luckadjusted

Week 8 2022 · October 30, 2022

Steelers at Eagles, Week 8 2022: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat the Steelers 35–13, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Eagles win 10 of 10. The Steelers had the bounces: drops alone were worth 3.5 points to the Steelers.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 79% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 2:01 left): the Steelers converted 4th & 1, worth 10 points of win probability to the Steelers.

Final

Pittsburgh Steelers 13
Philadelphia Eagles 35

October 30, 2022 · Lincoln Financial Field · Closing line: Eagles −11

Luck index +3 Eagles about even · −3 Steelers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Steelers win 0, Eagles win 10.

  1. 1 PIT 17 PHI 20
  2. 2 PIT 17 PHI 24
  3. 3 PIT 6 PHI 17
  4. 4 PIT 17 PHI 30
  5. 5 PIT 6 PHI 21
  6. 6 PIT 13 PHI 31
  7. 7 PIT 7 PHI 27
  8. 8 PIT 13 PHI 37
  9. 9 PIT 6 PHI 34
  10. 10 PIT 0 PHI 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Steelers win 3% of them, Eagles 97%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 22.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Steelers by 17+0.1%
Steelers by 9–160.4%
Steelers by 1–82.1%
Level after regulation0.7%
Eagles by 1–87.6%
Eagles by 9–1616.0%
Eagles by 17+73.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Eagles by 22. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Eagles by 18.5.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • N. Sciba, 38 yds made · 89% expected
  • N. Sciba, 29 yds made · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Eagles’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Eagles were ahead in it, below while the Steelers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:51 The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +5% PHI PIT: Punt
2 Q1 10:51 The Eagles converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected +9% PHI PHI: Touchdown
3 Q1 2:06 The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +5% PHI PIT: Touchdown
4 Q1 2:01 The Steelers converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 66% expectedDefensive Delay of Game on the Eagles (Brandon Graham), 1 yardsPre-snap flags · 6 flags in 1977 snaps before, position avg 1 per 277 +10% PIT PIT: Touchdown
5 Q2 14:09 The Eagles converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +7% PHI PHI: Touchdown
6 Q2 12:53 The Eagles converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +9% PHI PHI: Touchdown
7 Q2 7:47 The Steelers got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 50% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +5% PIT PIT: Punt
8 Q2 6:06 Offensive Pass Interference on the Steelers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +5% PHI PHI: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • T.J. Watt (PIT LB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Levi Wallace (PIT CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Larry Ogunjobi (PIT DT), out · 0.4 pts
  • Chris Boswell (PIT K), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Steelers 0% · Eagles 100%

Final margin
Eagles by 22
Luck in points
3.5 for the Eagles
Luck-adjusted margin
Eagles by 18.5
Replay with same day's form
Steelers 3% · Eagles 97% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2022 games · Steelers · Eagles

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