luckadjusted

Week 5 2022 · October 9, 2022

Chargers at Browns, Week 5 2022: who deserved to win?

The Chargers beat the Browns 30–28, but the Browns played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 6.7 points to the Chargers.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:55 left): the Browns were stopped on 3rd & 7, worth 57 points of win probability to the Chargers.

Final

Los Angeles Chargers 30
Cleveland Browns 28

October 9, 2022 · FirstEnergy Stadium · Closing line: Chargers −1

Luck index +66 Chargers very lucky · −66 Browns

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Chargers win 3, Browns win 7.

  1. 1 LAC 31 CLE 14
  2. 2 LAC 28 CLE 20
  3. 3 LAC 27 CLE 24
  4. 4 LAC 34 CLE 36
  5. 5 LAC 30 CLE 34
  6. 6 LAC 16 CLE 22
  7. 7 LAC 10 CLE 19
  8. 8 LAC 21 CLE 33
  9. 9 LAC 20 CLE 37
  10. 10 LAC 16 CLE 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Chargers win 34% of them, Browns 66%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chargers by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Chargers by 17+6.0%
Chargers by 9–1610.1%
Chargers by 1–818.1%
Level after regulation1.9%
Browns by 1–827.4%
Browns by 9–1619.3%
Browns by 17+17.3%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Chargers by 2. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Browns by 5.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • T. Bertolet, 28 yds made · 97% expected
  • C. York, 45 yds missed · 80% expected
  • T. Bertolet, 25 yds made · 98% expected
  • T. Bertolet, 27 yds made · 97% expected
  • C. York, 54 yds missed · 63% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Browns’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 85%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Browns were ahead in it, below while the Chargers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 12:05 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expectedA. Cooper dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 28 catchable balls before this +9% LAC CLE: Punt
2 Q3 12:36 The Chargers converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +9% LAC LAC: Touchdown
3 Q3 8:55 The Browns were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +10% LAC CLE: Touchdown
4 Q4 6:53 The Browns converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +12% CLE CLE: Turnover
5 Q4 5:23 The Browns converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +19% CLE CLE: Turnover
6 Q4 2:55 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 29% expectedThe Browns threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +57% LAC CLE: Missed field goal
7 Q4 1:14 The Chargers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected +35% CLE LAC: End of game
8 Q4 0:16 C. York missed 54-yard field goalKicks · 63% expected for him, 2 of 3 from 45+ before +36% LAC –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Greedy Williams (CLE CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Anthony Walker (CLE LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Rashawn Slater (LAC T), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Keenan Allen (LAC WR), out · 0.9 pts
  • Joey Bosa (LAC LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Dustin Hopkins (LAC K), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Chargers 11% · Browns 89%

Final margin
Chargers by 2
Luck in points
7.4 for the Chargers
Luck-adjusted margin
Browns by 5.4
Replay with same day's form
Chargers 34% · Browns 66% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2022 games · Chargers · Browns

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