luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 5 2022 · October 9, 2022

Chargers at Browns, Week 5 2022: who deserved to win?

The Chargers beat the Browns 30–28, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Chargers win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 46 points of win probability to the Chargers.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:16 left): C. York missed a 54-yard field goal, worth 37 points of win probability to the Chargers.

Final

Los Angeles Chargers 30
Cleveland Browns 28

October 9, 2022 · FirstEnergy Stadium · Closing line: Chargers −1

Luck index +47 Chargers lucky · −47 Browns

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Chargers win 5, Browns win 5.

  1. 1 LAC 43 CLE 19
  2. 2 LAC 38 CLE 24
  3. 3 LAC 34 CLE 24
  4. 4 LAC 23 CLE 17
  5. 5 LAC 26 CLE 24
  6. 6 LAC 33 CLE 35
  7. 7 LAC 17 CLE 22
  8. 8 LAC 17 CLE 26
  9. 9 LAC 20 CLE 34
  10. 10 LAC 17 CLE 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Chargers win 53% of them, Browns 47%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chargers by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Chargers by 17+12.6%
Chargers by 9–1614.2%
Chargers by 1–822.0%
Level after regulation6.0%
Browns by 1–822.3%
Browns by 9–1613.3%
Browns by 17+9.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.2 points to the Chargers: the final margin was Chargers by 2, without the luck Browns by 4.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • T. Bertolet, 28 yds made · 97% expected
  • C. York, 45 yds missed · 81% expected
  • T. Bertolet, 25 yds made · 98% expected
  • T. Bertolet, 27 yds made · 97% expected
  • C. York, 54 yds missed · 64% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Chargers 4 for 17 yards, Browns 6 for 65 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:48 Unnecessary Roughness on the Browns (Grant Delpit), 15 yards +3% LAC +1.8 pts
Q1 2:34 False Start on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CLE +0.7 pts
Q1 0:41 Face Mask on the Browns, 15 yards +4% LAC +1.8 pts
Q2 6:48 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Browns (John Johnson), 10 yards +3% LAC +1.3 pts
Q2 3:03 Roughing the Passer on the Chargers (Sebastian Joseph-Day), 2 yards +5% CLE +1.5 pts
Q2 1:06 Illegal Formation on the Browns, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +6% LAC +1.8 pts
Q3 14:24 Defensive Holding on the Browns (Denzel Ward), 5 yards +2% LAC +0.5 pts
Q3 13:03 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Chargers, 5 yards, wiping out the play +5% CLE +1.3 pts
Q3 10:28 Face Mask on the Browns (Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah), 15 yards +4% LAC +1.4 pts
Q3 6:58 False Start on the Chargers (Donald Parham), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CLE +0.7 pts

Chargers penalties, every game · Browns penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Browns’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 85%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Browns were ahead in it, below while the Chargers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 12:36 The Chargers converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +8% LAC LAC: Touchdown
2 Q3 8:55 The Browns were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected +10% LAC CLE: Touchdown
3 Q3 1:11 The Browns converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +8% CLE CLE: Touchdown
4 Q4 6:53 The Browns converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +12% CLE CLE: Turnover
5 Q4 5:23 The Browns converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +18% CLE CLE: Turnover
6 Q4 2:55 The Browns threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throws +20% LAC CLE: Missed field goal
7 Q4 1:14 The Chargers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expected +35% CLE LAC: End of game
8 Q4 0:16 C. York missed a 54-yard field goalKicks · 64% expected for him, 2 of 3 from 45+ before +37% LAC –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Greedy Williams (CLE CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Anthony Walker (CLE LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Rashawn Slater (LAC T), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Keenan Allen (LAC WR), out · 0.9 pts
  • Joey Bosa (LAC LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Dustin Hopkins (LAC K), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Chargers 12% · Browns 88%

Final margin
Chargers by 2
Luck in points
6.2 for the Chargers
Luck-adjusted margin
Browns by 4.2
Replay with same day's form
Chargers 53% · Browns 47% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2022 games · Chargers · Browns

More from Week 5 2022