2022 season · final
Green Bay Packers, 2022: game by game
The Packers went 8–9 in 2022; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 9.5 wins. Luck cost them 1.5: the 6th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 4–5.
Every game
How often the Packers win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Vikings | L 7–23 | 57% | −57 |
| Week 2 | vs Bears | W 27–10 | 88% | +12 |
| Week 3 | @ Buccaneers | W 14–12 | 53% | +47 |
| Week 4 | vs Patriots | W 27–24 | 62% | +38 |
| Week 5 | vs Giants | L 22–27 | 31% | −31 |
| Week 6 | vs Jets | L 10–27 | 15% | −15 |
| Week 7 | @ Commanders | L 21–23 | 85% | −85 |
| Week 8 | @ Bills | L 17–27 | 32% | −32 |
| Week 9 | @ Lions | L 9–15 | 66% | −66 |
| Week 10 | vs Cowboys | W 31–28 | 46% | +54 |
| Week 11 | vs Titans | L 17–27 | 15% | −15 |
| Week 12 | @ Eagles | L 33–40 | 41% | −41 |
| Week 13 | @ Bears | W 28–19 | 72% | +28 |
| Week 15 | vs Rams | W 24–12 | 99% | +1 |
| Week 16 | @ Dolphins | W 26–20 | 61% | +39 |
| Week 17 | vs Vikings | W 41–17 | 81% | +19 |
| Week 18 | vs Lions | L 16–20 | 43% | −43 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Packers’ favor.
| Kind | Points | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| Judgment calls | +24.9 | +1.46 |
| Injuries | +13.4 | +0.79 |
| Kicks | +8.5 | +0.50 |
| Rest | −2.6 | −0.15 |
| Fumble bounces | −4.7 | −0.28 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −8.2 | −0.48 |
| Drops | −25.8 | −1.51 |