luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Wild Card 2022 · January 15, 2023

Giants at Vikings, Wild Card 2022: who deserved to win?

The Giants beat the Vikings 31–24, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10. The Vikings had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 10 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Before kickoff the Vikings were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 4:21 left): the Vikings fumbled and recovered it themselves, worth 10 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Final

New York Giants 31
Minnesota Vikings 24

January 15, 2023 · U.S. Bank Stadium · Closing line: Vikings −2.5

Luck index +32 Giants lucky · −32 Vikings

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Giants win 7, Vikings win 3.

  1. 1 NYG 34 MIN 10
  2. 2 NYG 23 MIN 6
  3. 3 NYG 23 MIN 10
  4. 4 NYG 23 MIN 13
  5. 5 NYG 30 MIN 23
  6. 6 NYG 20 MIN 16
  7. 7 NYG 30 MIN 28
  8. 8 NYG 24 MIN 27
  9. 9 NYG 17 MIN 24
  10. 10 NYG 21 MIN 36

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Giants win 68% of them, Vikings 32%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Giants by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Giants by 17+16.3%
Giants by 9–1621.3%
Giants by 1–827.9%
Level after regulation2.3%
Vikings by 1–819.1%
Vikings by 9–168.9%
Vikings by 17+4.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.1 points to the Vikings: the final margin was Giants by 7, without the luck Giants by 10.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Gano, 25 yds made · 100% expected
  • G. Joseph, 38 yds made · 91% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Giants 5 for 45 yards, Vikings 3 for 12 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:57 Encroachment on the Giants (Dexter Lawrence), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MIN +0.5 pts
Q1 8:23 Offensive Holding on the Giants, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% MIN +2.4 pts
Q2 4:21 Illegal Shift on the Giants, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +3% MIN +1.9 pts
Q2 0:45 Offensive Holding on the Giants (Carter Coughlin), 10 yards +4% MIN +0.9 pts
Q4 12:41 False Start on the Vikings, 4 yards · pre-snap +4% NYG +1.2 pts
Q4 11:16 Illegal Contact on the Vikings, 5 yards +1% NYG +0.3 pts
Q4 7:57 Defensive Holding on the Vikings (Patrick Peterson), 3 yards +1% NYG +0.4 pts
Q4 2:34 Roughing the Passer on the Giants (Dexter Lawrence), 15 yards +1% MIN +0.9 pts

Giants penalties, every game · Vikings penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Vikings’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 73%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Vikings were ahead in it, below while the Giants were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:23 Offensive Holding on the Giants, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +5% MIN MIN: Punt
2 Q2 14:30 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +5% NYG MIN: Punt
3 Q2 2:36 The Vikings converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +6% MIN MIN: Touchdown
4 Q3 9:44 The Vikings converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +6% MIN MIN: Touchdown
5 Q3 4:21 The Vikings fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% MIN MIN: Field goal
6 Q3 0:32 The Vikings converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected +9% MIN MIN: Field goal
7 Q4 8:38 The Giants converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +7% NYG NYG: Touchdown
8 Q4 3:07 D. Slayton dropped a catchable passDrops · 5 drops on 63 catchable balls before this +8% MIN NYG: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Brian O'Neill (MIN T), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Rodarius Williams (NYG CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Jack Anderson (NYG G), out · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Giants 99% · Vikings 1%

Final margin
Giants by 7
Luck in points
3.1 for the Vikings
Luck-adjusted margin
Giants by 10.1
Replay with same day's form
Giants 68% · Vikings 32% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Wild Card 2022 games · Giants · Vikings

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