luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 8 2022 · October 30, 2022

Packers at Bills, Week 8 2022: who deserved to win?

The Bills beat the Packers 27–17, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Bills were 78% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 8:51 left): the Packers were stopped on 4th & 3, worth 10 points of win probability to the Bills.

Final

Green Bay Packers 17
Buffalo Bills 27

October 30, 2022 · New Era Field · Closing line: Bills −10.5

Luck index +33 Bills lucky · −33 Packers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Packers win 3, Bills win 7.

  1. 1 GB 34 BUF 17
  2. 2 GB 31 BUF 22
  3. 3 GB 16 BUF 13
  4. 4 GB 14 BUF 16
  5. 5 GB 22 BUF 27
  6. 6 GB 23 BUF 31
  7. 7 GB 13 BUF 24
  8. 8 GB 10 BUF 24
  9. 9 GB 23 BUF 44
  10. 10 GB 6 BUF 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Packers win 33% of them, Bills 67%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bills by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Packers by 17+4.0%
Packers by 9–168.4%
Packers by 1–816.8%
Level after regulation4.8%
Bills by 1–823.1%
Bills by 9–1620.1%
Bills by 17+22.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +7.5 points to the Bills: the final margin was Bills by 10, without the luck Bills by 2.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • T. Bass, 42 yds made · 84% expected
  • M. Crosby, 38 yds made · 90% expected
  • T. Bass, 38 yds made · 89% expected
  • M. Crosby, 55 yds missed · 65% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Packers 8 for 58 yards, Bills 4 for 35 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 9:19 Illegal Use of Hands on the Bills (Dane Jackson), 5 yards, wiping out the play +2% GB +1.1 pts
Q2 7:23 False Start on the Packers (Amari Rodgers), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BUF +0.7 pts
Q2 4:07 Disqualification on the Packers, 15 yards +3% BUF +1.8 pts
Q2 0:17 Defensive Offside on the Packers (Preston Smith), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% BUF 0.0 pts
Q3 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Packers, 8 yards +1% BUF +0.7 pts
Q3 14:51 Defensive Offside on the Bills (Ed Oliver), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +2% GB +0.9 pts
Q3 10:34 Offensive Pass Interference on the Packers (Robert Tonyan), 10 yards, wiping out the play +8% BUF +3.3 pts
Q3 10:14 Defensive Holding on the Packers, 5 yards, wiping out the play +1% GB +0.6 pts
Q3 8:24 Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% GB +1.7 pts
Q4 14:03 Illegal Use of Hands on the Packers (Rasul Douglas), 5 yards 0% BUF +1.4 pts
Q4 13:15 Defensive Offside on the Packers, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap 0% GB +0.1 pts
Q4 3:42 Unnecessary Roughness on the Bills (Gabriel Davis), 15 yards 0% GB +1.4 pts

Packers penalties, every game · Bills penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Bills’ chance of winning

As low as 45% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bills were ahead in it, below while the Packers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:40 The Packers converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +2% GB GB: Turnover on downs
2 Q1 9:29 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +3% GB GB: Turnover on downs
3 Q1 8:51 The Packers were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +10% BUF GB: Punt
4 Q1 5:18 The Bills converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +7% BUF BUF: Touchdown
5 Q1 0:22 The Bills fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% BUF BUF: Touchdown
6 Q2 4:07 Disqualification on the Packers, 15 yardsJudgment calls +3% BUF BUF: Touchdown
7 Q2 1:17 The Packers got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throws +3% GB GB: Punt
8 Q3 10:34 Offensive Pass Interference on the Packers (Robert Tonyan), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 10 flags in 1735 snaps before, position avg 1 per 282 +8% BUF BUF: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Spencer Brown (BUF T), out · 1.2 pts
  • Micah Hyde (BUF FS), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Allen Lazard (GB WR), out · 0.7 pts
  • Elgton Jenkins (GB G), out · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Packers 26% · Bills 74%

Final margin
Bills by 10
Luck in points
7.5 for the Bills
Luck-adjusted margin
Bills by 2.5
Replay with same day's form
Packers 33% · Bills 67% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2022 games · Packers · Bills

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