luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 5 2022 · October 9, 2022

Cowboys at Rams, Week 5 2022: who deserved to win?

The Cowboys beat the Rams 22–10, but the replays lean toward the Rams: they take 6 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 22 points of win probability to the Cowboys.

Before kickoff the Rams were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 13:36 left): Return touchdown by the Cowboys, worth 37 points of win probability to the Cowboys.

Final

Dallas Cowboys 22
Los Angeles Rams 10

October 9, 2022 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Rams −5.5

Luck index +65 Cowboys very lucky · −65 Rams

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cowboys win 4, Rams win 6.

  1. 1 DAL 23 LA 3
  2. 2 DAL 26 LA 14
  3. 3 DAL 17 LA 10
  4. 4 DAL 30 LA 28
  5. 5 DAL 7 LA 9
  6. 6 DAL 12 LA 17
  7. 7 DAL 10 LA 20
  8. 8 DAL 18 LA 31
  9. 9 DAL 20 LA 36
  10. 10 DAL 6 LA 28

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cowboys win 35% of them, Rams 65%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 12.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cowboys by 17+5.3%
Cowboys by 9–169.4%
Cowboys by 1–819.1%
Level after regulation2.9%
Rams by 1–824.8%
Rams by 9–1620.4%
Rams by 17+18.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.0 points to the Cowboys: the final margin was Cowboys by 12, without the luck Cowboys by 8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Maher, 33 yds made · 94% expected
  • M. Gay, 29 yds made · 97% expected
  • B. Maher, 40 yds made · 88% expected
  • M. Gay, 51 yds missed · 72% expected
  • B. Maher, 36 yds made · 92% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Cowboys 5 for 42 yards, Rams 3 for 25 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 7:23 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Cowboys (Micah Parsons), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% LA +1.2 pts
Q1 2:09 Unnecessary Roughness on the Rams, 5 yards +1% DAL +0.5 pts
Q2 5:22 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards +4% LA +1.1 pts
Q3 1:35 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 7 yards, wiping out the play +5% LA +2.0 pts
Q3 0:23 Offensive Holding on the Rams, 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% DAL +1.9 pts
Q4 4:41 Roughing the Passer on the Cowboys (Dante Fowler), 15 yards +3% LA +1.2 pts
Q4 4:10 Offensive Holding on the Rams, 10 yards +2% DAL +1.5 pts
Q4 4:06 Encroachment on the Cowboys (Trysten Hill), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LA +0.6 pts

Cowboys penalties, every game · Rams penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Rams’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 56%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Rams were ahead in it, below while the Cowboys were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:36 The Rams fumbled and the Cowboys recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the CowboysSpecial teams +37% DAL LA: Punt
2 Q1 9:42 Blocked punt by the CowboysSpecial teams +10% DAL DAL: Field goal
3 Q2 2:29 The Rams converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +8% LA LA: Punt
4 Q2 0:34 The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +5% DAL LA: Punt
5 Q3 13:10 The Cowboys fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% DAL DAL: Field goal
6 Q3 11:48 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +8% DAL DAL: Field goal
7 Q4 13:38 M. Gay missed a 51-yard field goalKicks · 72% expected for him, 22 of 30 from 45+ before +5% DAL LA: Punt
8 Q4 3:38 The Rams were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · defenses pick off well under 1% of clean throws +5% DAL LA: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Van Jefferson (LA WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Troy Hill (LA CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Taylor Rapp (LA FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Brian Allen (LA C), out · 0.3 pts
  • David Long (LA CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Jordan Fuller (LA SS), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Travin Howard (LA LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Dak Prescott (DAL QB), out, replaced by c.rush · 4.5 pts
  • Tyron Smith (DAL T), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Jake McQuaide (DAL LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cowboys 80% · Rams 20%

Final margin
Cowboys by 12
Luck in points
4.0 for the Cowboys
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 8.0
Replay with same day's form
Cowboys 35% · Rams 65% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2022 games · Cowboys · Rams

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