Wild Card 2022 · January 14, 2023
Chargers at Jaguars, Wild Card 2022: who deserved to win?
The Jaguars beat the Chargers 31–30, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10.
An off day for the Chargers: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Jaguars they would win 60% of the time; with this day’s form, 25%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Chargers were 56% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:28 left): the Jaguars converted 4th & 1, worth 13 points of win probability to the Jaguars.
Final
 Los Angeles Chargers | 30 |
|---|---|
 Jacksonville Jaguars | 31 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +25 Jaguars about even · −25 Chargers
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Chargers win 2, Jaguars win 8.
- 1 LAC 37 JAX 22
- 2 LAC 15 JAX 11
- 3 LAC 9 JAX 10
- 4 LAC 27 JAX 31
- 5 LAC 20 JAX 26
- 6 LAC 19 JAX 29
- 7 LAC 13 JAX 25
- 8 LAC 16 JAX 31
- 9 LAC 10 JAX 30
- 10 LAC 10 JAX 41
Your call
Did the Jaguars earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Chargers
Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Jaguars they would win 60% of the time; with this day’s form, 25%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
35 points apart for the Chargers: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chargers offenseEPA per play gained | +0.31 | +0.12 | better by 0.19 |
| Chargers defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.23 | +0.12 | worse by 0.11 |
| Jaguars offenseEPA per play gained | +0.23 | +0.11 | better by 0.12 |
| Jaguars defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.31 | +0.14 | worse by 0.18 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Chargers win 25% of them, Jaguars 75%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jaguars by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Chargers by 17+ | 3.4% |
| Chargers by 9–16 | 7.3% |
| Chargers by 1–8 | 14.1% |
| Level after regulation | 3.8% |
| Jaguars by 1–8 | 24.4% |
| Jaguars by 9–16 | 20.9% |
| Jaguars by 17+ | 26.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- C. Dicker, 22 yds made · 99% expected
- C. Dicker, 23 yds made · 98% expected
- C. Dicker, 50 yds made · 67% expected
- C. Dicker, 40 yds missed · 87% expected
- R. Patterson, 36 yds made · 91% expected
Penalties: Chargers 7 for 42 yards, Jaguars 3 for 30 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 0:44 | Offensive Holding on the Jaguars (Adam Gotsis), 10 yards | +2% LAC +0.9 pts |
| Q2 8:23 | False Start on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% JAX +0.7 pts |
| Q3 7:55 | Defensive Offside on the Chargers (Joey Bosa), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +4% JAX +1.1 pts |
| Q3 5:26 | Delay of Game on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% LAC +1.6 pts |
| Q3 0:44 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Chargers (Joey Bosa), 15 yards | +1% LAC +0.5 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | False Start on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% JAX +0.7 pts |
| Q4 13:46 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Jaguars, 15 yards | +5% LAC +1.8 pts |
| Q4 11:58 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Chargers, 5 yards | +1% JAX +0.7 pts |
| Q4 8:00 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Chargers, 6 yards | +2% JAX +1.2 pts |
| Q4 5:30 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Chargers (Joey Bosa), 1 yard | 0% JAX 0.0 pts |
Chargers penalties, every game · Jaguars penalties, every game · All teams, 2022
When it happened
Jaguars’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:23 | The Jaguars threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throws | +6% LAC | JAX: Turnover |
| 2 | Q1 8:22 | The Chargers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +4% LAC | LAC: Field goal |
| 3 | Q4 13:46 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Jaguars, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +5% LAC | LAC: Missed field goal |
| 4 | Q4 8:51 | C. Dicker missed a 40-yard field goalKicks · 87% expected for him | +7% JAX | LAC: Punt |
| 5 | Q4 3:09 | The Jaguars got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throws | +11% JAX | JAX: Field goal |
| 6 | Q4 1:30 | The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected | +9% LAC | JAX: Field goal |
| 7 | Q4 1:28 | The Jaguars converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected | +13% JAX | JAX: Field goal |
| 8 | Q4 0:03 | R. Patterson made a 36-yard field goalKicks · 91% expected for him | +9% JAX | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Cam Robinson (JAX T), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
- Dawuane Smoot (JAX DE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Mike Williams (LAC WR), out · 0.7 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Chargers 33% · Jaguars 67%
- Final margin
- Jaguars by 1
- Luck in points
- 1.5 for the Chargers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Jaguars by 2.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Chargers 25% · Jaguars 75% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Wild Card 2022 games · 
Chargers · 
Jaguars
More from Wild Card 2022
- Seahawks at 49ers SF 41–23 · replay 83% for the winner
- Dolphins at Bills BUF 34–31 · replay 94% for the winner
- Giants at Vikings NYG 31–24 · replay 68% for the winner
- Ravens at Bengals CIN 24–17 · replay 57% for the winner
- Cowboys at Buccaneers DAL 31–14 · replay 98% for the winner