luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 5 2022 · October 9, 2022

Eagles at Cardinals, Week 5 2022: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat the Cardinals 20–17, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Eagles win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 29 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:22 left): M. Ammendola missed a 43-yard field goal, worth 29 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Final

Philadelphia Eagles 20
Arizona Cardinals 17

October 9, 2022 · State Farm Stadium · Closing line: Eagles −5.5

Luck index +59 Eagles lucky · −59 Cardinals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Eagles win 4, Cardinals win 6.

  1. 1 PHI 23 ARI 3
  2. 2 PHI 17 ARI 5
  3. 3 PHI 20 ARI 14
  4. 4 PHI 31 ARI 29
  5. 5 PHI 17 ARI 19
  6. 6 PHI 13 ARI 17
  7. 7 PHI 21 ARI 28
  8. 8 PHI 20 ARI 30
  9. 9 PHI 13 ARI 27
  10. 10 PHI 12 ARI 33

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Eagles win 41% of them, Cardinals 59%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Eagles by 17+5.2%
Eagles by 9–1612.3%
Eagles by 1–820.8%
Level after regulation3.8%
Cardinals by 1–829.5%
Cardinals by 9–1617.0%
Cardinals by 17+11.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.1 points to the Cardinals: the final margin was Eagles by 3, without the luck Eagles by 3.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Ammendola, 20 yds made · 98% expected
  • C. Dicker, 42 yds made · 87% expected
  • C. Dicker, 23 yds made · 98% expected
  • M. Ammendola, 43 yds missed · 85% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Eagles 3 for 30 yards, Cardinals 2 for 15 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 12:27 Offensive Holding on the Eagles (A.J. Brown), 10 yards +2% ARI +0.9 pts
Q3 11:59 Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% ARI +2.1 pts
Q3 9:57 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% PHI +1.9 pts
Q3 2:17 Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards +1% ARI +1.1 pts
Q4 1:20 False Start on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap +7% PHI +0.6 pts

Eagles penalties, every game · Cardinals penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Cardinals’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 55%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cardinals were ahead in it, below while the Eagles were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:02 The Cardinals were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · defenses pick off well under 1% of clean throws +8% PHI ARI: Punt
2 Q1 1:39 The Eagles converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +6% PHI PHI: Touchdown
3 Q3 8:22 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +6% ARI ARI: Punt
4 Q4 4:28 The Eagles converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +13% PHI PHI: Field goal
5 Q4 2:20 The Eagles converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +7% PHI PHI: Field goal
6 Q4 1:20 False Start on the Cardinals, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +7% PHI PHI: End of game
7 Q4 1:15 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +15% ARI ARI: Missed field goal
8 Q4 0:22 M. Ammendola missed a 43-yard field goalKicks · 85% expected for him +29% PHI –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Rodney Hudson (ARI C), out · 0.6 pts
  • Antoine Wesley (ARI WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Max Garcia (ARI C), out · 0.3 pts
  • Matt Prater (ARI K), out · 0.3 pts
  • Jordan Mailata (PHI T), out · 0.8 pts
  • Jake Elliott (PHI K), out · 0.4 pts
  • Avonte Maddox (PHI CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Derek Barnett (PHI DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Eagles 74% · Cardinals 26%

Final margin
Eagles by 3
Luck in points
0.1 for the Cardinals
Luck-adjusted margin
Eagles by 3.1
Replay with same day's form
Eagles 41% · Cardinals 59% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2022 games · Eagles · Cardinals

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