luckadjusted

Week 8 2022 · October 30, 2022

Broncos vs Jaguars, Week 8 2022: who deserved to win?

The Broncos beat the Jaguars 21–17, but the Jaguars played well enough to win it: they take 6 of 10 replays with the same day's form.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q4, 12:11 left): Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 18 points of win probability to the Broncos.

Final

Denver Broncos 21
Jacksonville Jaguars 17

October 30, 2022 · Wembley Stadium · Closing line: Jaguars −1

Luck index +63 Broncos very lucky · −63 Jaguars

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Broncos win 4, Jaguars win 6.

  1. 1 DEN 37 JAX 17
  2. 2 DEN 34 JAX 20
  3. 3 DEN 30 JAX 23
  4. 4 DEN 37 JAX 34
  5. 5 DEN 12 JAX 14
  6. 6 DEN 14 JAX 18
  7. 7 DEN 20 JAX 29
  8. 8 DEN 10 JAX 23
  9. 9 DEN 3 JAX 20
  10. 10 DEN 14 JAX 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Broncos win 37% of them, Jaguars 63%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Broncos by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Broncos by 17+6.1%
Broncos by 9–1611.2%
Broncos by 1–818.6%
Level after regulation1.9%
Jaguars by 1–824.4%
Jaguars by 9–1619.2%
Jaguars by 17+18.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Broncos by 4. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Broncos by 7.6.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

When it happened

Jaguars’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 88%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jaguars were ahead in it, below while the Broncos were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 3:23 The Broncos converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +7% DEN DEN: Touchdown
2 Q3 5:07 Unnecessary Roughness on the Jaguars, 15 yardsJudgment callsIllegal Contact on the Broncos, 5 yardsJudgment calls +8% DEN DEN: Punt
3 Q4 13:08 The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +8% JAX DEN: Punt
4 Q4 12:11 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +18% DEN DEN: Punt
5 Q4 8:51 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +9% DEN JAX: Punt
6 Q4 2:58 C. Sutton dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 42 catchable balls before this +11% JAX DEN: Touchdown
7 Q4 2:10 The Broncos converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +9% DEN DEN: Touchdown
8 Q4 1:43 The Jaguars threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 46% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +12% DEN –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Shaquill Griffin (JAX CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Ben Bartch (JAX G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Garett Bolles (DEN T), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Ronald Darby (DEN CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Cameron Fleming (DEN T), out · 0.5 pts
  • Randy Gregory (DEN DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Caden Sterns (DEN FS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Javonte Williams (DEN RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Baron Browning (DEN LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Jacob Bobenmoyer (DEN LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Broncos 79% · Jaguars 21%

Final margin
Broncos by 4
Luck in points
3.6 for the Jaguars
Luck-adjusted margin
Broncos by 7.6
Replay with same day's form
Broncos 37% · Jaguars 63% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2022 games · Broncos · Jaguars

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