Week 3 2022 · September 25, 2022
Packers at Buccaneers, Week 3 2022: who deserved to win?
The Packers beat the Buccaneers 14–12, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Packers win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: injuries alone were worth 1.7 points to the Packers.
Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:14 left): the Buccaneers’ two-point try failed, worth 20 points of win probability to the Packers.
Final
 Green Bay Packers | 14 |
|---|---|
 Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 12 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +47 Packers lucky · −47 Buccaneers
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Packers win 5, Buccaneers win 5.
- 1 GB 34 TB 10
- 2 GB 27 TB 13
- 3 GB 23 TB 13
- 4 GB 23 TB 17
- 5 GB 16 TB 14
- 6 GB 27 TB 30
- 7 GB 10 TB 16
- 8 GB 10 TB 20
- 9 GB 6 TB 20
- 10 GB 12 TB 35
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Packers win 53% of them, Buccaneers 47%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 2.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Packers by 17+ | 13.3% |
| Packers by 9–16 | 16.7% |
| Packers by 1–8 | 19.3% |
| Level after regulation | 4.8% |
| Buccaneers by 1–8 | 20.0% |
| Buccaneers by 9–16 | 14.6% |
| Buccaneers by 17+ | 11.3% |
Where the luck was
Take the luck out
The final margin was Packers by 2. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Buccaneers by 3.2.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- R. Succop, 45 yds made · 76% expected
- R. Succop, 45 yds made · 76% expected
When it happened
Buccaneers’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 65%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:36 | The Buccaneers converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected | +12% TB | TB: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 9:54 | The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +8% GB | TB: Field goal |
| 3 | Q2 2:09 | The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 34% expectedThe Packers fumbled and the Buccaneers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +10% TB | GB: Punt |
| 4 | Q3 7:57 | The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expectedThe Packers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands | +13% TB | GB: Punt |
| 5 | Q3 1:08 | Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +11% GB | GB: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 10:31 | Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Buccaneers, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags | +15% GB | GB: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 0:18 | The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 64% expected | +14% TB | TB: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 0:14 | The Buccaneers’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedDelay of Game on the Buccaneers, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +20% GB | TB: End of game |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Donovan Smith (TB T), out · 1.2 pts
- Mike Evans (TB WR), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
- Ryan Jensen (TB C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Sammy Watkins (GB WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Krys Barnes (GB LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Packers 44% · Buccaneers 56%
- Final margin
- Packers by 2
- Luck in points
- 5.2 for the Packers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Buccaneers by 3.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Packers 53% · Buccaneers 47% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2022 games · 
Packers · 
Buccaneers
More from Week 3 2022
- Steelers at Browns CLE 29–17 · replay 83% for the winner
- Ravens at Patriots BAL 37–26 · replay 68% for the winner
- Bills at Dolphins MIA 21–19 · replay 60% for the winner
- Bengals at Jets CIN 27–12 · replay 94% for the winner
- Lions at Vikings MIN 28–24 · replay 77% for the winner
- Texans at Bears CHI 23–20 · replay 72% for the winner
- Chiefs at Colts IND 20–17 · replay 5% for the winner
- Raiders at Titans TEN 24–22 · replay 54% for the winner
- Saints at Panthers CAR 22–14 · replay 78% for the winner
- Eagles at Commanders PHI 24–8 · replay 93% for the winner
- Jaguars at Chargers JAX 38–10 · replay 86% for the winner
- Falcons at Seahawks ATL 27–23 · replay 54% for the winner
- Rams at Cardinals LA 20–12 · replay 81% for the winner
- 49ers at Broncos DEN 11–10 · replay 45% for the winner
- Cowboys at Giants DAL 23–16 · replay 96% for the winner