luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 8 2022 · October 30, 2022

Bears at Cowboys, Week 8 2022: who deserved to win?

The Cowboys beat the Bears 49–29, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Cowboys win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Cowboys were 78% favorites.

Final

Chicago Bears 29
Dallas Cowboys 49

October 30, 2022 · AT&T Stadium · Closing line: Cowboys −10.5

Luck index +7 Cowboys about even · −7 Bears

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bears win 1, Cowboys win 9.

  1. 1 CHI 22 DAL 16
  2. 2 CHI 24 DAL 27
  3. 3 CHI 35 DAL 40
  4. 4 CHI 14 DAL 23
  5. 5 CHI 17 DAL 29
  6. 6 CHI 20 DAL 34
  7. 7 CHI 19 DAL 36
  8. 8 CHI 14 DAL 35
  9. 9 CHI 17 DAL 43
  10. 10 CHI 3 DAL 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bears win 7% of them, Cowboys 93%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 20.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bears by 17+0.3%
Bears by 9–161.7%
Bears by 1–84.8%
Level after regulation0.5%
Cowboys by 1–815.8%
Cowboys by 9–1621.1%
Cowboys by 17+55.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.3 points to the Cowboys: the final margin was Cowboys by 20, without the luck Cowboys by 16.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Bears 6 for 45 yards, Cowboys 6 for 41 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:21 Offensive Too Many Men on Field on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CHI +0.6 pts
Q1 10:11 Offensive Pass Interference on the Bears (Dante Pettis), 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% DAL +1.7 pts
Q2 9:39 Illegal Forward Pass on the Bears (Dante Pettis), 5 yards +1% DAL +0.5 pts
Q2 5:28 Defensive Offside on the Cowboys (Dante Fowler), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CHI +0.6 pts
Q2 0:57 Roughing the Passer on the Cowboys (Chauncey Golston), 15 yards, wiping out the play +6% CHI +4.8 pts
Q2 0:57 False Start on the Bears (Dante Pettis), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DAL +0.4 pts
Q2 0:21 Defensive Offside on the Cowboys (Dorance Armstrong Jr.), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CHI +0.2 pts
Q3 5:35 False Start on the Bears (Trevon Wesco), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DAL +0.4 pts
Q3 5:00 Offensive Holding on the Bears (Cole Kmet), 10 yards +1% DAL +0.9 pts
Q3 0:52 Offensive Holding on the Bears, 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% DAL +2.0 pts
Q4 8:45 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (Anthony Brown), 6 yards 0% CHI +1.4 pts
Q4 4:58 False Start on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CHI +0.6 pts

Bears penalties, every game · Cowboys penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Cowboys’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cowboys were ahead in it, below while the Bears were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:50 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +4% DAL DAL: Touchdown
2 Q1 10:11 Offensive Pass Interference on the Bears (Dante Pettis), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 1 flag in 769 snaps before, position avg 1 per 412 +4% DAL DAL: Touchdown
3 Q1 5:24 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +4% DAL DAL: Touchdown
4 Q1 1:38 The Bears converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +3% CHI CHI: Touchdown
5 Q2 0:57 Roughing the Passer on the Cowboys (Chauncey Golston), 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 1 flag in 748 snaps before, position avg 1 per 277False Start on the Bears (Dante Pettis), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 1 flag in 769 snaps before, position avg 1 per 412 +4% CHI CHI: Touchdown
6 Q2 0:40 The Cowboys threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throws +4% CHI DAL: Punt
7 Q3 9:06 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +7% DAL DAL: Touchdown
8 Q3 5:17 The Bears fumbled and the Cowboys recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the CowboysSpecial teams +6% DAL CHI: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jourdan Lewis (DAL CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Ezekiel Elliott (DAL RB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Noah Brown (DAL WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Malik Hooker (DAL FS), out · 0.3 pts
  • Jake McQuaide (DAL LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Larry Borom (CHI T), out · 0.5 pts
  • Cody Whitehair (CHI G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Lucas Patrick (CHI G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bears 0% · Cowboys 100%

Final margin
Cowboys by 20
Luck in points
3.3 for the Cowboys
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 16.7
Replay with same day's form
Bears 7% · Cowboys 93% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2022 games · Bears · Cowboys

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