Week 5 2022 · October 9, 2022
Giants vs Packers, Week 5 2022: who deserved to win?
The Giants beat the Packers 27–22, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.
An off day for the Packers: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Giants they would win 67% of the time; with this day’s form, 32%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Packers were 74% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:05 left): the Packers were stopped on 4th & 1, worth 17 points of win probability to the Giants.
Final
 New York Giants | 27 |
|---|---|
 Green Bay Packers | 22 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +32 Giants lucky · −32 Packers
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Giants win 7, Packers win 3.
- 1 NYG 33 GB 10
- 2 NYG 27 GB 10
- 3 NYG 27 GB 14
- 4 NYG 20 GB 10
- 5 NYG 31 GB 24
- 6 NYG 21 GB 17
- 7 NYG 12 GB 10
- 8 NYG 14 GB 17
- 9 NYG 10 GB 17
- 10 NYG 9 GB 23
Your call
Did the Giants earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Packers
Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Giants they would win 67% of the time; with this day’s form, 32%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
35 points apart for the Packers: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Giants offenseEPA per play gained | +0.32 | +0.02 | better by 0.30 |
| Giants defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.07 | +0.11 | better by 0.05 |
| Packers offenseEPA per play gained | +0.07 | +0.15 | worse by 0.09 |
| Packers defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.32 | +0.09 | worse by 0.23 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Giants win 68% of them, Packers 32%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Giants by 5.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Giants by 17+ | 20.3% |
| Giants by 9–16 | 21.3% |
| Giants by 1–8 | 25.9% |
| Level after regulation | 4.7% |
| Packers by 1–8 | 16.3% |
| Packers by 9–16 | 7.9% |
| Packers by 17+ | 3.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- M. Crosby, 46 yds made · 80% expected
- G. Gano, 48 yds made · 78% expected
- M. Crosby, 48 yds made · 76% expected
- G. Gano, 37 yds made · 92% expected
Penalties: Giants 6 for 63 yards, Packers 7 for 37 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:10 | Delay of Game on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% NYG +0.5 pts |
| Q1 6:26 | Delay of Game on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% GB +0.8 pts |
| Q1 3:33 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Xavier McKinney), 33 yards | +7% GB +3.5 pts |
| Q1 1:25 | Offensive Holding on the Giants, 10 yards | +2% GB +0.9 pts |
| Q2 7:19 | Defensive Holding on the Packers (Rasul Douglas), 5 yards, wiping out the play | +2% NYG +0.9 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | Defensive Holding on the Packers (Darnell Savage Jr.), 5 yards, wiping out the play | +3% NYG +1.3 pts |
| Q3 8:58 | False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% GB +0.6 pts |
| Q3 7:57 | Offensive Holding on the Packers (Isaiah McDuffie), 10 yards | +2% NYG +0.8 pts |
| Q3 6:19 | Illegal Contact on the Giants, 5 yards | +3% GB +0.7 pts |
| Q3 2:11 | Defensive Holding on the Packers (Rasul Douglas), 5 yards | +1% NYG +0.7 pts |
| Q4 7:09 | Illegal Formation on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% GB +1.1 pts |
| Q4 6:40 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Packers (Rasul Douglas), 2 yards | +3% NYG +0.5 pts |
| Q4 0:07 | False Start on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NYG +0.1 pts |
Giants penalties, every game · Packers penalties, every game · All teams, 2022
When it happened
Packers’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 87%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:16 | The Packers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +7% GB | GB: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 11:13 | The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +5% NYG | GB: Field goal |
| 3 | Q1 3:33 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Xavier McKinney), 33 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 1646 snaps before, position avg 1 per 548 | +7% GB | GB: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 0:17 | S. Barkley dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 17 catchable balls before this | +6% GB | NYG: Field goal |
| 5 | Q2 4:08 | The Giants converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +7% NYG | NYG: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 10:08 | The Packers got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throws | +7% GB | GB: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 3:23 | A. Lazard dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 17 catchable balls before this | +8% NYG | GB: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q4 1:05 | The Packers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected | +17% NYG | GB: End of game |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Sammy Watkins (GB WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Krys Barnes (GB LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Kenny Golladay (NYG WR), out · 0.7 pts
- Leonard Williams (NYG DT), out · 0.6 pts
- Sterling Shepard (NYG WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Azeez Ojulari (NYG LB), out · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Giants 93% · Packers 7%
- Final margin
- Giants by 5
- Luck in points
- 4.5 for the Packers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Giants by 9.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Giants 68% · Packers 32% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2022 games · 
Giants · 
Packers
More from Week 5 2022
- Colts at Broncos IND 12–9 · replay 3% for the winner
- Falcons at Buccaneers TB 21–15 · replay 66% for the winner
- Bears at Vikings MIN 29–22 · replay 91% for the winner
- Lions at Patriots NE 29–0 · replay 87% for the winner
- Texans at Jaguars HOU 13–6 · replay 28% for the winner
- Chargers at Browns LAC 30–28 · replay 53% for the winner
- Dolphins at Jets NYJ 40–17 · replay 89% for the winner
- Steelers at Bills BUF 38–3 · replay 98% for the winner
- Seahawks at Saints NO 39–32 · replay 47% for the winner
- Titans at Commanders TEN 21–17 · replay 50% for the winner
- 49ers at Panthers SF 37–15 · replay 84% for the winner
- Cowboys at Rams DAL 22–10 · replay 35% for the winner
- Eagles at Cardinals PHI 20–17 · replay 41% for the winner
- Bengals at Ravens BAL 19–17 · replay 38% for the winner
- Raiders at Chiefs KC 30–29 · replay 77% for the winner