2022 season · final
Green Bay Packers, 2022: game by game
The Packers went 8–9 in 2022; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 9.2 wins. Luck cost them 1.2: the 9th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 4–5.
Every game
How often the Packers win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Vikings | L 7–23 | 44% | −44 |
| Week 2 | vs Bears | W 27–10 | 87% | +13 |
| Week 3 | @ Buccaneers | W 14–12 | 38% | +62 |
| Week 4 | vs Patriots | W 27–24 | 52% | +48 |
| Week 5 | vs Giants | L 22–27 | 32% | −32 |
| Week 6 | vs Jets | L 10–27 | 14% | −14 |
| Week 7 | @ Commanders | L 21–23 | 92% | −92 |
| Week 8 | @ Bills | L 17–27 | 33% | −33 |
| Week 9 | @ Lions | L 9–15 | 65% | −65 |
| Week 10 | vs Cowboys | W 31–28 | 56% | +44 |
| Week 11 | vs Titans | L 17–27 | 14% | −14 |
| Week 12 | @ Eagles | L 33–40 | 34% | −34 |
| Week 13 | @ Bears | W 28–19 | 81% | +19 |
| Week 15 | vs Rams | W 24–12 | 99% | +1 |
| Week 16 | @ Dolphins | W 26–20 | 60% | +40 |
| Week 17 | vs Vikings | W 41–17 | 88% | +12 |
| Week 18 | vs Lions | L 16–20 | 30% | −30 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Packers’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Kicks | +0.35 | +8.8 |
| Fumble bounces | +0.28 | −6.5 |
| Injuries | +0.21 | +9.9 |
| Judgment calls | +0.19 | +11.9 |
| Rest | −0.07 | −2.6 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.14 | −6.6 |
| Drops | −0.69 | −26.6 |