luckadjusted

Week 8 2022 · October 30, 2022

Bears at Cowboys, Week 8 2022: who deserved to win?

The Cowboys beat the Bears 49–29, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Cowboys win 9 of 10. The Bears had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 1.8 points to the Bears.

Before kickoff the Cowboys were 78% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 5:17 left): Return touchdown by the Cowboys, worth 10 points of win probability to the Cowboys.

Final

Chicago Bears 29
Dallas Cowboys 49

October 30, 2022 · AT&T Stadium · Closing line: Cowboys −10.5

Luck index +7 Cowboys about even · −7 Bears

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bears win 1, Cowboys win 9.

  1. 1 CHI 34 DAL 28
  2. 2 CHI 19 DAL 21
  3. 3 CHI 28 DAL 32
  4. 4 CHI 6 DAL 14
  5. 5 CHI 23 DAL 34
  6. 6 CHI 3 DAL 19
  7. 7 CHI 14 DAL 33
  8. 8 CHI 13 DAL 34
  9. 9 CHI 12 DAL 37
  10. 10 CHI 7 DAL 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bears win 7% of them, Cowboys 93%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 20.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bears by 17+0.3%
Bears by 9–161.7%
Bears by 1–85.1%
Level after regulation0.8%
Cowboys by 1–814.6%
Cowboys by 9–1621.0%
Cowboys by 17+56.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Cowboys by 20. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Cowboys by 18.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

When it happened

Cowboys’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cowboys were ahead in it, below while the Bears were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:50 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +5% DAL DAL: Touchdown
2 Q1 10:11 Offensive Pass Interference on the Bears (Dante Pettis), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 1 flag in 769 snaps before, position avg 1 per 412 +4% DAL DAL: Touchdown
3 Q1 5:24 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +5% DAL DAL: Touchdown
4 Q1 1:38 The Bears converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +3% CHI CHI: Touchdown
5 Q2 11:29 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +4% DAL DAL: Touchdown
6 Q2 0:57 Roughing the Passer on the Cowboys (Chauncey Golston), 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 1 flag in 748 snaps before, position avg 1 per 277False Start on the Bears (Dante Pettis), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 1 flag in 769 snaps before, position avg 1 per 412 +5% CHI CHI: Touchdown
7 Q3 9:06 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +9% DAL DAL: Touchdown
8 Q3 5:17 The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 19% expectedThe Bears fumbled and the Cowboys recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the CowboysSpecial teams +10% DAL CHI: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jourdan Lewis (DAL CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Ezekiel Elliott (DAL RB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Noah Brown (DAL WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Malik Hooker (DAL FS), out · 0.3 pts
  • Jake McQuaide (DAL LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Larry Borom (CHI T), out · 0.5 pts
  • Cody Whitehair (CHI G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Lucas Patrick (CHI G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bears 0% · Cowboys 100%

Final margin
Cowboys by 20
Luck in points
1.7 for the Cowboys
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 18.3
Replay with same day's form
Bears 7% · Cowboys 93% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2022 games · Bears · Cowboys

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