luckadjusted

Week 5 2022 · October 9, 2022

Lions at Patriots, Week 5 2022: who deserved to win?

The Patriots beat the Lions 29–0, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Patriots win 9 of 10. The Lions had the bounces: injuries alone were worth 2.7 points to the Lions.

Before kickoff the Patriots were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 3:40 left): Return touchdown by the Patriots, worth 33 points of win probability to the Patriots.

Final

Detroit Lions 0
New England Patriots 29

October 9, 2022 · Gillette Stadium · Closing line: Patriots −3

Luck index +12 Patriots about even · −12 Lions

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Lions win 1, Patriots win 9.

  1. 1 DET 24 NE 17
  2. 2 DET 21 NE 23
  3. 3 DET 16 NE 22
  4. 4 DET 20 NE 27
  5. 5 DET 20 NE 31
  6. 6 DET 21 NE 34
  7. 7 DET 17 NE 33
  8. 8 DET 7 NE 27
  9. 9 DET 3 NE 26
  10. 10 DET 14 NE 44

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Lions win 12% of them, Patriots 88%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Patriots by 29.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Lions by 17+0.6%
Lions by 9–162.3%
Lions by 1–87.1%
Level after regulation1.9%
Patriots by 1–818.4%
Patriots by 9–1622.3%
Patriots by 17+47.3%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Patriots by 29. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Patriots by 15.5.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • N. Folk, 37 yds made · 91% expected
  • N. Folk, 32 yds made · 96% expected
  • N. Folk, 44 yds made · 82% expected
  • N. Folk, 37 yds made · 91% expected
  • N. Folk, 29 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Patriots’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Patriots were ahead in it, below while the Lions were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:18 The Lions were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +5% NE DET: Turnover
2 Q1 5:38 The Lions threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +6% NE DET: Punt
3 Q1 4:20 The Patriots converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +6% NE NE: Field goal
4 Q2 11:07 The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +8% NE DET: Punt
5 Q2 8:00 The Patriots fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% NE NE: Turnover
6 Q2 6:30 The Lions converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +9% DET DET: Opp touchdown
7 Q2 4:27 The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected +8% NE DET: Opp touchdown
8 Q2 3:40 The Lions were stopped on 4th & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expectedThe Lions fumbled and the Patriots recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the PatriotsSpecial teams +33% NE DET: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Mac Jones (NE QB), out, replaced by b.zappe · 4.3 pts
  • Amani Oruwariye (DET CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • D'Andre Swift (DET RB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Tracy Walker (DET FS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Halapoulivaati Vaitai (DET G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Tommy Kraemer (DET G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Charles Harris (DET LB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Lions 4% · Patriots 96%

Final margin
Patriots by 29
Luck in points
13.5 for the Patriots
Luck-adjusted margin
Patriots by 15.5
Replay with same day's form
Lions 12% · Patriots 88% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2022 games · Lions · Patriots

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