luckadjusted

Week 5 2022 · October 9, 2022

Cowboys at Rams, Week 5 2022: who deserved to win?

The Cowboys beat the Rams 22–10, but the Rams played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 6.3 points to the Cowboys.

Before kickoff the Rams were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 13:36 left): the Rams were stopped on 3rd & 1, worth 61 points of win probability to the Cowboys.

Final

Dallas Cowboys 22
Los Angeles Rams 10

October 9, 2022 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Rams −5.5

Luck index +68 Cowboys very lucky · −68 Rams

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cowboys win 3, Rams win 7.

  1. 1 DAL 27 LA 9
  2. 2 DAL 16 LA 7
  3. 3 DAL 6 LA 3
  4. 4 DAL 13 LA 15
  5. 5 DAL 16 LA 21
  6. 6 DAL 9 LA 17
  7. 7 DAL 24 LA 36
  8. 8 DAL 12 LA 27
  9. 9 DAL 14 LA 34
  10. 10 DAL 3 LA 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cowboys win 32% of them, Rams 68%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 12.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cowboys by 17+4.8%
Cowboys by 9–169.4%
Cowboys by 1–817.4%
Level after regulation2.5%
Rams by 1–825.3%
Rams by 9–1619.7%
Rams by 17+20.9%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Cowboys by 12. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Cowboys by 9.5.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Maher, 33 yds made · 94% expected
  • M. Gay, 29 yds made · 97% expected
  • B. Maher, 40 yds made · 88% expected
  • M. Gay, 51 yds missed · 74% expected
  • B. Maher, 36 yds made · 92% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Rams’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 56%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Rams were ahead in it, below while the Cowboys were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:36 The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expectedThe Rams fumbled and the Cowboys recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the CowboysSpecial teams +61% DAL LA: Punt
2 Q1 9:42 Blocked punt by the CowboysSpecial teams +10% DAL DAL: Field goal
3 Q2 9:42 The Rams converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expected +20% LA LA: Touchdown
4 Q2 2:29 The Rams converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +8% LA LA: Punt
5 Q3 13:10 The Cowboys fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% DAL DAL: Field goal
6 Q3 11:48 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 19% expected +10% DAL DAL: Field goal
7 Q3 3:29 The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +6% DAL LA: Punt
8 Q4 3:38 The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 22% expectedThe Rams were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +9% DAL LA: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Van Jefferson (LA WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Troy Hill (LA CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Taylor Rapp (LA FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Brian Allen (LA C), out · 0.3 pts
  • David Long (LA CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Jordan Fuller (LA SS), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Travin Howard (LA LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Dak Prescott (DAL QB), out, replaced by c.rush · 4.5 pts
  • Tyron Smith (DAL T), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Jake McQuaide (DAL LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cowboys 83% · Rams 17%

Final margin
Cowboys by 12
Luck in points
2.5 for the Cowboys
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 9.5
Replay with same day's form
Cowboys 32% · Rams 68% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2022 games · Cowboys · Rams

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