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NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 5 2022 · October 9, 2022

Dolphins at Jets, Week 5 2022: who deserved to win?

The Jets beat the Dolphins 40–17, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Jets win 9 of 10.

An off day for the Dolphins: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Jets they would win 55% of the time; with this day’s form, 11%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Dolphins were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 13:19 left): J. Sanders missed a 54-yard field goal, worth 17 points of win probability to the Jets.

Final

Miami Dolphins 17
New York Jets 40

October 9, 2022 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Dolphins −3

Luck index +11 Jets about even · −11 Dolphins

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Dolphins win 1, Jets win 9.

  1. 1 MIA 31 NYJ 23
  2. 2 MIA 24 NYJ 26
  3. 3 MIA 24 NYJ 30
  4. 4 MIA 27 NYJ 36
  5. 5 MIA 27 NYJ 40
  6. 6 MIA 23 NYJ 38
  7. 7 MIA 20 NYJ 38
  8. 8 MIA 19 NYJ 41
  9. 9 MIA 20 NYJ 46
  10. 10 MIA 7 NYJ 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Dolphins

They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Jets they would win 55% of the time; with this day’s form, 11%.

44 points apart for the Dolphins: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Dolphins offenseEPA per play gained +0.05 +0.11 worse by 0.06
Dolphins defenseEPA per play allowed +0.06 +0.10 better by 0.04
Jets offenseEPA per play gained +0.06 +0.04 better by 0.01
Jets defenseEPA per play allowed +0.05 +0.17 better by 0.12

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Dolphins win 11% of them, Jets 89%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jets by 23.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Dolphins by 17+1.1%
Dolphins by 9–162.7%
Dolphins by 1–86.6%
Level after regulation0.9%
Jets by 1–816.1%
Jets by 9–1620.3%
Jets by 17+52.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +14.4 points to the Jets: the final margin was Jets by 23, without the luck Jets by 8.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Zuerlein, 34 yds made · 93% expected
  • J. Sanders, 46 yds made · 76% expected
  • J. Sanders, 54 yds missed · 63% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Dolphins 11 for 102 yards, Jets 5 for 105 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:48 Intentional Grounding on the Dolphins (Teddy Bridgewater), 8 yards +2% NYJ +0.5 pts
Q1 9:43 Illegal Formation on the Dolphins (Tyreek Hill), 1 yard · pre-snap +1% NYJ +0.7 pts
Q1 7:50 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets, 34 yards +8% MIA +2.9 pts
Q1 7:32 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% NYJ +2.5 pts
Q1 5:27 Face Mask on the Dolphins (Melvin Ingram), 15 yards, wiping out the play +3% NYJ +0.8 pts
Q1 4:47 Face Mask on the Dolphins (Raekwon Davis), 15 yards, wiping out the play +3% NYJ +1.4 pts
Q2 13:36 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets (D.J. Reed), 27 yards +2% MIA +2.0 pts
Q2 9:38 False Start on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MIA +0.6 pts
Q3 8:03 Defensive Pass Interference on the Dolphins, 8 yards +3% NYJ +1.1 pts
Q3 8:00 Illegal Use of Hands on the Dolphins, 5 yards +3% NYJ +0.9 pts
Q3 8:00 False Start on the Jets (Tyler Conklin), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% MIA +0.6 pts
Q4 14:56 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Michael Carter II), 34 yards +15% MIA +3.3 pts
Q4 14:03 False Start on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% NYJ +0.6 pts
Q4 9:22 Delay of Game on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYJ +0.6 pts
Q4 9:13 Face Mask on the Dolphins (Raekwon Davis), 15 yards +2% NYJ +1.2 pts
Q4 1:57 Unnecessary Roughness on the Dolphins, 15 yards 0% NYJ +1.4 pts

Dolphins penalties, every game · Jets penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Jets’ chance of winning

As low as 47% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jets were ahead in it, below while the Dolphins were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:50 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets, 34 yardsJudgment calls +8% MIA MIA: Punt
2 Q1 5:54 The Jets converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +7% NYJ NYJ: Field goal
3 Q2 12:14 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expectedThe Dolphins got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throws +6% MIA MIA: Touchdown
4 Q2 0:24 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expectedThe Dolphins got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throws +8% MIA MIA: Touchdown
5 Q3 5:30 The Jets were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected +13% MIA NYJ: Punt
6 Q4 14:56 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Michael Carter II), 34 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 1054 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +15% MIA MIA: Missed field goal
7 Q4 14:01 T. Conner dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 0 catchable balls before this +6% NYJ MIA: Missed field goal
8 Q4 13:19 J. Sanders missed a 54-yard field goalKicks · 63% expected for him, 35 of 51 from 45+ before +17% NYJ MIA: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • George Fant (NYJ T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Quincy Williams (NYJ LB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Max Mitchell (NYJ T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Bryce Hall (NYJ CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Denzel Mims (NYJ WR), out · 0.2 pts
  • Tua Tagovailoa (MIA QB), out, replaced by s.thompson · 4.9 pts
  • Xavien Howard (MIA CB), out · 1.2 pts
  • Byron Jones (MIA CB), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Austin Jackson (MIA T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Dolphins 1% · Jets 99%

Final margin
Jets by 23
Luck in points
14.4 for the Jets
Luck-adjusted margin
Jets by 8.6
Replay with same day's form
Dolphins 11% · Jets 89% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2022 games · Dolphins · Jets

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