luckadjusted

Wild Card 2022 · January 15, 2023

Giants at Vikings, Wild Card 2022: who deserved to win?

The Giants beat the Vikings 31–24, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Giants win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 1.8 points to the Giants.

Before kickoff the Vikings were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 0:32 left): the Vikings converted 4th & 2, worth 16 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Final

New York Giants 31
Minnesota Vikings 24

January 15, 2023 · U.S. Bank Stadium · Closing line: Vikings −2.5

Luck index +51 Giants lucky · −51 Vikings

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Giants win 5, Vikings win 5.

  1. 1 NYG 36 MIN 16
  2. 2 NYG 34 MIN 21
  3. 3 NYG 27 MIN 17
  4. 4 NYG 26 MIN 21
  5. 5 NYG 37 MIN 35
  6. 6 NYG 17 MIN 20
  7. 7 NYG 17 MIN 22
  8. 8 NYG 17 MIN 26
  9. 9 NYG 10 MIN 24
  10. 10 NYG 10 MIN 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Giants win 49% of them, Vikings 51%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Giants by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Giants by 17+8.8%
Giants by 9–1614.5%
Giants by 1–823.3%
Level after regulation6.1%
Vikings by 1–824.4%
Vikings by 9–1613.6%
Vikings by 17+9.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Giants by 7. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Giants by 10.8.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Gano, 25 yds made · 100% expected
  • G. Joseph, 38 yds made · 91% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Vikings’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 73%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Vikings were ahead in it, below while the Giants were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 14:30 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +6% NYG MIN: Punt
2 Q2 2:36 The Vikings converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +6% MIN MIN: Touchdown
3 Q3 13:43 The Giants converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +8% NYG NYG: Touchdown
4 Q3 9:44 The Vikings converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +6% MIN MIN: Touchdown
5 Q3 4:21 The Vikings fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +11% MIN MIN: Field goal
6 Q3 0:32 The Vikings converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected +16% MIN MIN: Field goal
7 Q4 8:38 The Giants converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expected +9% NYG NYG: Touchdown
8 Q4 3:07 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 22% expectedD. Slayton dropped a catchable passDrops · 5 drops on 63 catchable balls before this +8% MIN NYG: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Brian O'Neill (MIN T), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Rodarius Williams (NYG CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Jack Anderson (NYG G), out · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Giants 99% · Vikings 1%

Final margin
Giants by 7
Luck in points
3.8 for the Vikings
Luck-adjusted margin
Giants by 10.8
Replay with same day's form
Giants 49% · Vikings 51% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Wild Card 2022 games · Giants · Vikings

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