luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 5 2022 · October 9, 2022

Titans at Commanders, Week 5 2022: who deserved to win?

The Titans beat the Commanders 21–17, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Titans win 5 of 10.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:09 left): the Commanders threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was picked, worth 26 points of win probability to the Titans.

Final

Tennessee Titans 21
Washington Commanders 17

October 9, 2022 · FedExField · Closing line: Titans −1

Luck index +50 Titans lucky · −50 Commanders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Titans win 5, Commanders win 5.

  1. 1 TEN 23 WAS 0
  2. 2 TEN 27 WAS 13
  3. 3 TEN 27 WAS 17
  4. 4 TEN 30 WAS 24
  5. 5 TEN 30 WAS 28
  6. 6 TEN 24 WAS 26
  7. 7 TEN 16 WAS 22
  8. 8 TEN 10 WAS 20
  9. 9 TEN 0 WAS 14
  10. 10 TEN 20 WAS 42

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Titans win 50% of them, Commanders 50%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Titans by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Titans by 17+11.2%
Titans by 9–1615.4%
Titans by 1–820.9%
Level after regulation4.7%
Commanders by 1–820.8%
Commanders by 9–1615.2%
Commanders by 17+11.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +10.1 points to the Commanders: the final margin was Titans by 4, without the luck Titans by 14.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Titans 8 for 69 yards, Commanders 9 for 71 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:43 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Commanders (Montez Sweat), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% TEN +0.8 pts
Q1 8:29 Offensive Holding on the Commanders, 9 yards, wiping out the play +3% TEN +1.7 pts
Q2 12:26 Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards +3% WAS +0.9 pts
Q2 12:01 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Titans, 5 yards, wiping out the play +4% WAS +1.0 pts
Q2 10:12 Offensive Holding on the Commanders, 7 yards +1% TEN +0.6 pts
Q2 8:00 False Start on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TEN +0.6 pts
Q2 7:14 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Titans (Dez Fitzpatrick), 10 yards +3% WAS +0.9 pts
Q2 2:00 Roughing the Passer on the Commanders, 15 yards +7% TEN +1.8 pts
Q3 3:23 False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% WAS +0.7 pts
Q3 2:36 Delay of Game on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% WAS +0.9 pts
Q3 0:19 Offensive Holding on the Commanders, 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% TEN +1.8 pts
Q4 9:25 Roughing the Passer on the Titans (Jeffery Simmons), 15 yards +5% WAS +1.5 pts
Q4 9:20 False Start on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% TEN +0.7 pts
Q4 7:08 False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% WAS +0.7 pts
Q4 1:07 Illegal Use of Hands on the Commanders, 10 yards +9% TEN +0.7 pts
Q4 0:53 False Start on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap +7% TEN +0.5 pts
Q4 0:24 Defensive Pass Interference on the Titans (Kristian Fulton), 14 yards +8% WAS +1.6 pts

Titans penalties, every game · Commanders penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Commanders’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 74%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Commanders were ahead in it, below while the Titans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 2:14 The Titans converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +8% TEN TEN: Touchdown
2 Q4 5:43 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +8% WAS TEN: Punt
3 Q4 3:55 The Commanders converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +8% WAS WAS: Turnover
4 Q4 3:20 The Commanders fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% WAS WAS: Turnover
5 Q4 1:07 Illegal Use of Hands on the Commanders, 10 yardsJudgment calls +9% TEN TEN: End of game
6 Q4 0:28 The Commanders converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +14% WAS WAS: Turnover
7 Q4 0:24 Defensive Pass Interference on the Titans (Kristian Fulton), 14 yardsJudgment calls · 5 flags in 1231 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +8% WAS WAS: Turnover
8 Q4 0:09 The Commanders threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throws +26% TEN –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Samuel Cosmi (WAS T), out · 0.8 pts
  • Chase Roullier (WAS C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Jahan Dotson (WAS WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Logan Thomas (WAS TE), out · 0.2 pts
  • Wes Schweitzer (WAS G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Taylor Lewan (TEN T), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Harold Landry (TEN LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Nate Davis (TEN G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Amani Hooker (TEN FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Elijah Molden (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Treylon Burks (TEN WR), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Zach Cunningham (TEN LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Bud Dupree (TEN LB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Titans 99% · Commanders 1%

Final margin
Titans by 4
Luck in points
10.1 for the Commanders
Luck-adjusted margin
Titans by 14.1
Replay with same day's form
Titans 50% · Commanders 50% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2022 games · Titans · Commanders

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