Week 8 2022 · October 30, 2022
Dolphins at Lions, Week 8 2022: who deserved to win?
The Dolphins beat the Lions 31–27, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Dolphins win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 9 points of win probability to the Dolphins.
Before kickoff the Dolphins were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:59 left): the Lions were stopped on 4th & 1, worth 12 points of win probability to the Dolphins.
Final
 Miami Dolphins | 31 |
|---|---|
 Detroit Lions | 27 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +49 Dolphins lucky · −49 Lions
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Dolphins win 5, Lions win 5.
- 1 MIA 27 DET 7
- 2 MIA 26 DET 14
- 3 MIA 37 DET 30
- 4 MIA 26 DET 21
- 5 MIA 20 DET 17
- 6 MIA 24 DET 26
- 7 MIA 27 DET 31
- 8 MIA 17 DET 24
- 9 MIA 14 DET 26
- 10 MIA 0 DET 20
Your call
Did the Dolphins earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Dolphins win 51% of them, Lions 49%, counting the 8% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Dolphins by 4.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Dolphins by 17+ | 7.5% |
| Dolphins by 9–16 | 14.2% |
| Dolphins by 1–8 | 25.0% |
| Level after regulation | 7.7% |
| Lions by 1–8 | 24.8% |
| Lions by 9–16 | 13.3% |
| Lions by 17+ | 7.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- M. Badgley, 42 yds made · 86% expected
- J. Sanders, 45 yds made · 81% expected
- M. Badgley, 26 yds made · 96% expected
Penalties: Dolphins 7 for 55 yards, Lions 6 for 30 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | Taunting on the Dolphins (Elandon Roberts), 15 yards | +5% DET +1.8 pts |
| Q1 4:09 | Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yards | +2% DET +1.7 pts |
| Q1 0:59 | Illegal Contact on the Lions (Julian Okwara), 5 yards | +4% MIA +1.5 pts |
| Q2 6:43 | Illegal Motion on the Dolphins (Tyreek Hill), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +3% DET +1.2 pts |
| Q2 0:18 | Illegal Contact on the Dolphins (Justin Bethel), 5 yards | 0% MIA +0.3 pts |
| Q3 9:40 | Defensive Offside on the Lions (Amani Oruwariye), 0 yards · pre-snap | 0% MIA 0.0 pts |
| Q3 8:01 | False Start on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% MIA +0.5 pts |
| Q3 7:42 | Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards | +3% MIA +1.3 pts |
| Q3 7:13 | False Start on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MIA +0.5 pts |
| Q4 14:27 | False Start on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% MIA +0.8 pts |
| Q4 13:47 | Defensive Offside on the Dolphins (Xavien Howard), 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% DET +0.9 pts |
| Q4 12:21 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Dolphins (Jaelan Phillips), 10 yards | +3% DET +0.8 pts |
| Q4 5:14 | Defensive Offside on the Dolphins (Christian Wilkins), 5 yards · pre-snap | +6% DET +1.0 pts |
Dolphins penalties, every game · Lions penalties, every game · All teams, 2022
When it happened
Lions’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 87%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 8:53 | The Dolphins converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +7% MIA | MIA: Turnover |
| 2 | Q1 8:15 | The Dolphins fumbled and the Lions recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +5% DET | MIA: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 11:35 | The Dolphins converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +5% MIA | MIA: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q3 3:50 | The Dolphins converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +9% MIA | MIA: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q3 0:17 | The Dolphins converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected | +6% MIA | MIA: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 5:14 | Defensive Offside on the Dolphins (Christian Wilkins), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 5 flags in 3054 snaps before, position avg 1 per 303 | +6% DET | DET: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q4 3:47 | A. St. Brown dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 42 catchable balls before this | +8% MIA | DET: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q4 2:59 | The Lions were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected | +12% MIA | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- DeShon Elliott (DET FS), out · 0.4 pts
- Tracy Walker (DET FS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Mike Hughes (DET CB), out · 0.2 pts
- Tommy Kraemer (DET G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Ifeatu Melifonwu (DET CB), out · 0.2 pts
- Charles Harris (DET LB), out · 0.2 pts
- Nik Needham (MIA CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Austin Jackson (MIA T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Brandon Jones (MIA SS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Dolphins 67% · Lions 33%
- Final margin
- Dolphins by 4
- Luck in points
- 1.8 for the Dolphins
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Dolphins by 2.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Dolphins 51% · Lions 49% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2022 games · 
Dolphins · 
Lions
More from Week 8 2022
- Ravens at Buccaneers BAL 27–22 · replay 80% for the winner
- Broncos vs Jaguars DEN 21–17 · replay 37% for the winner
- Cardinals at Vikings MIN 34–26 · replay 93% for the winner
- Panthers at Falcons ATL 37–34 · replay 59% for the winner
- Bears at Cowboys DAL 49–29 · replay 93% for the winner
- Raiders at Saints NO 24–0 · replay 97% for the winner
- Patriots at Jets NE 22–17 · replay 39% for the winner
- Steelers at Eagles PHI 35–13 · replay 99% for the winner
- Titans at Texans TEN 17–10 · replay 98% for the winner
- Giants at Seahawks SEA 27–13 · replay 91% for the winner
- 49ers at Rams SF 31–14 · replay 50% for the winner
- Commanders at Colts WAS 17–16 · replay 64% for the winner
- Packers at Bills BUF 27–17 · replay 67% for the winner
- Bengals at Browns CLE 32–13 · replay 81% for the winner