2022 season · final
Detroit Lions, 2022: game by game
The Lions went 9–8 in 2022; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 7.6 wins. Luck added 1.4: the 7th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 4–5.
Every game
How often the Lions win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Eagles | L 35–38 | 7% | −7 |
| Week 2 | vs Commanders | W 36–27 | 54% | +46 |
| Week 3 | @ Vikings | L 24–28 | 23% | −23 |
| Week 4 | vs Seahawks | L 45–48 | 8% | −8 |
| Week 5 | @ Patriots | L 0–29 | 13% | −13 |
| Week 7 | @ Cowboys | L 6–24 | 47% | −47 |
| Week 8 | vs Dolphins | L 27–31 | 49% | −49 |
| Week 9 | vs Packers | W 15–9 | 35% | +65 |
| Week 10 | @ Bears | W 31–30 | 57% | +43 |
| Week 11 | @ Giants | W 31–18 | 37% | +63 |
| Week 12 | vs Bills | L 25–28 | 20% | −20 |
| Week 13 | vs Jaguars | W 40–14 | 92% | +8 |
| Week 14 | vs Vikings | W 34–23 | 77% | +23 |
| Week 15 | @ Jets | W 20–17 | 64% | +36 |
| Week 16 | @ Panthers | L 23–37 | 11% | −11 |
| Week 17 | vs Bears | W 41–10 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 18 | @ Packers | W 20–16 | 70% | +30 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Lions’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Drops | +0.26 | +6.5 |
| Kicks | +0.22 | +4.3 |
| Fumble bounces | +0.20 | +14.6 |
| Injuries | +0.14 | +4.5 |
| Rest | +0.06 | +2.2 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.03 | −3.3 |
| Judgment calls | −0.03 | −2.3 |