −21 |
| Week 8 | vs Broncos | L 17–21 | 64% | −64 |
| Week 9 | vs Raiders | W 27–20 | 95% | +5 |
| Week 10 | @ Chiefs | L 17–27 | 15% | −15 |
| Week 12 | vs Ravens | W 28–27 | 21% | +79 |
| Week 13 | @ Lions | L 14–40 | 8% | −8 |
| Week 14 | @ Titans | W 36–22 | 92% | +8 |
| Week 15 | vs Cowboys | W 40–34 | 36% | +64 |
| Week 16 | @ Jets | W 19–3 | 93% | +7 |
| Week 17 | @ Texans | W 31–3 | 84% | +16 |
| Week 18 | vs Titans | W 20–16 | 74% | +26 |
| Wild Card | vs Chargers | W 31–30 | 75% | +25 |
| Divisional round | @ Chiefs | L 20–27 | 6% | −6 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Jaguars’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Injuries | +0.46 | +17.5 |
| Judgment calls | +0.09 | +3.5 |
| Kicks | −0.09 | −17.3 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.18 | −1.3 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.19 | −4.1 |
| Drops | −0.64 | −11.8 |