luckadjusted

2022 season · final

New York Giants, 2022: game by game

The Giants went 9–7–1 in 2022; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 9.2 wins. Luck added 0.3: the 16th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 8–4–1.

Playoffs: 1–1, replay wins 0.6.

Every game

How often the Giants win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 @ Titans W 21–20 47% +53
Week 2 vs Panthers W 19–16 74% +26
Week 3 vs Cowboys L 16–23 4% −4
Week 4 vs Bears W 20–12 88% +12
Week 5 @ Packers W 27–22 69% +31
Week 6 vs Ravens W 24–20 33% +67
Week 7 @ Jaguars W 23–17 79% +21
Week 8 @ Seahawks L 13–27 18% −18
Week 10 vs Texans W 24–16 90% +10
Week 11 vs Lions L 18–31 64% −64
Week 12 @ Cowboys L 20–28 35% −35
Week 13 vs Commanders T 20–20 91% −41
Week 14 vs Eagles L 22–48 7% −7
Week 15 @ Commanders W 20–12 47% +53
Week 16 @ Vikings L 24–27 65% −65
Week 17 vs Colts W 38–10 89% +11
Week 18 @ Eagles L 16–22 14% −14
Wild Card @ Vikings W 31–24 49% +51
Divisional round @ Eagles L 7–38 15% −15

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Giants’ favor.

KindPointsPer game
Kicks+7.1+0.42
Drops+3.6+0.21
3rd & 4th downs+1.1+0.07
Judgment calls−0.2−0.01
Fumble bounces−4.7−0.28
Injuries−7.7−0.46