luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 8 2022 · October 30, 2022

Cardinals at Vikings, Week 8 2022: who deserved to win?

The Vikings beat the Cardinals 34–26, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Vikings win 9 of 10. The Cardinals had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 11 points of win probability to the Cardinals.

Before kickoff the Vikings were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 8:05 left): the Vikings converted 3rd & 5, worth 9 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Final

Arizona Cardinals 26
Minnesota Vikings 34

October 30, 2022 · U.S. Bank Stadium · Closing line: Vikings −4

Luck index +7 Vikings about even · −7 Cardinals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cardinals win 1, Vikings win 9.

  1. 1 ARI 20 MIN 13
  2. 2 ARI 30 MIN 33
  3. 3 ARI 16 MIN 22
  4. 4 ARI 24 MIN 36
  5. 5 ARI 10 MIN 24
  6. 6 ARI 9 MIN 26
  7. 7 ARI 6 MIN 27
  8. 8 ARI 10 MIN 34
  9. 9 ARI 0 MIN 29
  10. 10 ARI 6 MIN 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cardinals win 7% of them, Vikings 93%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cardinals by 17+0.3%
Cardinals by 9–161.9%
Cardinals by 1–84.5%
Level after regulation0.7%
Vikings by 1–811.6%
Vikings by 9–1621.6%
Vikings by 17+59.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.1 points to the Cardinals: the final margin was Vikings by 8, without the luck Vikings by 12.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Prater, 44 yds made · 84% expected
  • G. Joseph, 56 yds blocked · 64% expected
  • M. Prater, 34 yds made · 94% expected
  • Extra point missed · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Cardinals 10 for 67 yards, Vikings 10 for 86 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 Encroachment on the Cardinals (Leki Fotu), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MIN +0.5 pts
Q1 10:12 Horse Collar Tackle on the Vikings (Patrick Peterson), 15 yards +3% ARI +0.8 pts
Q1 5:15 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Vikings, 15 yards +4% ARI +1.4 pts
Q1 4:42 Illegal Contact on the Cardinals (Marco Wilson), 5 yards 0% MIN +0.2 pts
Q1 2:31 Encroachment on the Vikings (Dalvin Tomlinson), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% ARI +0.9 pts
Q1 0:39 False Start on the Cardinals (Zach Ertz), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% MIN +0.8 pts
Q2 11:29 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals (Zaven Collins), 2 yards +1% MIN 0.0 pts
Q2 5:54 Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 4 yards +1% ARI +0.4 pts
Q2 0:21 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Cardinals (J.J. Watt), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MIN +0.2 pts
Q3 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards +4% MIN +1.3 pts
Q3 14:31 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 7 yards, wiping out the play +2% MIN +1.6 pts
Q3 13:13 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Vikings (Dalvin Tomlinson), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +2% MIN +0.2 pts
Q3 5:47 Illegal Double-Team Block on the Cardinals, 9 yards +2% MIN +0.8 pts
Q3 4:49 Roughing the Passer on the Cardinals (Zach Allen), 4 yards +2% MIN +0.8 pts
Q3 4:07 Offside on Free Kick on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ARI +0.5 pts
Q3 0:59 Defensive Offside on the Vikings (Danielle Hunter), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +2% MIN +0.2 pts
Q4 11:49 Offensive Holding on the Vikings (Adam Thielen), 9 yards +6% ARI +1.5 pts
Q4 3:29 Defensive Pass Interference on the Vikings (Patrick Peterson), 12 yards +1% ARI +1.8 pts
Q4 1:21 Defensive Pass Interference on the Vikings (Cameron Dantzler), 11 yards +1% ARI +0.2 pts
Q4 0:56 Illegal Blindside Block on the Cardinals (Eno Benjamin), 15 yards +2% MIN +1.4 pts

Cardinals penalties, every game · Vikings penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Vikings’ chance of winning

As low as 42% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Vikings were ahead in it, below while the Cardinals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 3:13 The Vikings were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected +7% ARI MIN: Touchdown
2 Q2 0:50 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +6% ARI ARI: Touchdown
3 Q2 0:03 G. Joseph had a 56-yard field goal blockedKicks · 64% expected for him, 12 of 20 from 45+ before +6% ARI MIN: Punt
4 Q3 8:05 The Vikings converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +9% MIN MIN: Touchdown
5 Q3 1:06 The Vikings fumbled and the Cardinals recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% ARI MIN: Punt
6 Q4 11:49 Offensive Holding on the Vikings (Adam Thielen), 9 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 2612 snaps before, position avg 1 per 412 +6% ARI ARI: Turnover
7 Q4 10:46 The Cardinals fumbled and the Vikings recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% MIN ARI: Turnover
8 Q4 7:59 The Cardinals got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throws +5% ARI ARI: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Marquise Brown (ARI WR), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • D.J. Humphries (ARI T), out · 0.7 pts
  • Rodney Hudson (ARI C), out · 0.6 pts
  • Justin Pugh (ARI G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cardinals 1% · Vikings 99%

Final margin
Vikings by 8
Luck in points
4.1 for the Cardinals
Luck-adjusted margin
Vikings by 12.1
Replay with same day's form
Cardinals 7% · Vikings 93% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2022 games · Cardinals · Vikings

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