luckadjusted

Week 8 2022 · October 30, 2022

Cardinals at Vikings, Week 8 2022: who deserved to win?

The Vikings beat the Cardinals 34–26, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Vikings win 9 of 10. The Cardinals had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 4.7 points to the Cardinals.

Before kickoff the Vikings were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 1:06 left): the Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 5, worth 24 points of win probability to the Cardinals.

Final

Arizona Cardinals 26
Minnesota Vikings 34

October 30, 2022 · U.S. Bank Stadium · Closing line: Vikings −4

Luck index +12 Vikings about even · −12 Cardinals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cardinals win 1, Vikings win 9.

  1. 1 ARI 29 MIN 23
  2. 2 ARI 31 MIN 34
  3. 3 ARI 24 MIN 30
  4. 4 ARI 21 MIN 30
  5. 5 ARI 10 MIN 23
  6. 6 ARI 10 MIN 26
  7. 7 ARI 10 MIN 28
  8. 8 ARI 10 MIN 31
  9. 9 ARI 13 MIN 38
  10. 10 ARI 0 MIN 33

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cardinals win 12% of them, Vikings 88%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cardinals by 17+1.4%
Cardinals by 9–163.5%
Cardinals by 1–86.8%
Level after regulation1.9%
Vikings by 1–815.8%
Vikings by 9–1619.6%
Vikings by 17+51.0%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Vikings by 8. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Vikings by 10.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Prater, 44 yds made · 83% expected
  • G. Joseph, 56 yds blocked · 63% expected
  • M. Prater, 34 yds made · 94% expected
  • Extra point missed · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Vikings’ chance of winning

As low as 42% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Vikings were ahead in it, below while the Cardinals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:20 The Vikings converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +6% MIN MIN: Touchdown
2 Q1 3:13 The Vikings were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +7% ARI MIN: Touchdown
3 Q2 0:50 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +10% ARI ARI: Touchdown
4 Q3 8:05 The Vikings converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +13% MIN MIN: Touchdown
5 Q3 1:06 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expectedThe Vikings fumbled and the Cardinals recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +24% ARI MIN: Punt
6 Q4 10:46 The Cardinals fumbled and the Vikings recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% MIN ARI: Turnover
7 Q4 8:41 The Vikings converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +6% MIN MIN: Touchdown
8 Q4 7:59 The Cardinals got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +6% ARI ARI: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Marquise Brown (ARI WR), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • D.J. Humphries (ARI T), out · 0.7 pts
  • Rodney Hudson (ARI C), out · 0.6 pts
  • Justin Pugh (ARI G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cardinals 2% · Vikings 98%

Final margin
Vikings by 8
Luck in points
2.4 for the Cardinals
Luck-adjusted margin
Vikings by 10.4
Replay with same day's form
Cardinals 12% · Vikings 88% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2022 games · Cardinals · Vikings

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