luckadjusted

Week 5 2022 · October 9, 2022

Eagles at Cardinals, Week 5 2022: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat the Cardinals 20–17, but the Cardinals played well enough to win it: they take 6 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 4.3 points to the Eagles.

The Eagles won on an off day: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Cardinals they would win 66% of the time; with this day’s form, 35%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Eagles were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:22 left): M. Ammendola missed 43-yard field goal, worth 29 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Final

Philadelphia Eagles 20
Arizona Cardinals 17

October 9, 2022 · State Farm Stadium · Closing line: Eagles −5.5

Luck index +65 Eagles very lucky · −65 Cardinals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Eagles win 4, Cardinals win 6.

  1. 1 PHI 33 ARI 14
  2. 2 PHI 30 ARI 20
  3. 3 PHI 21 ARI 17
  4. 4 PHI 12 ARI 10
  5. 5 PHI 10 ARI 12
  6. 6 PHI 13 ARI 17
  7. 7 PHI 20 ARI 27
  8. 8 PHI 20 ARI 31
  9. 9 PHI 6 ARI 22
  10. 10 PHI 9 ARI 33

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

The Eagles won on an off day

They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Cardinals they would win 66% of the time; with this day’s form, 35%.

31 points apart for the Eagles: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Eagles offenseEPA per play gained +0.14 +0.17 worse by 0.02
Eagles defenseEPA per play allowed +0.15 +0.10 worse by 0.05
Cardinals offenseEPA per play gained +0.15 +0.09 better by 0.06
Cardinals defenseEPA per play allowed +0.14 +0.13 worse by 0.01

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Eagles win 35% of them, Cardinals 65%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Eagles by 17+4.8%
Eagles by 9–1610.0%
Eagles by 1–820.2%
Level after regulation3.5%
Cardinals by 1–831.8%
Cardinals by 9–1616.7%
Cardinals by 17+13.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Eagles by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Eagles by 5.6.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Ammendola, 20 yds made · 98% expected
  • C. Dicker, 42 yds made · 86% expected
  • C. Dicker, 23 yds made · 99% expected
  • M. Ammendola, 43 yds missed · 84% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Cardinals’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 55%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cardinals were ahead in it, below while the Eagles were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:02 The Cardinals were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +8% PHI ARI: Punt
2 Q1 1:39 The Eagles converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +7% PHI PHI: Touchdown
3 Q2 5:33 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +7% ARI ARI: Touchdown
4 Q4 4:28 The Eagles converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +13% PHI PHI: Field goal
5 Q4 2:20 The Eagles converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +7% PHI PHI: Field goal
6 Q4 1:20 False Start on the Cardinals, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +7% PHI PHI: End of game
7 Q4 1:15 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +15% ARI ARI: Missed field goal
8 Q4 0:22 M. Ammendola missed 43-yard field goalKicks · 84% expected for him +29% PHI –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Rodney Hudson (ARI C), out · 0.6 pts
  • Antoine Wesley (ARI WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Max Garcia (ARI C), out · 0.3 pts
  • Matt Prater (ARI K), out · 0.3 pts
  • Jordan Mailata (PHI T), out · 0.8 pts
  • Jake Elliott (PHI K), out · 0.4 pts
  • Avonte Maddox (PHI CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Derek Barnett (PHI DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Eagles 85% · Cardinals 15%

Final margin
Eagles by 3
Luck in points
2.6 for the Cardinals
Luck-adjusted margin
Eagles by 5.6
Replay with same day's form
Eagles 35% · Cardinals 65% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2022 games · Eagles · Cardinals

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