luckadjusted

Week 5 2022 · October 9, 2022

Giants vs Packers, Week 5 2022: who deserved to win?

The Giants beat the Packers 27–22 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Packers had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 3.1 points to the Packers.

An off day for the Packers: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Giants they would win 67% of the time; with this day’s form, 31%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Packers were 74% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:05 left): the Packers were stopped on 4th & 1, worth 17 points of win probability to the Giants.

Final

New York Giants 27
Green Bay Packers 22

October 9, 2022 · Tottenham Stadium · Closing line: Packers −8.5

Luck index +31 Giants lucky · −31 Packers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Giants win 7, Packers win 3.

  1. 1 NYG 30 GB 7
  2. 2 NYG 26 GB 10
  3. 3 NYG 27 GB 14
  4. 4 NYG 22 GB 13
  5. 5 NYG 17 GB 10
  6. 6 NYG 24 GB 20
  7. 7 NYG 26 GB 24
  8. 8 NYG 20 GB 23
  9. 9 NYG 17 GB 24
  10. 10 NYG 17 GB 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Packers

Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Giants they would win 67% of the time; with this day’s form, 31%.

36 points apart for the Packers: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Giants offenseEPA per play gained +0.32 +0.02 better by 0.30
Giants defenseEPA per play allowed +0.07 +0.11 better by 0.05
Packers offenseEPA per play gained +0.07 +0.15 worse by 0.09
Packers defenseEPA per play allowed +0.32 +0.09 worse by 0.23

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Giants win 69% of them, Packers 31%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Giants by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Giants by 17+20.4%
Giants by 9–1622.1%
Giants by 1–826.2%
Level after regulation4.1%
Packers by 1–816.1%
Packers by 9–167.2%
Packers by 17+3.9%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Giants by 5. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Giants by 9.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Crosby, 46 yds made · 80% expected
  • G. Gano, 48 yds made · 78% expected
  • M. Crosby, 48 yds made · 76% expected
  • G. Gano, 37 yds made · 92% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Packers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 87%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Packers were ahead in it, below while the Giants were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:16 The Packers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +12% GB GB: Field goal
2 Q1 3:33 Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Xavier McKinney), 33 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 1646 snaps before, position avg 1 per 548 +7% GB GB: Touchdown
3 Q1 0:17 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expectedS. Barkley dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 17 catchable balls before this +7% GB NYG: Field goal
4 Q2 4:08 The Giants converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +7% NYG NYG: Touchdown
5 Q3 4:09 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +5% NYG GB: Punt
6 Q4 10:08 The Packers got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 46% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +8% GB GB: Punt
7 Q4 3:23 A. Lazard dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 17 catchable balls before this +9% NYG GB: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 1:05 The Packers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 67% expected +17% NYG GB: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Sammy Watkins (GB WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Krys Barnes (GB LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Kenny Golladay (NYG WR), out · 0.7 pts
  • Leonard Williams (NYG DT), out · 0.6 pts
  • Sterling Shepard (NYG WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Azeez Ojulari (NYG LB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Giants 86% · Packers 14%

Final margin
Giants by 5
Luck in points
4.4 for the Packers
Luck-adjusted margin
Giants by 9.4
Replay with same day's form
Giants 69% · Packers 31% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2022 games · Giants · Packers

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