luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 3 2022 · September 25, 2022

Packers at Buccaneers, Week 3 2022: who deserved to win?

The Packers beat the Buccaneers 14–12, but the replays lean toward the Buccaneers: they take 6 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 10 points of win probability to the Packers.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:14 left): the Buccaneers’ two-point try failed, worth 20 points of win probability to the Packers.

Final

Green Bay Packers 14
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 12

September 25, 2022 · Raymond James Stadium · Closing line: Buccaneers −1

Luck index +62 Packers very lucky · −62 Buccaneers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Packers win 4, Buccaneers win 6.

  1. 1 GB 36 TB 14
  2. 2 GB 29 TB 17
  3. 3 GB 34 TB 27
  4. 4 GB 16 TB 13
  5. 5 GB 21 TB 24
  6. 6 GB 17 TB 23
  7. 7 GB 16 TB 25
  8. 8 GB 17 TB 30
  9. 9 GB 3 TB 20
  10. 10 GB 10 TB 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Packers win 38% of them, Buccaneers 62%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Packers by 17+7.1%
Packers by 9–1611.7%
Packers by 1–818.0%
Level after regulation2.1%
Buccaneers by 1–824.1%
Buccaneers by 9–1619.1%
Buccaneers by 17+17.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.4 points to the Packers: the final margin was Packers by 2, without the luck Buccaneers by 4.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Succop, 45 yds made · 77% expected
  • R. Succop, 45 yds made · 77% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Packers 8 for 65 yards, Buccaneers 6 for 40 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 2:56 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% GB +1.6 pts
Q2 8:11 False Start on the Buccaneers (Scott Miller), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% GB +0.5 pts
Q2 7:15 False Start on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% GB +0.7 pts
Q2 2:02 Illegal Use of Hands on the Packers (Rasul Douglas), 5 yards 0% TB 0.0 pts
Q3 15:00 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Packers (Allen Lazard), 10 yards +1% TB +0.8 pts
Q3 11:35 Defensive Pass Interference on the Packers (Darnell Savage Jr.), 13 yards +2% TB +0.9 pts
Q3 9:50 Running Into the Kicker on the Packers, 5 yards, wiping out the play +6% GB +2.1 pts
Q3 9:38 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Packers (Rudy Ford), 10 yards +2% TB +0.7 pts
Q3 1:08 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +11% GB +3.2 pts
Q4 13:24 Delay of Game on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TB +0.6 pts
Q4 11:18 Offensive Holding on the Packers (Allen Lazard), 10 yards +1% TB +0.8 pts
Q4 10:31 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Buccaneers, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +15% GB +4.0 pts
Q4 0:30 Defensive Pass Interference on the Packers (Adrian Amos), 7 yards +3% TB +1.6 pts
Q4 0:14 Delay of Game on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% GB 0.0 pts

Packers penalties, every game · Buccaneers penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Buccaneers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 65%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Buccaneers were ahead in it, below while the Packers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:36 The Buccaneers converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +8% TB TB: Field goal
2 Q1 9:54 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +5% GB TB: Field goal
3 Q1 7:24 The Packers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% GB GB: Touchdown
4 Q2 14:12 The Packers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +6% GB GB: Touchdown
5 Q3 9:50 Running Into the Kicker on the Packers, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +6% GB TB: Punt
6 Q3 1:08 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +11% GB GB: Punt
7 Q4 10:31 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Buccaneers, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +15% GB GB: Punt
8 Q4 0:14 The Buccaneers’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedDelay of Game on the Buccaneers, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +20% GB TB: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Donovan Smith (TB T), out · 1.2 pts
  • Mike Evans (TB WR), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Ryan Jensen (TB C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Sammy Watkins (GB WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Krys Barnes (GB LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Packers 34% · Buccaneers 66%

Final margin
Packers by 2
Luck in points
6.4 for the Packers
Luck-adjusted margin
Buccaneers by 4.4
Replay with same day's form
Packers 38% · Buccaneers 62% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2022 games · Packers · Buccaneers

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