luckadjusted

Week 5 2022 · October 9, 2022

Titans at Commanders, Week 5 2022: who deserved to win?

The Titans beat the Commanders 21–17, but the Commanders played well enough to win it: they take 6 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 2.5 points to the Titans.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:09 left): the Commanders were stopped on 3rd & 2, worth 67 points of win probability to the Titans.

Final

Tennessee Titans 21
Washington Commanders 17

October 9, 2022 · FedExField · Closing line: Titans −1

Luck index +63 Titans very lucky · −63 Commanders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Titans win 4, Commanders win 6.

  1. 1 TEN 30 WAS 10
  2. 2 TEN 19 WAS 6
  3. 3 TEN 30 WAS 23
  4. 4 TEN 23 WAS 20
  5. 5 TEN 20 WAS 23
  6. 6 TEN 17 WAS 23
  7. 7 TEN 20 WAS 30
  8. 8 TEN 13 WAS 27
  9. 9 TEN 6 WAS 24
  10. 10 TEN 9 WAS 36

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Titans win 37% of them, Commanders 63%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Titans by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Titans by 17+5.9%
Titans by 9–1610.8%
Titans by 1–818.1%
Level after regulation3.4%
Commanders by 1–822.5%
Commanders by 9–1618.9%
Commanders by 17+20.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Titans by 4. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Titans by 12.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

When it happened

Commanders’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 74%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Commanders were ahead in it, below while the Titans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q4 12:38 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expectedR. Woods dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 18 catchable balls before this +9% WAS TEN: Punt
2 Q4 12:35 The Titans converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected +9% TEN TEN: Punt
3 Q4 10:42 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +12% WAS TEN: Punt
4 Q4 3:55 The Commanders converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +9% WAS WAS: Turnover
5 Q4 3:20 The Commanders fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% WAS WAS: Turnover
6 Q4 1:07 Illegal Use of Hands on the Commanders, 10 yardsJudgment calls +9% TEN TEN: End of game
7 Q4 0:28 The Commanders converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +14% WAS WAS: Turnover
8 Q4 0:09 The Commanders were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 54% expectedThe Commanders threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +67% TEN –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Samuel Cosmi (WAS T), out · 0.8 pts
  • Chase Roullier (WAS C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Jahan Dotson (WAS WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Logan Thomas (WAS TE), out · 0.2 pts
  • Wes Schweitzer (WAS G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Taylor Lewan (TEN T), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Harold Landry (TEN LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Nate Davis (TEN G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Amani Hooker (TEN FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Elijah Molden (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Treylon Burks (TEN WR), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Zach Cunningham (TEN LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Bud Dupree (TEN LB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Titans 96% · Commanders 4%

Final margin
Titans by 4
Luck in points
8.3 for the Commanders
Luck-adjusted margin
Titans by 12.3
Replay with same day's form
Titans 37% · Commanders 63% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2022 games · Titans · Commanders

More from Week 5 2022